Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 9-One Smokin Dude (Race 5)
Race #1: Selections: 4-3-5
4-Allons Y has shown solid early foot in both career tries against far better Maiden Special Weight stock, and despite backing up and being beaten by double digits in both efforts, the Luis Mendez-trained filly figures to find this level much easier. The daughter of Upstart wheels back off a week’s rest and figures to be hard to reel in. 3-Please Behave flashed good early zip before settling for second on debut less than two weeks ago over this strip and figures to be tough right back, dropping from $50k maiden claimers down to today’s $30,000 level. 5-Estrella Esmeral is another class dropper, exiting back-to-back fifths against Maiden Special Weight company. She should be making up ground late.
Race #2: Selections: 6-2-4
6-Rexford goes first off the Peter Miller claim, exiting a sixth-place finish while sprinting on the Santa Anita turf on June 7. This barn has been red-hot this mini-meet, and this 6-year-old gelding had some solid tries at Will Rogers and Fonner Park before arriving back in Southern California. He figures on an upfront pressing trip with Kimura. The 4-for-13 2-Hey Brother has traded punches with Mega Moon in the last two starts, but is 2-for-2 at 5 ½ furlongs and is reunited with winning pilot Armando Aguilar. 4-Mega Moon had an excusable troubled trip fifth in his most recent try on June 12, when breaking slowly and forced in at the start. Any of his efforts two and three back are fast enough to win this, but he usually prefers to finish underneath, evidenced by his 23-3-9-4 lifetime mark.
Race #3: Selections: 6-5-3
Proven off the layoff, 6-Shop Till You Drop returns protected off a seven-month hiatus for trainer Richie Baltas and has run well in both tries over the Los Al afternoon layout. The 5-year-old mare should come out running off the bench. 5-Aloha Dreamin ran well off the Miller claim, finishing second, and figures to be even better this time around for a barn that’s 10-for-27 (37%) with a $3.06 ROI with second-off-the-claim dirt runners the past five years. Moving off the rail to the outside should only be beneficial. 3-Toulouse Detrac finished behind Aloha Dreamin in last as the beaten favorite, but now goes first off the claim for new conditioner Jorge Farias.
Race #4: Selections: 1-3-5
A winner in two of his last three starts, 1-Too Much Info has solid speed from the rail and sports the field’s best last-out main-track Beyer (73). The 7-time winner should prove too tough for this field at a short number. The D’Amato-trained 3-Stay for the Boom goes from turf to dirt on the turnback and takes a sizable class drop this afternoon. The Stay Thirsty 3-year-old is better sprinting and has handled dirt in the past. 5-Hurricane Way hasn’t been out in roughly 15 months but broke his maiden in his lone try over this course and has trained steadily for today’s return to action.
Race #5: Selections: 9-4-2
A multiple winner over the track and distance, 9-One Smokin Dude was a game nose winner in his most recent try at Santa Anita back in the end of May, and a good runner-up two back. The Librado Barocio-trained 4-year-old gelding should prove best late if able to run anything close to that last (78) Beyer. The speedy 4-Winhappy is a Los Alamitos evening course staple, having won three of his last five starts, and has proven he can stretch out to 5 ½ furlongs in the past. If he’s able to carve out reasonable early splits, the veteran 8-year-old gelding could prove tough to reel in late. Class-dropping 2-Hot Chicks Only gets a key rider switch to Kimura this afternoon after a wide trip fifth over the course 12 days ago and can move forward in this spot this afternoon.
Race #6: Selections: 4-6-7
4-Makenarita goes first off the claim off a closing third at Santa Anita, and despite taking 13 tries to break her Maiden, the filly has run well against winners in the last pair. Her speed figures match up well here, and Kimura knows her well. 6-Good Golly Dolly was overmatched in the last two tries, but drops back down to a more realistic level this afternoon for Team O’Neill and would be a solid win candidate if able to replicate that 9-length maiden romp three back. 7-Hot Rod Christine improved by over 30 Beyer points when stretched out on May 16 to break her maiden at 28-1 and is dangerous if she can replicate that effort on the class rise.
Race #7: Selections: 7-1-3
7-What a Gift won on the class drop last week and now makes his third start of this meet for conditioner Victor Garcia. The 3-year-old gelding moves off the rail to an outside draw this afternoon and is a logical fit right back if able to reproduce that (67) Beyer. This barn is 1-for-1 with horses wheeling back off 1-7 days. 1-Ballyhooligan has good early zip to coincide with this afternoon’s rail draw on the class drop for the Papaprodromou barn and could take this inferior group a lot further on the frontend this afternoon. He had a nice four-furlong drill over at Santa Anita on June 28. The 2-for-28 3-Cupid’s Crusader drops in for a career-low claiming tag on the stretch-out and, despite his affinity for finishing underneath, fits well Beyer-wise. He switches to the meet’s leading rider today.
Race #8: Selections: 7-8-10-4
A tricky $12,500 maiden claiming route wraps up the Friday afternoon program that looks like a spread race to close out the multi-race horizontal exotics. Turf to dirt 7-Island Paradise takes a substantial class drop this afternoon from $50k to today’s $12,500 level for trainer Leonard Powell, second off the bench, and should fall into a favorable stalking journey. He’s unproven on dirt, but this Los Al surface is usually kind to turf runners making their initial leap onto the main track. The Get Stormy gelding gets the tepid vote. 8-Stage Run finished second at this level on May 23, exiting a career-best Beyer (54). A logical fit again with another progressive move. Blinkers on 10-Big Notion goes two sprints to a route today for trainer Steve Miyadi while making his second try at this reduced level. The gelded son of Mr. Big should relish the additional real estate and will likely show more early zip this afternoon. 4-Wasting Aces exit the same grass route try as Island Paradise and Halninethousand, and either of the trio could potentially improve enough on the class drop and surface switch to win here.
