Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 2-Dragon Kat (Race 7)
Race #1: Selections: 2-5-1
There appears (at least on paper) to be plenty of speed in the Saturday 5 ½-furlong opener. The top two selections should make up ground late and benefit from a contested pace. A non-factor in last, second off the claim 2-Oveta’s Hobby goes from turf to dirt and returns to the Los Al afternoon layout, where she’s finished first or second in three tries. Improvement likely. 5-Neezer Dalton may be slowly grinding back in form after a long absence and makes the third start of the form cycle this afternoon, moving back to dirt. Red-hot Ayuso takes over the riding assignment. 1-Blessed Angel has speed and the rail, but has shown early zip and tired in three consecutive tries for trainer Vann Belvoir. The 6-for-19 mare was a sharp gate-to-wire winner in lone try over this course—albeit back in 2023.
Race #2: Selections: 6-3-1
The Peter Miller-trained 6-Vonntastic is by Grade 1 winner Bodexpress, who gets a solid 17% with his debuting juvenile prodigy. The 2-year-old filly has trained well over at San Luis Rey, draws well, and this barn sent out all live runners last week. 3-Shemakesmemad is one of two trained by Steve Miyadi, and this filly holds the experience edge over most of these with a race under her belt. She was a non-threatening sixth on debut just two weeks ago, but can move forward. 1-Princess Luna (by Cairo Prince) must negotiate the rail draw, but has worked well in the a.m. for the Dollase barn, who already has a win at the meet with Mr. Disrespectful.
Race #3: Selections: 6-4-2
6-Fix It Quick goes first off the May 25 claim for conditioner Isidro Tamayo, exiting a sharp runner-up effort. The 4-year-old gelding has proven he’s just as effective from six furlongs to a mile and sports the field’s best last-out dirt Beyer (73). The lightly raced recent maiden sprint winner, 4-Pacer, is bred to go longer for Sadler (by Nyquist) and has trained well since his most recent score. There’s still plenty of upside for a colt that brought $300k at the 2024 Keeneland September sale. The speedy 2-Zagreus was outrun in the last pair against winners but gets back to dirt on the cutback with some class relief.
Race #4: Selections: 6-5-4
A field of seven well-bred 3-year-olds that looks to offer some potential future graded-stakes-caliber talent. 6-Faran, a lofty $3.4 million purchase by Not This Time, is one of two firsters from the Baffert barn and gets jockey Umberto Rispoli for his long-awaited return to the saddle. The expensive sophomore colt has trained like he’s well-meant and is expected to quickly produce on the obvious high expectations. 5-Noble Testament (by multiple Grade 1 winner Constitution) was put away after finishing fourth (beaten by double digits) in a well-backed Del Mar debut last August, but has trained well for his return and looks ready to make some noise for his 3-year-old campaign. Hall of Famer Mike Smith is scheduled to ride for Mandella. The other Baffert firster is 4-Sudeikis, a son of McKinzie who is also training exceptionally well in the a.m. against a proven stakes winner and would be no surprise here.
Race #5: Selections: 1-5-4
1-Summer Haze has won two straight over the evening program and has never finished off the board in five lifetime tries. The 5-year-old gelded son of Vronsky returns off the mini-freshening and will look to extend his win streak, stretching out to five panels over the bigger Los Al course. 5-Cultural reared up and broke in the air last week in an effort that’s a toss and is wheeled back quickly this afternoon with a better outside post. The 4-year-old gelding was a Los Al 1,000-yard winner two back under the lights, and a similar effort gives him a chance on the bigger layout. 4-Westport Captain is 0-for-3 over the afternoon layout but returns off an eight-month layoff and finished off his 2025 campaign in fine fashion with a win and two runner-up placements. He’s trained well and proven off the bench for conditioner Vann Belvoir.
Race #6: Selections: 5-3-6-4
The Michael McCarthy-trained 5-Sugar Lovin flashed speed and tired when chasing some snappy splits before folding against better Maiden Special Weight competition on debut May 31, and now drops in for a tag in start number two. The 3-year-old daughter of McKinzie should be a handful with any normal second-out progression combined with the class relief. 3-Swimmingly finished a non-threatening eighth on debut June 6 but now moves to dirt in start number two, dropping a notch, and picks up jockey Armando Ayuso. This 3-year-old daughter of Runhappy had plenty of drills leading up to her first start for conditioner Aggie Ordonez and is likely to move forward in this spot. 6-Springline makes career try number 12 this afternoon but has had several close-up finishes against similar and should appreciate the turnback and move back to the main track. 4-Tonakitty (by multiple Grade winner Tonalist) debuts with Lasix for conditioner Peter Eurton off a solid work tab and does not need to do much to compete with this group.
Race #7: Selections: 2-7-6
The speedy 2-Dragon Kat ran very well in her most recent start, setting the pace before tiring to second on her return from a nine-month layoff, and now drops another notch while adding Lasix for her second start off the bench. 7-Stylish Colleen was beaten by double digits in her first two tries but takes a sizable class drop today, moving back to dirt for her second start off a year-long hiatus. 6-Smokem Hot Girl has been disappointing in both starts this campaign, but makes the third start of the form cycle this afternoon and ran well against this caliber at Santa Anita last spring.
Race #8: Selections: 6-4-3
The Brendan Galvin-trained 6-Just Mendelssohn gets the complete makeover this afternoon, looking for a form reversal. The 3-year-old filly goes turf to dirt, removes the blinkers, and drops in for a first-time tag after getting beaten by double digits in both Santa Anita grass sprint starts. Improvement is likely forthcoming. 4-Kambree’s Flyer finished a much-improved third in career start number two and should be all set for a career-best in the all-important third start. 3-She’s Back makes career try number 10 today but exits a troubled trip fourth in her most recent try on June 15, when stumbling at the break, and makes her third try of the current form cycle.
Race #9: Selections: 3-2-1
The stakes-winning 3-Start the Ride sports the field’s best last-out main-track Beyer (84) after his recent score on May 23 in an allowance optional claimer over a one-mile trip at Santa Anita and looks primed for the repeat, having already been successful at this trip. The Baffert-trained maiden 2-Sabino Canyon makes all-important third lifetime start today after finishing an even fourth (with a competitive 79 Beyer) when moved to the main track on May 22. This Hall of Fame conditioner looks for his 10th straight win in the Los Al Derby. 1-Southern Melodee has never gone this far, but has speed and the rail for trainer Craig Dollase and will likely be the one they’ll have to run down late.
