Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 7-Jonny’s Cap (Race 2)
Race #1: Selections: 2-4-3
Happy Independence Day!
2-James J. Braddock finished in front of a pair of returning rivals when just missing back on June 7 and now goes first off the claim for trainer Jesus Nunez. The 4-year-old gelding gets an additional furlong to work with this afternoon and sports the field’s best last-out Beyer (64). The 2-for-30 4-The Key Is Unity usually finds himself landing underneath rather than in the winner’s circle, but has some good positional speed in a race that’s come up light on frontrunners. Braddock’s stablemate 3-Sir Nano exits a game $6,250 N2L score on June 19 when dropped in class going this 5 ½-furlong trip and is a solid repeat win candidate.
Race #2: Selections: 7-4-2
Blinkers on 7-Jonny’s Cap drops in for a first-time tag off a speed-and-fade on June 14, facing better, and should prove difficult to reel in late with an alert break from an advantageous outside draw. 4-Smokem Wicked finished a much-improved wide fourth in his most recent try on June 20 and now drops further. 2-Simple Majority has been beaten by double digits in all three lifetime starts, but is another starter dropping in for an initial tag, and is dangerous with an expected upfront pressing journey.
Race #3: Selections: 4-2-3
The speedy 4-Charmed Dream returns off a six-month freshening for the new barn and has trained steadily for her first start of the campaign, including a blowout three panels in :33.2 on June 12. The 4-year-old filly is a multiple winner over this track and should prove tough off the bench with an alert break. The 7-year-old mare 2-Nokie is unproven over the bigger afternoon layout but makes her second start of 2026 for a career-low claiming tag and was third going 870 yards under the Los Al lights when last seen back in the end of April. She’s the likely beneficiary of a spirited early pace duel. Second off the claim, 3-Honorable Gal drops in class off back-to-back thirds, while making her third start of the form cycle. She must avoid a pace tussle with the top choice, however.
Race #4: Selections: 2-3-8
2-Duran hopped at the start, costing him roughly two lengths when off last in his most recent try on June 6, and is eligible to bounce back this afternoon with a better break. The 6-year-old gelding was a game second (with a solid 82 Beyer) two back at this level, and a repeat of that effort makes him the horse to beat this afternoon. He did run well in his lone try over this course. 3-Mongolian Max is back off a two-month mini-freshening after being claimed by the Miyadi barn off a beaten even-money fifth behind the top choice in last. The gray gelding won back-to-back efforts (by a combined seven plus lengths) at Santa Anita prior to the most recent flop. The 8-year-old 8-Jimmy Blue Jeans has spent the last several starts and two seasons routing on turf, but moves back to dirt for only his second time in 38 career starts. Nonetheless, he drops in class today as the likely pacesetter.
Race #5: Selections: 6-9-10
Trainer Peter Miller has two class-dropping bullets in this bottom-level $12,500 maiden claimer. 6-Blame It on Abby is likely the quickest of the pair out of the gate, going two sprints to a route and making her third start of the form cycle. She’s by Blame, bred to relish the additional real estate on dirt, and is a solid win threat with the substantial class plunge from $50k maiden claimers to today’s $12,500 level. Her stablemate, 9-Forza Palermo, is also stretching out while trying dirt for the first time in the all-important third career try while making a similar class plunge. 10-By the Moonlight finished a much-improved second when dropped to this level on June 5 and is a logical fit, making her third start of the form cycle. She must avoid a wide journey from the outside slot, however.
Race #6: Selections: 1-5-3
1-Uffda has speed from the rail and has proven to like both the afternoon and evening courses at Los Alamitos for trainer Jorge Farias. The 5-year-old mare should be tough to reel in late with an alert break and won both 5 ½-furlong tries at Santa Anita over the winter. 5-Falabella is in super sharp form and the likely main threat to the top choice, exiting with a win over this course on June 19 and hitting the board in her last 10 starts. The runner-up from that June 19 event, Rock n Roll Song, came back to score on June 28. She now goes first off the Charlie Treece claim and sports the field’s best last-out main-track Beyer (69). 3-Harney Lane was a mild 6-1 upset winner on June 13 for new conditioner Antonio Garcia, has competitive speed figures, and it would be little surprise if she repeats here in this spot.
Race #7: Selections: 8-6-4
8-Tequilaandtherapy exits a game win, and field’s best last-out Beyer (77) over this course back on June 21 when moving back to dirt and picking up Kimura. The 4-year-old filly is a solid repeat candidate with a similar effort. The 7-time winning 6-Theresasilverlinin has been ultra consistent with three consecutive runner-up finishes over at Santa Anita and ran well over this course in lone try last December. She shortens up in distance this afternoon, which is likely to help her chances. The 2-for-36 4-Dorie Miller rarely wins, but consistently slugs up to be part of the underneath exotics and should get a live pace to do just that again this afternoon on the cutback in distance.
Race #8: Selections: 1-5-7
The talented 7-for-9 1-Sweet Azteca has won this race twice and has proven she can fire fresh, returning off a 10-month hiatus this afternoon. Now under the care of conditioner Richie Baltas for the last two seasons, the multiple graded-stakes winner has posted triple-digit Beyers four times on her impressive resume and is simply the fastest and classiest mare again this year. If there’s one chink in the armor, it’s the tricky inside draw. Another super talented mare is the 12-for-21 5-Grand Slam Smile, who moves back to dirt off a series of solid turf tries and has proven to be just as effective over the main track. She cuts back in distance this afternoon, exiting with a win in the Fran’s Valentine S. back on May 23. The 5-year-old mare should trip out nicely from a stalking position and is probably the most likely to be a mild upsetter. 7-Nooni hasn’t been out in 574 days for Team Baffert but has trained ultra-sharp for her long-awaited return try, and this Hall of Fame conditioner has won this race seven times.
Race #9: Selections: 5-3-2
A field of 10 well-matched N1X optional $20k claiming geldings closes out the Saturday afternoon program. 5-Fight Back has found new life since moving to dirt, rattling off two straight wins, and now goes first off the Andy Mathis claim. This 5-year-old gray gelding is likely to fall into another favorable closing trip and can take his third straight if he replicates his recent form on this new oval. The Librado Barocio-trained 3-Majestic Palisades stretches back out to his preferred one-mile trip after the disappointing beaten 4-5 choice last week and is likely to bounce back on the quick turnaround. 2-The Gypsy Cowboy will likely come with his familiar late rally and pick up the pieces in a race that’s projected to be fairly quick up front, according to the DRF TimeformUS pace projection. A must-have inclusion for the vertical exotics.
