Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 4-Tight Dally (Race 5)
Race #1: Selections: 4-2-1
4-Ryan’s Girl took a step backward in her most recent subpar fifth-place effort over this course last week when flashing early speed and tiring, but won three straight prior by open lengths, and is eligible to rebound this afternoon on the turnback in distance. The 4-year-old filly is reunited with winning pilot Kazushi Kimura. 2-Pocket Venus kicked away to a decisive 3 ¼-length victory for trainer Mark Glatt when last seen back on May 10 going six panels, and has worked well in the interim, including a recent four furlongs in :47.2 on June 28. 1-Little Tinker Ellie steps up in class off a solid runner-up effort at 28-1 over at Santa Anita back on May 22. Most of this filly’s success has come during the Los Al evening program, but she has good early zip from the fence and figures to be prominently placed throughout.
Race #2: Selections: 5-7-3
The D’Amato-trained 5-Wishes to Riches was prominent early on before fading to fifth off the 15-month layoff on May 22 in what was a decent comeback effort. The 5-year-old daughter of Grazen steps up slightly in class, second off the bench, and looks primed for a much-improved effort. Blinkers on 7-Free and Humble goes turf to dirt on the class drop for the red-hot Miller barn, and despite only having one run over this course on debut (way back in July 2022), this mare looks like a cozy fit at this level. 3-Catalina Cocktail was trounced in the Grade 3 Santa Maria when eased and walked off the course when clearly well overmatched, but returns to a more plausible level today for Sadler and can improve in this much softer spot.
Race #3: Selections: 4-1-3
4-Midnight Mammoth is back off a three-month freshening as the class of this field, having registered a Grade 3 win on the resume and exiting a pair of subpar finishes against graded stakes-level competition. The 7-year-old gelding is 1-for-1 over the afternoon layout and has posted the fastest speed figures in the field. His works over the Santa Anita synthetic track indicate he’s ready to fire off the bench with regular rider Ayuso aboard. His stablemate, 1-Mr. Disrespectful rebounded nicely for the 2 ½-length score when returning to this course on June 19 and should find today’s seven-furlong trip to his liking. The 6-time winning gelding will need to work out a trip from the rail, however. A recent third in the Triple Bend (G3), class-dropping 3-Bartholdy is also undefeated (1-for-1) over the daytime course for Knapp and has trained sharply in recent weeks, including a bullet five furlongs in :58.1 on June 24.
Race #4: Selections: 2-9-10
2-Do It For Dave defeated several of these at this same level on June 19, when runner-up on the sizable class plunge, and deserves a long look back against familiar faces. 9-Essential Nation was beaten by double digits on May 29, but drops from a $25k claimer to today’s $6,250 level for Miller, making his third start of the form cycle. The gelded son of Grazen is likely to improve substantially in this softer spot. 10-Eielson removes the blinkers today but has good early zip from today’s outside draw to get a favorable spot going into the first turn and exits a series of solid efforts under the lights, where he’s finished second in four consecutive races.
Race #5: Selections: 4-5-8
4-Tight Dally was hardly disgraced when running fifth against considerably better opening week for conditioner Peter Eurton when trying dirt, and now adds blinkers (a positive equipment maneuver for this barn), dropping further down the class ladder. This looks like the winning spot for potential graduation time. 5-Gold Proof didn’t have the cleanest of trips when flashing speed and then was placed in a compromising spot when finishing fifth at this level, making his first try over the bigger afternoon layout. The 4-year-old gelding just missed under the lights two back. 8-Shady Gem has speed but has backed up badly in the last pair and now drops again, looking for his appropriate level. The sophomore gelding switches to one of the best frontrunning gate pilots, Edwin Maldonado, and will likely attempt to bottom out this field at five furlongs.
Race #6: Selections: 6-1-2
6-We the Hobby has hit the board in her last seven turf route tries and ran well for second off an eight-month layoff on May 31. Although this filly has finished underneath far more than she has found the winner’s circle for Miller, she’s a solid contender if able to transfer her recent top grass form back at Los Al. 1-Vicky Lyn has never tried dirt but has improved Beyer-wise on grass with each subsequent try for trainer Brendan Galvin and gets a cozy inside draw with Berrios. She should be able to work out a ground-saving journey this afternoon. The stakes-placed 2-Cecilia Street exits back-to-back seconds for Powell and ran second in the Soviet Problem S. in her lone attempt over this course.
Race #7: Selections: 1-2-12
Blinkers on 1-Dad’s Bad Bunny is making career try number seven today, having hit the board in her last three tries for her low-profile connections. She has good gate speed and the rail this afternoon, and looks like a solid gate-to-wire win candidate for the second start at the reduced $12.5k maiden claiming level. The 4-year-old filly gets a jockey switch to Payeras. Her main threat is 2-Perfect Smile, who has hit the board in four of five lifetime starts for trainer Peter Miller and makes her second start off the 10-month freshening. While no match for race winner Twisted Humor in last, she was a clear second in that 5 ½-furlong dash. A big threat with any normal second-off-the-bench progression. 12-Little Gator (by Pavel) was beaten by double digits in both turf starts, but takes a big class drop today into this bottom-level maiden claimer from Maiden Special Weights and is bred to handle dirt.
Race #8: Selections: 3-1-2
3-Elsa Dutton makes her initial try over this racetrack but arrives in good form for conditioner Aggie Ordonez, exiting a game runner-up over at Santa Anita back on May 24 over a trio of today’s returning rivals. The 4-year-old filly is reunited with winning rider Armando Ayuso. 1-Cosmo Friday was overmatched last time, but now takes a sizable class drop, second off the claim, and is eligible to improve in this softer spot on the venue change. An encouraging sign to see Kimira hop aboard. 2-Cooling Off goes turf to dirt for her initial try over the bigger Los Alamitos afternoon layout and should get adequate pace to run into, while sporting the field’s best last-pace figure.
Race #9: Selections: 11-4-9
11-Last Chance Darcy showed improved speed in her career try number two when tiring to finish fifth, and should be all set to put forth her best effort to date for trainer Aggie Ordonez, who has a good chance of stringing barn wins together here in back-to-back races. A beaten favorite in the last, 4-Jacklyn Lucas is a logical contender again off a pair of recent seconds against Maiden Special Weight foes. The 3-year-old filly is unproven over this course but sports the field’s best last-out main track Beyer (57). 9-How It Is was bumped around a bit in a subpar eighth on debut back on April 5, but is likely to show more today with the addition of Lasix and that race under her belt. Her recent a.m. drill over at San Luis Rey has been solid. This barn is, however, 0-for-48 with second-time starters the past five years.
Race #10: Selections: 8-2-12
Returnee 8-Mystic Moses makes career try number seven this afternoon but has had a trio of close-up finishes against this MDSW level, including a second when last seen back in late October of 2025. The gelded son of Stay Thirsty adds Lasix this afternoon for trainer Steve Miyadi, and it’s encouraging to see no panicky class drop. 2-Proof He’s Fast (by Grade 1 winner Idiot Proof) has trained sharply for conditioner Andy Mathis, which includes a “best of 118” four-furlong bullet in :46.3 on June 21. Lasix on for debut. The Richard Baltas-trained 12-Lit is by Straight Fire, who gets an above-average 29% with 3-year-old & up debuting prodigy. The sophomore gelding is drawn way outside, but debuts with Lasix off a solid worktab and lures Ayuso at first-asking.
Race #11: Selections: 3-7-11
Course specialist 3-See Through It is an impressive 7-for-11 during the afternoon program for trainer Librado Barocio and exits his last start with a solid 3 ¼-length score on June 21 with a field’s best last-out (86) Beyer. The 9-year-old veteran gelding stretches out an additional furlong, where he’s 5-for-9. The knock is the probable short price. 7-Smokem Z moves up in class off a nine-length runaway romp opening week, making the streaking gelding 2-for-2 to start the year. He’s hard to leave off the ticket in his current raging form despite the class hike. 11-Bob’s Blue Moon is stuck outside this afternoon, but exits back-to-back troubled trips to kick off his 2026 campaign while continuing to train forwardly in the a.m., including a “best of 43” five-furlong bullet on June 22.
