Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 7-See Through It (Race 6)
Race #1: Selections: 6-4-2
6-Dad’s Bad Bunny opened up a big lead before getting leg-weary late and holding on safely by a half-length for the maiden-breaking score over this course three-back. The 4-year-old filly returns to the Los Al afternoon layout today looking for win number two on the class drop and is set to wing again with this afternoon’s outside draw. 4-Pride of Queens flashed speed and tired quickly to finish a well-beaten sixth but is likely to move forward today on the class drop, second off the six-month freshening for Team O’Neill. 2-Big Coin has hit the board in half of her starts over the afternoon layout and drops a notch after a weakening, non-threatening sixth at 36-1 over the layout last week.
Race #2: Selections: 1-3-6
1-Twisted Humor has speed and the rail and has proven to be just as effective on both Los Al courses. This 3-year-old filly has won two of her last three starts, which includes a 1,000-yard score in last on Aug. 30 and a 5 ½-furlong maiden-claiming six-length romp at the end of June. Claimed out of her last two tries, 3-Jasmina now goes out for the Hess barn after the Aug. 16 purchase, exiting as a beaten favorite third. This daughter of Listing was a blowout 5-length maiden winner over this course last June. 6-Elite Heat (GB) has never tried dirt in 10 career starts for Peter Miller, but this course is traditionally kind to turf-pedigree-geared runners, and this barn has sent out all live stock thus far.
Race #3: Selections: 2-6-3
2-A P Oxbow was 10th and last in a poor showing on debut Sept. 7 at Del Mar but drops in for a tag today in start number two for Team O’Neil and is eligible to get some major form reversal for the top barn. O’Neill is 4 for 7 (57%) with a $3.60 ROI over the past 4 years at Los Al with MDSW to MDCLM second-time starter class droppers. 6-Inca has the speed to clear this field but has been hard-pressed to hang around at five panels, and thus six furlongs may be a stretch despite getting a jump on these early on. She does get in light again, however. 3-Oscar Storm goes turf-to-dirt on the turnback in distance while dropping in for a first-time tag. Improvement likely.
Race #4: Selections: 4-2-1
A disappointing effort over the evening program in last, 4-Zombo Bombo was a winner over this course and level three back by 2 ¼ lengths and is a logical threat returning to the afternoon layout against $12.5k claimers. The veteran 8-year-old gelding 2-Atomic Drop ran well enough when third here last week off the 3 ½-month mini-freshening and figures to get another favorable upfront pressing journey. 1-Daniel’s Magic goes turf to dirt and drops from $28k claimers down to $12,500 this afternoon for trainer Craig Dollase. This 8-year-old gelding finished an OK fourth against far better in a lone try over this course this past July and gets a 7 lb. bug boy for this.
Race #5: Selections: 5-8-1
5-Ballyhooligan returns off the mini-freshening for a new barn after finishing a disappointing, tiring sixth as the betting choice over this strip back on July 3, but should prefer the turnback in distance today for his new conditioner. The gelded son of McKinzie has been training smartly over at San Luis Rey for today’s return to action. 8-Bet the Om has been equally effective in both the afternoon and evening Los Al programs and ultra-consistent, hitting the board in five straight. 1-Rollinwithpolan has speed and the rail and takes a sizable class plunge today for Sergio Morfin. The gelded son of I’ll Have Another figures to be hustled along from the fence by Vargas and take this group as far as he can on the front end.
Race #6: Selections: 7-6-5
7-See Through It is a Los Al course specialist, having won 8 of 12 starts here and 16 of 57 lifetime. The 9-year-old veteran gelding returns to his favorite venue and figures tough to overhaul in this spot this afternoon. He won back-to-back the last time he was here in early summer. A beaten favorite in last 6-Alpine Thunder is a multiple winner over the track and should move forward, second off the bench. 5-Supernal goes first off the Ron Ellis claim and is 1-for-1 over the Los al afternoon course. This top barn is a solid 8-for-27 (30%) with a lofty $3.44 ROI with new acquisitions in the past five years, and he figures to be on or close to the lead this afternoon.
Race #7: Selections: 6-4-7
6-List My Biz has speed off an improving Beyer pattern and makes the key third career try today for conditioner Antonio Garcia. 4-Snapshot takes a sizable class plunge while making the third start of the current form cycle and has to be considered a win threat against this inferior group this afternoon with a better break. The filly ran a better-than-looks fifth after stumbling at the start in Del Mar’s 5 ½-furlong sprint in last. The other Garcia-trained filly, 7-Lively Girl, restores blinkers on the turnback in distance.
Race #8: Selections: 1-4-7
1-Nineteenth Hole has some holes for sure and question marks. He’s never tried dirt in six starts and never sprinted six furlongs. The 4-year-old gelding might fit right at home with both, however. He’s by Clubhouse Ride (17% dirt sprinters) and has trained well over the local Los Al surface. He goes first off the July 31 claim and should offer some value here. The 1-for-26 4-Mr. Machupicchu has shown an affinity for finishing underneath, as shown by his 26-1-7-6 mark, and is expected to clear this field early for Bonde. However, the 4-year-old gelding is difficult to back on the win-end with much confidence. 7-Bad Uncle Ernie is wheeled back on short rest after disposing of a maiden field here last week and is certainly in top form for trainer Ed Freeman. The gelded son of I’ll Have Another looks reasonably placed.
Race #9: Selections: 5-3-1
5-Potica was no match for the runaway winner in last but managed to finish second in front of several of these on Sept. 4 at this level over at Del Mar. The Ryan Hanson barn has sent out all live runners this mini-meet. 3-Club Mayo was well-backed on debut Aug. 9 at Del Mar, finishing a wide fourth, and is eligible to move forward today. The daughter of G1 winner Halladay adds blinkers for start number two, but the Bonde barn must overcome a subpar 3-for-68 (4%) stat with second-time starters the past five years. The Steve Knapp-trained 1-Zayda At the Spa drops from $50k maiden claimers down to today’s $20,000 level while making the all-important third career try. Improvement likely.
