Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 3-Top of My Game (Race 8)
Race #1: 4-Final Storm is by multiple grade 1 winner Blame and debuts for conditioner Dean Pederson who sports a solid 7 for 26 (27%) and a $2.45 ROI record with sprint dirt debut runners. The juvenile gelding’s a.m. drills have been strong. 3-Mr. Chivas returns off a three-month freshening as a first-time gelding for trainer Steve Knapp and has hit the board three of six tries in dirt sprints. 7-Running Tiger (By Smiling Tiger) draws outside and has shown some early zip in his morning drills.
Selections: 4-3-7
Race #2: 2-Magnificent Ride makes career start number 13 this afternoon but drops in for a first-time tag and has managed to hit the board in half of his dirt sprint starts while running well above par for this reduced class level. The speedy 3-Atta Boy Lloyd ships down from Golden Gate making his initial dirt try and second start for a tag. The gelding had an excusable effort in his most recent try Nov. 11 when off slow, rushing up into contention three-wide and understandably tiring badly late. 1-King Zog drops back down to a level where he ran a respectable third two-back.
Selections: 2-3-1
Race #3: 3-La Paloma Blanca is an obvious fit having won two of her last three starts for trainer Peter Miller and she ran well in lone try over this course. The gray filly has speed and Rosario. 1-Modera steps up off 1,000 yard evening score Nov. 12 but has run well over the afternoon layout as well. 6-Blessed Angel steps up off sharp 3 ¾-length win against cheaper.
Selections: 3-1-6
Race #4: 1-El Rey Dorado makes his second start at this reduced $50,000 Maiden Claiming level and was a much-improved second with the class reduction Nov. 26. He looms tough to beat if able to reproduce that last-out best (73) main track Beyer. 3-Hill Sixteen was hardly disgraced in Oct. 21 debut when off slowly and finishing fifth on turf and now drops in for a tag with the move to the main track. Trainer Peter Miller is 10 for 29 (34%) with a $3.12 ROI the past 5 years with MDSW to Maiden Claiming dropdowns in start number two. 2-Big Drinker makes second start off the layoff and flashed a much-improved five-furlong “best of 69” bullet drill on Nov. 20. Improvement is likely forthcoming.
Selections: 1-3-2
Race #5: 3–Divine Feminine drops to a career-low claiming tag this afternoon for trainer Gary Stute while exiting a runner-up finish over this track back on Sept. 24. That race has since produced a pair of next-out winners. Today’s five furlongs may be a tad too short, but a live pace flow will have him running on strongly late. 1-Kislovodsk takes a significant class drop making his second start off the bench today for trainer Mike Puype. The 4-year-old gelding makes his second start off the claim today, moves inside, and figures to trip out nicely. 2–Arigento exits a win going 1,000 yards during the evening program against slightly better on Nov. 25.
Selections: 3-1-2
Race #6: 2-Smarty Nose is by Daddy Knows Best who is 8% with older debuting prodigy. The Steve Miyadi barn sports a 4 for 16 (25%) record and $6.85 ROI with debuting runners at Los Al. This 5-year-old gelding debuts with Lasix in this suspect field and is worth a shot at first asking. 6-Beyond Compareis wheeled back on less than two weeks rest of a runner-up finish over the night signal Nov. 26. The 4-year-old gelding meets a weak group this afternoon. 7-Thrust hasn’t shown much in four career starts, beaten double digits in three of four trips to the post, but drops in class today with good gate speed, turning back to a sprint on the surface change.
Selections: 2-6-7
Race #7: 8-Take Action returned off an extended layoff to break his maiden on Oct. 14 and looks well-placed for his first crack against winners. That winning Maiden race has already produced three next-out winners. 5-Eagles Action drops making the second start off the bench and was a sharp winner here two-back when breaking his Maiden. 2-Macnamara returns off more than a year freshening and, when last seen, was beaten nearly 40 lengths in the grade 1 American Pharoah at Santa Anita. The gelding returns for a new barn and modest work tab.
Selections: 8-5-2
Race #8: 3-Top of My Game drops, makes second start off the layoff and figures to get a live race flow to close into for Team O’Neill. 5-Sir Flatter is 1 for 18 and steps up off a recent $6,250 claiming win going 1,000 yards but has run well over the afternoon card in the past and is likely to get some pace to close into as well. The lightly raced 7-I’m a Lucky Man flashed speed and tired off an eight-month freshening on Nov. 5 and should be much tighter this trip around.
Selections: 3-5-7
