The new week of racing starts with an eight race, Wednesday afternoon card. There are three races carded for the turf, so the $3 All-Turf Pick-3 wager is back today, starting with Race 4. First post this afternoon is set for 1:00 (EDT).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 6 | 6 | 2 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 2 | 9 | 9,5 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 9,2,8 | DBL, PK3, PK6 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 7,3 | DBL, PK3, PK5,
$3 All-Turf Pick 3 (R4, R6, R8) |
|
| 5 | 2 | 2,11,4 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 6 | 9 | 9 | 8 | DBL, $3 Late PK3 | |
| 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | DBL | |
| 8 | 10 | 10,1 | 9 | 11 |
Race 1:
We’ll light the lamp with a $30K N3L starter allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. Some of these ladies are familiar with each other in this compact field. The one thing that sticks out to me is the lack of early speed signed on for this race. When Heartbeat (#6) was at her best, she was running in two turn races where she set the pace. Her last three starts have come in one turn races. Asmussen claimed her three back at Ellis and she was flat in her first start after that effort. After going off form, she was sent off at 16-1 in a seven furlong race at this level here on Opening Day. She missed the break and was last early on. She was moving well to get into second that afternoon, over a course that was kind to horses that were coming off pace. She’s drawn the outside post for this race today, but I think she has enough early speed to make the lead. Her last race could be a signal that her form is trending upward again. Even though Cara Felce (#5)was a winner at this level at Churchill in her last start, beating West Coast Dream (#2), West Coast Dream is the morning line favorite in this race today. She’s making her third start off the layoff and the two turn trip on the dirt should be more to her liking than the one turn mile race she competed in last month. Irad Ortiz caught fire here last week and he’ll get the assignment here. The short price offers little value, but she’s worth using on your tickets.
Race 2:
10 fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this $30K maiden claimer. Sister Wife (#9) is the play on top for me in this race after a solid effort with $20K maiden claimers in her most recent start at Churchill. She took the lead at the top of the stretch but could not keep pace with the race winner that afternoon. She takes a small step up in class, but I don’t think the level of competition is that far apart. She’ll make her third start off the layoff this afternoon while facing some horses that have some definite question marks. While looking combing through of the bloodlines of the firsters in this race, the pedigree of Christy (#5) felt very familiar to me. The reason is because her full brother, Enoughisenough, was a horse I liked on debut in a $50K maiden claiming race here for two year olds last Wednesday. That colt did not run a step that day, but there are still things to like with his sister who is scheduled to race for the first time today. She was entered here last fall in a $50K maiden claimer, but she was scratched after coming up lame. She has been sidelined since, but she’s been boasting a series of workouts that should have her ready for this today. She’ll be able to run with Lasix today, whereas her brother was not eligible. Brendan Walsh has had five winners from 23 starters at this meet thus far and he has good numbers with first time starters in maiden claiming races. As a homebred, this is probably an appropriate level for her to make her first start. These are the two that I’ll lean on in this race.
Race 3:
$16K claimers will go six furlongs here. This race features a pair of significant class droppers with Pinfire (#2) and Show Time (#8). Both horses offer different sets of question marks as to why they’re here and how they’ll perform. Pinfire posted two 100 Beyer Speed Figures last year and he was a handy winner in starter allowance company on this course last fall. Since that race, he has finished off the board in four straight tries, and three of those four races were not at all competitive. All of those races came against better fields, so the drop in class feels warranted. He’s started 21 times for the same group that purchased him for $80K and he’s earned over $354K on the track for them. Two years ago, he was an easy winner with $20K N2L claimers at Churchill and that effort put him on a nice run through allowance conditions. Show Tune on the other hand was claimed for $62,500 back in June. He’s been a profitable claim for Jacobson as he has a pair of wins and a close second place in that span. He struggled a bit in his last effort with $20K starter allowance types and now he takes a big drop in class despite being in fairly decent form. I do wonder if Jacobson is waiting for the other shoe to drop. Both of these runners make sense and if I’m playing the multi-race wagers, I’d feel the need to have them on my tickets. However there are question marks there that will keep me from just using them and moving on. I’ll make Lucky Shot (#9) the top pick in the outside stall. He’s making his first start off the Cameron Milligan claim. He’s been in decent form lately, finishing in the money in five of his last six starts, and winning two of them. He has early speed, which was playing better on this course as the week went on last week.
Race 4:
The Late Pick-5 and the All-Turf Pick-3 wager will be bookended by the two divisions of a first level allowance for fillies and mares going one mile over the turf course. This first leg drew a field of 11. I do think this race is going to be fairly formful. The morning line favorite in this spot is Smell the Lillies (#4) and she’s the top pick for me. She is coming off a strong effort in her second try over the turf last month at Kentucky Downs. She ran well enough in her turf debut two back at Ellis when she was making her first start in three months. That race gives me confidence that her form will transfer to the course here. This is not the deepest field for this condition, so I do see her as the most likely winner here. Moonlight Dash (#3) and Coco G (#7) feel like the two runners that have the best chance of pulling off the upset. Both horses will be trying a route for the first time and both fillies have a sprinter oriented sire. Neither Maclean’s Music nor Caravaggio have great numbers with horses they sired in their first turf route (5% and 7% winners, respectively). Both fillies have some stamina on the dam side though. Moon Dash, who is the dam of Moonlight Dash, foaled Donegal Momentum, who is an Uncle Mo colt who has a win in the Grade 3 Poker Stakes at this distance on the turf. After the Glory, who is the dam of Coco G, foaled More Than Glory, who is a two-time turf route winner. I do like the progression of races for Coco G, who is stretching out from 6 ½ furlongs to one mile in her third career start. She is a candidate to move forward, sp I’ll give her the narrow edge over Moonlight Dash, who has stronger figures, but more starts, all of which came in sprint races.
Race 5:
Brendan Walsh already has a pair of two year olds that were debut winners at this meet and today he’ll unveil Maranello (#11), who is a two million dollar Not This Time filly. She’s drawn the outside post and has been working well for her debut this afternoon. The dam did her best work on the turf and with Not This Time as the sire, I do wonder if she’ll be thinking grass in the near future. Her works are solid enough to play her in this spot, especially coming from a barn that prioritizes these meets at Keeneland. She’s going to be on the A line for me, but I’m going to side with a price and make Lakeside Rye (#2) the top pick. Her dam’s only other foal to race was a debut winner as a two year old on the dirt at Churchill. She sold for $130K at the OBS Sale in April of this year, suggesting that she looked the part six months ago in the sales ring. She has some nice works and could easily be flying under the radar in this spot. Colebrook debuted Percy’s Bar here last spring to win and last fall he teamed up with Luan Machado to send out Gallivant, who ran a big race on debut to be third and then went on to win the Bowman Mill Stakes as a maiden in his second start. Volatile gets 15% debut winners in dirt sprints, so I’m on board with playing her as a live longshot in this field. Ice Empress (#4) is the experienced runner that I’d want to have some coverage with. She put in a good effort to be second in her debut at Ellis at the beginning of August. David Fawkes has strong numbers off this kind of layoff and with second time starters. He’s has three second time starters win races since the beginning of September and two of them had a similar rest pattern to this filly. The dam’s six foals to have made it to the track have won 27% of their starts.
Race 6:
The featured race this afternoon is a N2X allowance race for three year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. Blast Furnace (#2) is going to take a lot of attention at the windows after a monster score in N1X company at Kentucky Downs in his last start. He won by over eight lengths after taking it to the field from the jump. However, I do believe he is a horse that really likes Kentucky Downs. While he was a winner on this course last fall, this feels like a bounce race as his races around traditional ovals are solid, but not spectacular. I’m siding against him in this race. I think current form is meaningful here, and while this is a step up in class, I love the way Ironsides (#9) is coming into this race. He has three straight wins at Gulfstream, Colonial, and Delaware, which are three very different turf courses. Those wins highlight his versatility and how sharp this six year old gelding is at this point in his career. Jose Ortiz will be the 6th different in as many starts. He certainly has picked up the pace after a slow first week here at Keeneland. I think he gets his picture taken in the feature today. Maui Strong (#80 is the backup for me in this race. This four year old gelded son of Kitten’s Joy has been strong in his first three starts of the year. His effort two back at Saratoga when trying this level for the first time was better than it looks on paper. He came up just short at this level in his last start at Churchill and I think he’ll be right there at the end again today,
Race 7:
The first leg of the Late Double is a $62,500 N2L claiming race for three year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles over the main track. THere are some definite similarities with the two shortest prices in this race, Chillax (#4) and Hop Sing (#8). Both horses have had several chances to clear the first level allowance condition and while both of them have boasted big figures at times, they’ve also come up short in every try against winners. Both runners are in for a tag for the first times in their careers today and while Chillax finished ahead of Hop Sing in their only career meeting, I think Hop Sing is the better horse. He’s making his third start off the layoff and his last race showed that he could get back to running those big figures that he was posting regularly in the summer of 2025. He’s been working well for Chad Summers at Belmont. I think shipping here for the solid purse and getting to run this distance at two turns instead of a one turn trip in New York likely attracted Summers to make the trip. He should get first run on Chillax in this spot and at the end of the day, I trust him to be in a winning position when they turn for home much more than I trust his rival. The backup for me in this race is Admiral Hall (#9). He broke his maiden on this course back in the spring, winning easily in a $20K maiden claimer. He was claimed that day and he ran okay in a few starter allowance races before trying the turf in a $30K N2L claimer at Churchill. Matthew Sims claimed him that day and he had him going well in two starter allowance races when going the funky one mile trip at Ellis. I think the traditional two turn layout here is more friendly to him and this feels like a spot where this five year old could take a step forward. Since he is five, I’m not sure how high his ceiling is at this stage, but he’s lightly raced enough to take a chance on if his price floats above his 8-1 morning line number.
Race 8:
We’ll close out the afternoon with the second division of the N1X allowance race for fillies and mares going one mile on the turf. I do think this division is definitely deeper than the first division, which could be worth noting if some of these horses face off against each other next month at Churchill. I with Lit Ship (#9) and Tramutana (#11) breaking from the outer half of the starting gate, there should be a decent scramble going on for the early lead. Tramutana definitely wants to be on the lead, but I do think she’s going to have to work hard to get there. She’s talented but I don’t love the spot for her. I left her on the C line in case there are some defections and while I might use her as a saver, most of my action will be focused elsewhere. I do really like this spot for Stubborn Lassie (#10) though. She came back from a solid race at Kentucky Downs last summer with a bigger effort when going to Churchill where she finished third in a three horse photo when facing the boys. She was sidelined for 10 months and likely needed that first start back at Ellis in July. She went to Kentucky Downs and ran well in a seven furlong race, which was probably a little short for her. She’s back at a mile and making her third start off the layoff while adding blinkers for Peter Eurton. I think she’s sitting on a bigger effort in this race. If you believe the pace is going to be solid, I do think you need to include Fiery Lucy (#1) on your tickets. I don’t love her as the morning line favorite, but I think the ingredients are there to set up her late charge. She finished about a length better than the top pick in that same seven furlong allowance race in her last start, which was her best effort since coming to the States. Prat and Walsh will team up with another live mount on this mid-week card. Lit Ship wants to be forward, but I don’t think she has to be on the lead. We’ll see how Irad Ortiz opts to navigate this transition to a route race after a pair of 6 ½ furlong sprints at Kentucky Downs. She did run a credible effort when running in the Jessamine last fall when going 1 1/16 miles. She paired her speed figure from her Kentucky Downs race that day. If she does that here, she’s going to be right there. However, this is a tough spot for her as well.
How to Read the Picks-Grid:
This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time.
The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race.
The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.
The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race.
The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.
