Kentucky Downs Daily – Sunday, August 31, 2025

Day 3 of 7

What’s Happening

Day three of the Kentucky Downs turf extravaganza rolls onto Sunday with an eleven-race card headlined by the $1m Kentucky Downs Juvenile Sprint Stakes, where G3 Sanford Stakes winner OBLITERATION makes his turf debut against a deep field, and the $1m Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies Stakes, which is wide open, to say the least. The card also features a loaded $500k handicap, where CHASING THE CROWN, returning from a 211-day layoff after running third at 64/1 in the G1 Pegasus World Cup Turf, could be a vulnerable favorite as he takes on several tempting longshots. Throw in five challenging maiden special weights and three oversubscribed allowance races with massive purses, and we’re set for another thrilling day at the Franklin oval.

What’s Happened

Saturday’s card at Kentucky Downs certainly lived up to the hype, with AG BULLET ($5.34), BEAR RIVER ($40.30), WIMBLEDON HAWKEYE ($6.54), and SPECIAL WAN ($6.44) taking the graded stakes races, shortly after German raider FLATTEN THE CURVE ($6.20) had turned the $1m Bowling Green Gold Cup into a procession.

Following a chalky start to the meet, favorites again did well on Saturday, winning six of the twelve races. However, we got a couple of classic Kentucky Downs style bombs lighting up the tote board too. One of those was GROUND SUPPORT, who paid $203.20 as the winner of race two for trainer Kelsey Danner – a conditioner we discussed in Thursday’s blog as one to keep onside during the meet.

Wesley Ward and Michael Stidham were also given a positive mention in Thursday’s blog and both of them managed to snag their second winners with victories in MSWs on Saturday. Ward’s runners obviously demand respect wherever they show up, especially in MSW races, and he will no doubt be sending out more live horses over the next few days. Meanwhile, Stidham is now 2-for-2 at the meet and, as noted in yesterday’s blog, 6-for-16 (38%; $3.84 ROI) with routers at Kentucky Downs since 2020. He really does knows exactly the type of horse required to succeed here, and he’s certainly a trainer to continue following.

Somewhat surprisingly, ‘Rusty’ Arnold is currently sitting atop the trainer standings after day two, having sent out winners on both Thursday and Saturday. His winner on Saturday came in the 1-mile opener with IN THE STARS. However, I’ve somehow so far managed to completely miss highlighting the fact that in sprint races at KYD, his five-year ROI is a positive $3.24 with 5 winners from 37 starters (14%). He’ll send six more runners postward today who’ll demand attention.

In other news, Mike Maker finally broke what had become a 51-race-long losing streak at Kentucky Downs as JUDICIAL REVIEW ($20.06) scored in the nightcap. The perennial leading champion has finally brought an end to his Kentucky Downs drought and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him now firing in winners left, right, and centre. However, we do need to remember that his record since the start of last year’s meet is still just 1-for-53.

Finally on the trainer front, I thought it was worth highlighting that Eddie Kenneally ran second in the G2 Ladies Turf Sprint Stakes with SIMPLY IN FRONT. Why is that important, I hear you ask? Well, it means that Kenneally’s record in stakes races at KYD since the start of last year’s meet is now two wins and one second from just three starters, with those three runners having been sent off at 12/1, 6/1, and 15/1. It’s a small sample size, I know, but an impressive set of results, nonetheless. Kenneally will send out LOVELIEST in today’s Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies Stakes (R11).

With regard to the riders, every race on Saturday was won by a different jock, meaning that Jose Ortiz still retains a clear lead at the top of the rider standings with five wins over Frankie Dettori, Joel Rosario, Tyler Gaffalione, Florent Geroux, and Adam Beschizza, all of whom are tied for second on two wins. Dettori, Rosario, ‘T Gaff’ and Geroux are fairly obvious names top pay attention to going forward, but don’t overlook Beschizza either: he’s scored a brace of victories and a second from just six mounts so far. Meanwhile, Irad also got on the scoreboard with his first mount of the meet on Saturday, but then had a frustrating day with no less than five second-place finishes thereafter! Still, he again proved that horses run for him here, and although it’s obvious to say so, all his mounts will require a second look.

Track Trends

Sprints (6F, 6 1/2F, 7F): 12 races

• Winner’s average position at first call: 2.5
• Winners’ average beaten lengths at first call: 1.62

As far as the track played on Saturday, speed really was the key in sprints, with five of the seven winners going gate to wire and JUDICIAL REVIEW, who won the nightcap, never worse than second throughout. Considering that three of those five winners paid $40.00, $40.30, and $20.06, I think we can safely say there was a bias present. In total, 9 of the 12 sprint races run at the meet so far have been won by horses positioned first or second at the first point of call, which is surely worth bearing in mind heading into Sunday.

One-Turn Routes (1M, 1M 70YDS): 7 races

• Winner’s average position at first call: 4.5
• Winners’ average beaten lengths at first call: 2.43

Another continued theme that ran through Saturday’s card was the advantage low drawn runners have in one-turn route races, with all three winners on Saturday breaking from gates 1 or 2. That means that since the start of last year’s meet, 19 of the 21 one-turn route races have been won by horses drawn in gates 1-6 when the rails have been out.

Two-Turn Routes (1 5/16M, 1 1/2M, 2 1/16M): 4 races

• Winner’s average position at first call: 4.75
• Winners’ average beaten lengths at first call: 3.75

With such a small sample size to work with at the moment, it’s impossible to find any track trends when it comes to two-turn route races. They played fair in terms of draw and running style last year and so far, that seems to be the case again in 2025.

Horses To Follow

Race 9: #6 AZIZAM (5/1 ML)

AZIZAM is a compelling prospect for the $1m Kentucky Downs Juvenile Sprint Stakes, bringing top-tier European form into this competitive spot. Previously campaigned by elite British juvenile trainer Karl Burke, this son of HAVANA GREY made a striking debut at Hamilton in May. Despite going off at 9/1, he powered away to a decisive victory over the talented MO OF CAIRO and Wathnan Racing’s highly touted STORM FORCE. He then backed up that promise with a stellar performance in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot, surging from the back to dead-heat for third, just two lengths off leading British juvenile HAVANA HURRICANE and a mere half-length behind DICKENSIAN, who later placed in high-quality stakes at Glorious Goodwood and the York Ebor Festival. That’s unquestionably the strongest turf form on offer in this race. Now, on paper, AZIZAM’s ninth-place finish in the G2 Richmond Stakes at Goodwood last time looks like a misstep, but the race dynamics tell a different story, as he was marooned in an isolated group of four in the center of the course and raced on ‘dead’ ground that consistently proved to be disadvantageous throughout the day. The four runners forming that group filled the final four spots at the wire, and it’s hard to believe all four completely underperformed. Forgive that effort, and AZIZAM represents serious value at morning-line odds of 5/1, considering what he’d achieved beforehand. Now under the care of trainer George Weaver for his U.S. debut, he’s posted a pair of smooth works at Saratoga in preparation for Sunday’s contest, and with an ideal draw in gate six, plus tactical speed to secure a prominent early position and experience on quirky British tracks to navigate Kentucky Downs’ unique layout, he looks well positioned to leave his last effort behind and run well at around 5/1.

Race 10: #5 NOISES OFF (20/1 ML)

In Thursday’s blog, I highlighted MOUNTAIN BEAR as a horse to follow, given his potential to improve as a fresh gelding, but he ended up scratching from that race to run in today’s tenth, a $500k handicap. Maybe I should be sticking to my guns and rehashing what I wrote about him three days ago, seeing as he looks even better in here; however, the 20/1 ML odds about NOISES OFF are just too tempting for me not to make him the pick. The case for him is pretty simple: this guy loves Kentucky Downs! In just two runs here, he’s broken his maiden by 6 3/4 lengths with a 94 Beyer and finished 3/4 lengths second to GOLIAD in this very race last year, posting a career best 96 Beyer. Both of those figures entitle him to serious consideration today, and as he now makes his second start off a 211-day layoff following a solid second to TAPIT SHOES at Ellis Park 49-days ago (where he posted an 88 Beyer, matching the figure from his prep run before last year’s big effort in this race), there’s a good chance that (like many horses do) he can again jump up to run a mid 90s Beyer and outperform his odds. He’s well drawn in gate five, is tactically versatile, 12-for-13 in-the-money with lasix on, and Paulo Lobo boasts a positive $2.95 ROI at KYD; 20/1 is simply too big a price to ignore, especially if you’re attacking this race vertically.

Race 11: #1 LOVELIEST (9/2 ML)

Trainer Eddie Kenneally went 2-for-2 in stakes races at Kentucky Downs in 2024 and looks to have a great chance of adding to his haul in the $1m Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies Stakes with LOVELIEST – a $150K daughter of SIYOUNI out of the stakes winning Aidan O’Brien trainee, LOVELIER, herself a half to O’Brien’s 4x G1 winning superstar, WINTER. With a pedigree like that, big things were likely expected of this gal on debut, and she more than delivered. Sent off at odds of 4/1 at Ellis Park, she adopted a favorable stalking position on the rail early and traveled well into the contest before finding a seam at the top of the lane and erupting to a facile 5 length victory, covering the final 1/4 mile in 23.80 seconds while leaving a very strong visual impression. The 85 TUS figure she ran is one of the fastest on offer, yet she appeared to have plenty left in reserve as she strode through the line with good energy, and following a sharp bullet drill in preparation for this race last week, a step forward looks more than likely. Her pedigree strongly suggest that she’ll continue to improve with time and racing, and with a suitable draw to stalk the pace in gate one, plus leading rider Tyler Gaffalione taking the mount, 9/2 seems more than fair.