Please welcome new ITM contributor, Rich Mattei. Follow Rich on Twitter as he will be covering racing from Laurel Park.
Laurel Park Friday, February 12th, 2021
Best Bet: Race 8: (5) Prince James
Longshot: Race 5: (8) Revolutionary Road
Race 1:
(3) Golden Moon Shine could be the speed stretching out after a maiden score last time out. Can take this field wire to wire. (5) My Way Or Else had to do most of the dirt work last time out being up on the pace, gets to cut back half a furlong which could help in this spot. (6) Quickstrike will have to improve after breaking her maiden last time out. She has a trainer who excels well with horses getting first-time Lasix (45%) so improving may not be out of the question here.
Selections: 3-5-6
Race 2:
(2) Pat’s Factor was favored last time out in his debut but did little in that spot. Could improve second time out on the stretch out. (1) Strictly Business is cutting back to the one turn here. She has been far back in paces that were lively, and she could be a little closer as the pace should not be as fast as what she has seen in recent starts. The drop in class will also help. (5) Manklin Creek improved for a trainer who does good work on the circuit, the 0 for 8 is a scary proposition at a short price but is strictly the one to beat.
Selections: 2-1-5
Race 3:
(8) Falcon’s View takes a drop-in class here. Throw out the last race as it was on a grass course with moisture in it. Her dirt races class up well with these on the Beyer scale. Hopefully, she can regain that form from last year. (4) Catch The Sky has a race three back that makes her competitive at a price. She could see a similar pace scenario as last race where she closed well to win. It is also interesting that she was claimed last time out as well. (10) Stay Out will easily beat this field if she races back to her race two starts ago. Gets an outside draw and will be forwardly placed.
Selections: 8-4-10
Race 4:
(5) Taylor’s Chrome was shuffled back at a key moment in the race last time out and still closed on to be third. She will have to close in this race as she is cutting back in distance in a race that seems most horses need to be forwardly placed. (2) Paradise Song got a great trip to win last time, but her race two back is what is more intriguing here. She was bet into the teeth of a heavy favorite in Caramel Swirl, but the winner Miss Brazil, ran a huge race that afternoon receiving a Beyer in the 90’s while also coming back to win a Stakes at Aqueduct on Monday. Should be a factor in this one. (6) Not On My Watch has been improving on the Beyer scale each start and should get a stalking trip from the outside.
Selections: 5-2-6
Race 5:
(8) Revolutionary Road could get a good set up here. There is a lot of speed in this race, but he will not be too far back as he has some speed to him to where he can be in the second flight behind the leaders. Throw out his race last time out as it was too far and he was between horses over sloppy track two starts back. Has a big shot against this group. (3) Wonder In is the horse to beat and catch, but there is plenty of speed in here which could hinder his chances. (2) Smart Step could get a clean inside run as last time out to complete the exotics once again.
Selections: 8-3-2
Race 6:
(2) No Chance Given is out of a dam who won on debut so winning early is in her pedigree. She should be more forwardly placed as she should be more professional than last time out. (5) Determined One could be a pace factor here after showing speed against better before fading last time out. (3) Claire’s Darling is a factor here as her trainer is 32% first off the claim. Interesting to see her move up in class and Claudio protects her with the claiming waiver.
Selections: 2-5-3
Race 7:
(6) Excellorator has reeled off two straight wins up north. This is a very astute spot for trainer Michael Miceli, who rarely ships to Maryland. He also knows how to keep his horses in good form as he is 31% with horses, who have won their last start. (8) Silent Service won easily on debut and now draws outside. He will have to get faster to win this race but can improve second start out of the box. (2) Sue Loves Barbados had to chase last time out to a loose leader, but this race will be different as he can stalk and make one run.
Selections: 6-8-2
Race 8:
(5) Prince James raced very well last time out cutting out the fractions there. He has had to chase loose leaders in his starts two and three back. He will have a few horses to target upfront, including the favorite (10) Gentleman Joe who gives up the lead late which will give him an advantage against the closers as he will have first run. (1) Sassy King could close in the end to pick up a piece as there are horses in this race stretching out which should ensure some pace.
Selections: 5-10-1
Race 9:
(9) The Exception lost position in his last race but still closed well. His race two back against tougher makes him a major player in this race. (11) Company Clown is another horse who ran against tougher in his recent start, gets a cozy draw to the outside, and can stalk the leaders. (10) Stand My Ground gets to the cutback in distance here, but his race two back was better than it looks as he made a middle move in that race before flattening out.
Selections: 9-11-10
