It’s opening day at one of my favorite meetings of the year in Kentucky Downs. I’ll be providing full card picks and a few spot plays on each day of the seven-day festival of turf racing for the In the Money Media blog and sending out a quick digest of the happenings of the day for ITM Plus subscribers.
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Selections
- Race 1: 10-3-12-9
- Race 2: 7-6-5-9
- Race 3: 3-4-7-6
- Race 4: 3-4-11-9
- Race 5: 8-4-6-11
- Race 6: 9-3-8-7
- Race 7: 9-7-1-6
- Race 8: 9-2-4-8
- Race 9: 1-12-10-11
- Race 10: 3-11-7-12
Kentucky Downs Race 4: Fortune (#3)
The horse to beat is towards the outside in Wesley Ward’s Margaret Burbridge (#11) who debuted against stakes foes at Monmouth first time out and ran a respectable 4th. However, at 3-1 on the toteboard that is almost considered chilly by Ward standards with turf sprinting juveniles, so I’m willing to look elsewhere for my top pick. Among the firsters, Donegal Factor (#4) is the one I prefer going out for the potent duo of Brad Cox and Florent Geroux. I just don’t think we’ll get anything close to 15-1 on those connections with a runner out of a winner on turf by a top turf sprint sire in The Factor. He does appear to be training forwardly, but I’ve opted for a runner in the field with some experience. Fortune (#3) didn’t do a ton of running at first asking at Ellis, but that race was dominated on the front end while he had to launch a rally from the back of the pack. Brendan Walsh’s barn had a Saratoga meet to forget, but it often heats up at Kentucky Downs. Over the last five years with all starters at the track he’s 17% with a $3.40 ROI. This colt adds blinkers and retains the services of recent European import jockey Vincent Cheminaud who I expect to have a big meet this year.
Kentucky Downs Race 5: Risky Reward (#8)
The fifth race of the day is at distance of 6.5 furlongs which has become a staple of the Kentucky Downs meet. In these events often times I’m looking for horses that can close or ones that are turning back out of route races. This is because I believe it is a stamina testing 6.5 furlongs and less about the sheer speed and brilliance you often see win at 5 and 5.5 furlong dashes. While Amalfi Princess (#6) is the horse to beat, I’m not so sure her edge is indicative of the difference in price she will be with some of her main rivals. I landed on Risky Reward (#8) who comes off a brief freshening for this spot. She was last seen in the Giant’s Causeway Stakes at Keeneland which comprised a field that is lightyears tougher than the one she’s facing today. In her three previous starts for this barn, she won twice and ran speed figures that put her right in the mix with the top contenders. She projects to get a good stalking trip and this barn knows how to win at Kentucky Downs. Over the past five years with all starters at the track Eddie Kenneally is 19% with a $3.18 ROI. That good form is evidenced by this runner who ran a good third in a stakes race over this course and distance last year. I also want to include Social Chatter (#4) who like my top pick has shown good form over the unique configuration of Kentucky Downs. She won a N1X over this course last year and has proven to be a reliable closing turf sprinter running well in stakes races in each of her last two starts.
Kentucky Downs Race 6: Just Call Ray (#9)
The Pick Five kicks off with a starter allowance where the two favorites look like the two most likely winners. However, I expect the odds of them to be reversed of what appears on the morning line. National Security (#3) is going to be favored and I expect him to do so at less than 2-1. He is just too obvious on paper after finishing a clear second at a similar level and going out for connections the public loves to bet. Based on his form I still prefer him to the ML favorite Wicked Genius (#7) who goes out for Mike Maker. I’ve almost started treating the Churchill turf course from this spring as its own surface. Some horses ran fine over it while others wallowed over it and ran up the track. For that reason, I’ve decided to try and find a more playable price. Just Call Ray (#9) doesn’t have much in the way of turf form, but the figure in his one turf race matches up with the dirt races he was running at the time. However, since then he’s shown to have taken a step forward in his recent races albeit on dirt. If he can simply translate that improved form back over to turf, his figures compare favorably to the shorter prices on the tote. Added to that is that his dam was a turf horse, and this barn does really well with dirt to turf moves. I also want to include Can’t Hush This (#8) who looks like a sneaky claim by Hutch Holsapple. I admit to not having known much about this trainer before seeing his name pop up in the entries of Colonial Downs, but he’s done very well with limited starters. Similar to my top pick, he’s run figures on dirt that make him competitive and would just have to translate to a surface he has some breeding for as sire Not This Time wins with 16% of his turf route starters.
