While we didn’t replicate the seven winners we had on top for Opening Day, it was still a very profitable day for our picks in this space yesterday where five top picks placed first. That runs our top picks’ record for the meet to an admittedly unsustainable 12/22 (55%, $4.69 ROI). Three cards left for the season to build on this success.
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Selections
- Race 1: 11-10-1-9
- Race 2: 7-9-3-6
- Race 3: 3-2-1-11
- Race 4: 7-11-6-10
- Race 5: 11-7-8-2
- Race 6: 11-3-1-6
- Race 7: 7-1-13-3
- Race 8: 12-10-7-4
- Race 9: 10-9-7-5
- Race 10: 7-9-1-8
- Race 11: 7-11-10-2
- Race 12: 9-2-4-8
Kentucky Downs Race 3: Aunt Mo (#3) at 9-2 or higher
As with the majority of Kentucky Downs races, this one looks wide open on paper. Morning line favorite Princess Attitude (#11) can certainly win here especially given how well she ran over this course last season, but the outside post is no bargain. I think all three runners drawn to the inside are worth using in this spot. Love You Anyway (#1) really burst onto the scene as a 3YO filly to watch with her eye-catching maiden win at Keeneland in the spring, but she’s only been seen once since when off-the-board in the Tepin Stakes back in June. I’m not giving up on her as a horse capable of winning a tough allowance like this and she might be a fair price. Bembridge Ledge (#2) has an encouraging run over the Kentucky Downs strip on her page when second on debut last fall. She’s come to hand for Mike Maker during her 3YO season with a maiden win at Churchill and these same connections already posted a 16-1 upset on Thursday’s card. However, my top pick is going to be Aunt Mo (#3) and I’m hoping we get an aggressive ride from Frankie Dettori to put her on the lead. She’s yet to win on the grass from two career tries, but her last effort signaled an affinity for the surface when a close third finishing ahead of Bembridge Ledge and just behind Scattitude who returned to win at Kentucky Downs on opening day improving her figure 7 Beyer points.
Kentucky Downs Race 4: She’s Got Will (#7) at 5-1 or higher
An allowance race with a purse of $220k is up next and once again it’s difficult to separate a bunch of these. I think there’s enough speed to keep them honest on the front end, but if one of them is able to scamper away it would be Rich City Girl (#10) who possesses an abundance of early foot. She’s proven over the course and distance based on a win here last year, I’m just nor sure she’ll present enough value in this spot. At the 8-1 Saturday Flirt (#11) is presented on the morning line, she’d be worth a wager, but I wonder if she’ll get bet down off that figure given her undefeated domestic record. She’s proven to be able to pass horses which is an admirable trait not often observed in Wesley Ward runners, but she’ll have to prove she can handle the added furlong plus here. My top pick is She’s Got Will (#7) who is a lightly raced runner for the Mark Casse barn. She’s another one who appears to appreciate Kentucky Downs as she was narrowly defeated in a $1M race for juveniles here last fall. She spent her 2YO season routing, but came back to win here 3YO debut going 5.5f unleashing a powerful rally to win at Saratoga last out. That is exactly the kind of page I like to back in these elongated sprints at Kentucky Downs. If you’re looking for a crazy longshot to include in verticals, I’d suggest Brindi (Ire) (#6). While she looks a bit tough to make on paper, everything Kelsey Danner sends out at Kentucky Downs is dangerous posting an ROI over $8 with all starters in the last five years.
Kentucky Downs Race 7: Brilliant Berti (#7) at 5-1 or higher
The parade of multi-million dollar races continues here with the $2.5M G3-Mint Millions Invitational. I can’t discount the chances of Goliad (#1) as he looks to repeat in this race, winning this event last year as part of two wins in a seven-day span at Kentucky Downs. His form coming into this event is questionable, but that was also the case last year, so he’s eligible to wake up back at these confines. However, his chances are a bit compromised by the presence of Epic Ride (#11) who could be a thorn in his side early in the race. Lagynos (#13) is looking to do his best Goliad impression and win the Mint Millions after already winning once at the meet. This Asmussen trainee barely broke a sweat demolishing the Tapit Stakes on Opening Day and received a lofty figure for that victory. I’m using him prominently, but this could be the last chance to get a square price on Brilliant Berti (#7) who has continued to progress towards the upper echelon of this division. He’s finished ahead of Lagynos in all three of their meetings this season and drew a better post than him in this spot. This Cherie DeVaux trainee has also proven to appreciate this course winning the $1.5M Gun Runner Stakes here last fall.
Kentucky Downs Race 12: Prodigious (#9) at 6-1 or higher
This nightcap could prove very important to some horseplayers given the proliferation of high-dollar live money tournaments featuring Kentucky Downs on Saturday. Mark Casse holds a strong hand in this event with both the morning line favorite Orbit (#2) and an intriguing debut runner Banker’s Jet (#8). The latter appeared to be training forwardly and Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride. The former was a solid third in a Saratoga maiden event on the Whitney undercard while contesting a fast pace. My only concern with him is there’s others that like to be pressing the issue early drawn immediately to his outside in Spun Legacy (#3) and She’s On a Roll (#4). I’ve actually made my top pick a different runner exiting that same Aug 2 Saratoga race in Prodigious (#9). He took notable money at the windows to go off 6-1 in that salty event, but his chances were nullified shortly after the start with significant trouble down the stretch for the first time. He shows an improved workout on his page on Aug 29th and I’m curious if that was fitted with the blinkers that he adds this afternoon. Either way, he’s bred to be a good one as a half-brother to the MGSW turf router Emmanuel.
#TheCheatSheet
2024 + 2025 Meet Statistics (thru 9/4)
All
Top Picks: 98-25-17-9 (26%, $2.50); Featured Horses: 33-7-6-6 (21%, $3.16)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 57-9-8-7 (16%, $2.52); Featured Horses: 22-3-3-5 (14%, $3.44)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 53%; B’s: 19%; C’s: 21%; X’s: 7%
