Will Humphrey
Kentucky Downs, America’s only European-style turf course, launches its rich seven-day meet on Thursday with a thrilling 11-race card featuring 144 entries. Headlined by the $500k Tapit Stakes, where Brendan Walsh’s CAMEO PERFORMANCE tepidly heads the morning-line at 9/2, the day also showcases well-bred debutants in some challenging MSW’s, like the $350k half sister to G1 winner ARKLOW, RIOTOUS, who debuts in the opener for Wayne Catalano, and four time G1 winner and leading sire OSCAR PERFORMANCE’s half sister, NEXT AWARD, who goes in the second for trainer Brian Lynch. Add in some stakes quality allowances, fair weather and a wealth of betting opportunities, it’s a perfect start to a fiendish puzzle for bettors.
Anyone who’s played Kentucky Downs before knows how difficult connecting the dots here is, so for this first blog post, I’ve pulled out some jockeys and trainers to follow leading into the meet, analyzed a few track trends and biases from last year and highlighted three horses to follow to ensure that we all (hopefully!) get off to a winning start!
Jocks To Watch
Over the past five years, Tyler Gaffalione has dominated Kentucky Downs, racking up 49 wins from 301 mounts (16%) and securing four riding titles, including one shared with Irad Ortiz Jr. last year. Ortiz, however, in his first title win, posted a more impressive 27% strike rate (9-for-33) compared to Gaffalione’s 13% in 2024. Focusing on these two jockeys’ mounts will likely lead to winners, but their mounts tend to also be heavily bet. For bettors seeking value, consider these three under-the-radar riders who have delivered strong returns:
– Edgard Zayas: 7-for-38 (18%); $3.92 ROI
– Jose Lezcano: 7-for-30 (23%); $3.68 ROI
– Reylu Gutierrez: 5-for-29 (17%); $2.64 ROI
Joel Rosario (36-for-198; 18%) and Jose Ortiz (24-for-173; 14%) are also frequent visitors to the Kentucky Downs winners’ circle and will likely be back there again in 2025, as should Frankie Dettori. He’s been quiet in recent months, which may be a concern for some, but he excelled during his first full-time stint in Nashville last year, notching eight wins from 42 rides (19%). His experience on European turf tracks, similar to Kentucky Downs’ unique course, is no doubt a major advantage.
On the flip side, be cautious with John Velasquez. Despite his legendary status, he’s struggled at Kentucky Downs, going 1-for-27 in 2023 and 1-for-30 in 2024, for a five-year record of just 3-for-88 (3%). Whether it’s the quirky track itself or plain bad luck, his mounts have consistently underperformed here.
Trainers To Watch
Brendan Walsh, Joe Sharp, and Steve Asmussen shared leading trainer honors at last year’s Kentucky Downs meet, each saddling six winners. For years, these trainers have been reliable forces at the track, and they’re likely to shine again in 2025. However, the trainer on everyone’s lips at the end of the 2024 meet was Mike Maker, the meet’s all-time leading trainer who won titles in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2020, 2021, and 2022. After racking up 29 winners from 2020 to 2023, Maker stunned bettors last year by laying an ostrich sized egg and going a 0-for-44 with just seven in-the-money finishes – a rare misfire for the perennial champion. His runners typically draw heavy betting attention at the meet, so it’ll be fascinating to see how bettors react to his recent slump and whether his stable rebounds in 2025.
Wesley Ward also remains a trainer to watch over the next few days, particularly in two-year-old maiden special weight (MSW) races, where he’s boasted a 28% strike rate (8-for-29; $2.49 ROI) over the past five years. His prowess with juveniles is impressive, as we all know, but somewhat surprisingly, Brian Lynch actually outshines him when it comes to 2YO races at Kentucky Downs. Over the same five year period, Lynch has posted a remarkable 50% strike rate (5-for-10) with his juveniles in Nashville. Narrow that down to 2-year-old sprint races in particular, and his record is even better – a near perfect 4-1-0 from five starters, with an eye-popping $14.40 ROI. Regardless of the fact this is a relatively small sample size, numbers like that still make you sit up and pay attention.
Aside from the likes of Chad Brown and Brad Cox, who demand respect wherever they show up, several other trainers have delivered strong, profitable performances at Kentucky Downs over the last five years, making them worth tracking in 2025:
– Rodolphe Brisset: 25% (4-for-16); $5.12 ROI
– Kelsey Danner: 13% (5-for-39); $4.34 ROI
– Saffie Joseph Jr.: 18% (16-for-91); $2.54 ROI
– Paulo Lobo: 16% (7-for-43); $2.96 ROI
– Michael Stidham: 22% (5-for-23); $2.32 ROI
– Al Stall Jr.: 15% (4-for-26); $2.28 ROI
– Arnauld Delacour: 20% (4-for-20); $2.26 ROI
– Bill Mott: 13% (8-for-64); $2.16 ROI
With proven names like Maker and Lynch alongside high-ROI sleepers like Brisset, bettors have plenty of angles to explore at the 2025 meet.
Track trends
Kentucky Downs’ European-style turf course—known for its undulating terrain, sweeping turns, and long stretch—makes post position and running style critical for handicapping success. Let’s dive into last year’s race data from the meet to uncover trends that can boost your betting strategy this year. We’ll break it down by race type: sprints (6f, 6½f, 7f), one-turn routes (1m, 1m 70yds), and extended two-turn races (1 5/16m to 2 1/16m). Note that temporary rail settings (0ft, 25ft, or 40ft) affect the course’s shape, with rails set farther out widening the turns, often impacting post position biases.
Sprints (6f, 6½f, 7f)
In the 33 sprint races last year, early speed ruled the roost. A whopping 16 winners (48%) were first or second at the first point of call, and 18 (55%) stayed within one length of the pace throughout the race. Deep closers struggled, with only 5 horses (15%) rallying from five or more lengths back to win, a trend consistent regardless of rail settings. Post position was also a big factor. Gates 3-6 produced 14 winners (42%) overall, with a pronounced edge during the first four days when rails were set at 40ft or 25ft, accounting for 12 of 20 winners (60%). When the rails dropped to 0ft on day five, winners spread out, with gates 3-6 adding just 2 more wins from the remaining 13 sprints. The inside posts were a tough spot: gates 1 and 2 combined for just 1 win in the first 20 sprints (1-for-40), improving slightly to 2-for-26 when rails were at 0ft.
Betting Tip: Target horses with early speed drawn in gates 3-6, especially when rails are at 40ft or 25ft early in the meet. Avoid gates 1-2 unless rails are at 0ft, as they’ve been a losing proposition.
One-Turn Routes (1m, 1m 70yds)
The 28 route races run around one full turn showed a more balanced picture for running styles. Ten winners (36%) were within one length of the lead at the first call, another 10 (36%) sat between one and five lengths off the pace, and 8 (28%) rallied from five-plus lengths back. Post position, however, was a key factor, especially with rails out. During the first four days (rails at 40ft or 25ft), all 14 route race winners came from gates 1-6. When rails dropped to 0ft, the inside bias faded, with gates 7 and higher producing 8 of the remaining 14 winners. This suggests low draws are golden when rails are out, but the field opens up later in the meet.
Betting Tip: Favor horses drawn in gates 1-6 when rails are at 40ft or 25ft. When rails drop to 0ft, consider horses from wider posts (7+) as well, and don’t overemphasize running style—versatility wins here.
Two-Turn Extended Races (1 5/16m to 2 1/16m)
In the 15 races run at extended distances around two full turns, no clear trends emerged for post position or running style. Winners came from both low and high draws, with a mix of front-runners, stalkers, and closers succeeding, regardless of rail settings. This lack of bias suggests the course’s challenges at these distances reward overall horse quality over specific tactics.
Betting Tip: Focus on horse form, class, and trainer/jockey stats rather than post position or running style. Look for value in well-prepared horses, as biases are minimal here.
Horses To Follow
Race 9: #6 MECHAYA (6/1 ML)
Trainer Jimmy DiVito has long been high on MECHAYA, and it’s easy to see why. This talented daughter of LIAM’S MAP dominated on debut last year here at Kentucky Downs, romping by 5 1/2 lengths before she proved it was no fluke with a strong fourth in the G2 Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland – a better-than-looks effort. After a 197-day winter layoff, she then returned with another gutsy effort to finish third at 26/1 in the 5 1/2 furlong G3 Mamzelle Stakes in May, holding her own against SHISOSPICY and KILWIN. Her last outing in the G3 Regret Stakes at 1 1/8 miles was a rare misfire, possibly stretched by the longer distance, but she now drops into allowance company for the first time, cuts back to a more suitable 6 1/2 furlongs, and returns to the track where she shined last year, which should see her to better effect. With the addition of lasix for the first time and top jockey Gaffalione aboard, MECHAYA has the speed to secure a prime early position and looks set to run a big race at 6/1 as she makes her third start off the bench.
Race 10: #5 MOUNTAIN BEAR (5/1 ML)
The 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf runner up MOUNTAIN BEAR has failed to find the winners’ circle since making the USA his home, but that’s not to say he’s been running poorly. He ran third in the G1 Coolmore Turf Mile last October before posting Beyers of 93 and 94 in his two starts this year for new trainer Wesley Ward, despite the fact that the son of NO NAY NEVER not only had a bad trip in the G3 Kelso Stakes last time, but also wasted energy again with his mischievous pre-race antics. Today, however, he makes his first start as a gelding, which, if helping him to settle in the lead up to the start, is surely going to have a positive effect, and could well see him run a new career best as he makes his third start of the form cycle in today’s featured Tapit Stakes. He’s untried around Kentucky Downs, but his experience racing in Europe when trained by Aidan O’Brien, in particular at testing tracks like Goodwood where he finished third in the G2 Vintage Stakes, provides confidence he’ll handle the track no problem, and with a favorable draw in gate five, plus an honest pace forecast, he seems a live player once again at 5/1 on the morning-line.
Race 11: #4 MONTADOR (8/1 ML)
Over the last five years, Michael Stidham has recorded an impressive 5 wins from 15 starters in route races at Kentucky Downs, good for a $3.56 ROI, which makes MONTADOR of significant interest in Thursday’s nightcap. This Godolphin owned and bred son of NYQUIST was bet down to even money on debut last year, finished second to next out stake winner PASCALINE, then he went to the sidelines for 334-days before he resurfaced on the turf at Colonial in July. He powered through the line in front by a full length over CHEVAL DE GUERRE that day – earning a 72 Beyer – only to be DQ’d for interference in the stretch and placed last. Deserving of the DQ or not, that effort showcased his talent, as he not only passed the eye test but also had the form validated when CHEVAL DE GUERRE returned to win an allowance with a 78 Beyer next out. Afforded another chance against maidens, Stidham now stretches his charge out to a route of ground for the first time, which, based on his running style and pedigree – being out of 2018 Glen Falls Stakes (G2) winner LADY MONTDORE and a grandson of the G1 winning mare HYSTERICALADY – should see him to great effect. He’s drawn drawn cozily draw in gate four, has Brian Hernandez Jr up, (Hernandez: 3-for-9 with Stidham over the last year; $5.58 ROI), and looks to have an excellent chance of shedding his maiden tag once and for all.
