Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 4-Here On Business (Race 5)
Race #1: Selections: 1-5-3
1-Mystic Ride is a $425k Keeneland purchase by Mystic Guide, who is 0-for-15 with his juvenile debuting prodigy. However, Team Baffert is 13-for-26 (50%) overall with firsters at Los Al the past five years and 5-for-6 with their last group of debuting juveniles hitting the track since last December. This colt has trained sharply over at Del Mar for today’s unveiling. The Sadler-trained 5-Gallant Jack is by multiple Grade 1 winner Jack Christopher, who is an above-average 16% with his juvenile firsters. This colt has some noteworthy drills on the worktab, including a :47 flat four furlongs on Aug. 24. 3-Bid was beaten by double digits in both Del Mar outings, but holds the experience edge over the rest of this field for top barn.
Race #2: Selections: 1-4-5-6
The Baffert-trained 1-Furiosity (by Into Mischief) flashed good speed before fading badly in a disappointing unveiling Aug. 22, but can bounce back today in a big way in start number two with blinkers removed. This barn is 8-for-13 (62%) overall with second-time starters at Los Al the past five years. 4-Stormy Sunset is a logical fit after her 9-1 runner-up grass debut try over a pair of today’s returning rivals. Team O’Neill sends out a pair of fillies. 5-Janie Not Jeanie goes turf to dirt, adds blinkers, and shortens back up to a sprint. This daughter of Mandaloun fired a bullet five panels over the track Sept. 2 and is likely to bounce back this afternoon after pressing the pace and fading to fifth in last. Her stablemate 6-Vino Vino Vino flashed decent speed before fading to sixth in an OK debut and is likely to move forward in start number two going turf to dirt for a barn that has sent out all live runners in this condensed meet.
Race #3: Selections: 7-2-4
Placed first via DQ two-back here at Los Al and in the money 9 of 11 starts, 7-Proud Racer is a snug fit again this afternoon, moving back to dirt and taking a sizable class plunge. The gelding’s affinity for finishing underneath is a concern, no doubt, but he should be able to dispose of this $6,250 claiming level. 2-Shady Gem was trounced last time when stepping up to face winners, but slashes his claiming tag in half this afternoon and was a maiden winner over this course two back. The gelding figures for another upfront pressing journey this afternoon. 4-Amador was well beaten in both starts at Del Mar since shipping west but gets significant class relief today for Mullins and might have found the right competitive level.
Race #4: Selections: 4-5-6
4-Lead Pipe Joe drops in class, making the third try of the current form cycle off an improving Beyer pattern for trainer Andy Mathis and should be along in time to run down this inferior group on the quick turnaround. A winner of three of his last four starts under the Los Al lights, 5-Golf Drama returns to the bigger afternoon layout this afternoon, second off the bench, and figures for another upfront pressing trip. The lightly raced 5-year-old gelding 6-Pine Run must avoid a pace duel with Golf Drama but comes off a nice win under the lights Aug. 22 and now goes first off the claim for trainer Jesus Mendoza, who is 4-for-20 (20%) with newly acquired purchases the past five years.
Race #5: Selections: 4-8-7
A beaten 4-5 favorite in last, 4-Here On Business drops in for a first-time tag today in career try number three for trainer Dean Pederson. This barn is 6-for-16 (38%) with MDSW to MDCLM class droppers the past five years, and this gelded son of Catalina Cruiser has trained sharply since that last disappointing July 19 Del Mar 5 ½-furlong sprint try, including a :58 flat bullet drill on Sept. 11. 8-Jetaway has lost as the public betting choice in the last pair but now goes first off the Peter Miller claim. A BIG win threat if he can run back to that (78) Beyer from two back. 7-Sun Chaser goes first off the Victor Garcia claim and has trained well since last seen finishing a well-beaten seventh at Del Mar on July 25. This barn has solid stats with all their newly acquired purchases and can’t be ignored.
Race #6: Selections: 7-2-8
7-Blame It On Abby ran an even fourth when stepping up to face winners on Aug. 23 and now slashes her claiming tag in half for Miller in what looks like a more appropriate spot to get back on track. 2-Definitely Prbable returns off nearly a four-month freshening today for conditioner Vann Belvoir and has trained steadily locally for this afternoon’s return to action. This barn has sent out a pair of live runners this short Thoroughbred afternoon meet stand. 8-Vronaway was outrun in last but also gets some sizable class relief this afternoon, and this filly ran well in her lone try over this racetrack last December.
Race #7: Selections: 1-8-6
Turf to dirt 1-Ryan’s Girl is a multiple winner over the track and distance and will appreciate getting back to her preferred surface this afternoon for an underrated barn. She was a game winner over the strip two back. 8-Shop Till You Drop loves this unique strip (3-2-1-0) and the 5 ½ furlongs (5-3-2-0) and has run two sharp races this current campaign, one over this course July 3 and a sharp runner-up try at Del Mar July 30. The outside draw gives Ayuso some options, and the 5-year-old mare is a major player here. 6-Harney Lane goes first off the Andy Mathis claim after a solid second on Aug. 30. This mare drew off to a strong 3 ¼-length score when last seen over the afternoon layout back on July 4 and returned protected this afternoon.
Race #8: Selections: 8-7-4
8-Shady Stripes is drawn outside with good early zip for trainer Peter Miller and slashes her claiming tag in half today after a dismal effort last week, when she was tough to load and faded quickly. Perhaps a better try is in store with improved pre-race antics second off the claim. 7-Alix hasn’t shown much in three starts since breaking her maiden last April, but removes the blinkers today on the class drop for Hess and could spring to life in her third start of the current form cycle over this new course. 4-Savannaha Big Girl rallied for the place spot under the lights in a short field when dropped to the $3,500-claiming class bottom Aug. 30, and might be able to slug up for a piece of this.
