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Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner

BEST BET: 7-Gracie’s Gem (Race 5)

Race #1: Selections: 2-7-4

2-Rocksalot just missed by a nose in a sharp try at this level at Santa Anita back on Oct. 24, going this one-mile trip for trainer Jeff Mullins, and is the gelding to beat in the Sunday opener with a similar effort. Class dropping 7-Citizen Barrett goes two sprints to a route today for Baltas, and this son of Govenor Charlie (15% dirt routes) is bred to appreciate the additional real estate. 4-Far Over Loaded is a 16-start maiden that has accumulated seven ITM finishes the past two years. The 3-year-old gelding is one to consider underneath in the vertical exotics.

Race #2: Selections: 3-6-1

3-Anna’s Wish has improved Beyer-wise in all three starts of her 2025 season and now drops a notch in class for conditioner Dean Pederson off back-to-back ITM finishes.  The 2-for-22 6-She’s Splendid is another class dropper who ran a sharp second in her lone try over the Los Al afternoon layout three back. 1-Ready Jet Go is winless since August 2022, which is undoubtedly a long stretch of 20 consecutive losses. Nonetheless, she takes a serious class drop to a career-low $6,250 claiming tag and is eligible to spring to life against this inferior group.

Race #3: Selections: 9-3-1

A sharp winner against cheaper two-back, 9-Carol’s Comic had a legitimate excuse in her most recent try on Nov. 14 when getting shuffled back and racing wide thereafter. The 6-year-old gelding makes his third start of the form cycle today and has run well in his local starts. 3-Winds of Freedom co-tops the field’s best last-out Beyer (72) and exits back-to-back decent sprint tries at Del Mar and Santa Anita versus similar. The Stanford gelding projects to get another favorable, upfront-pressing trip for Hess. A proven winner over this track, 1-Panuco makes his second start off the Doug O’Neil claim and was fourth behind the top choice in his most recent Oct. 30 effort. This barn has solid stats with second off the claim dirt sprint runners.

Race #4: Selections: 7-5-1

The lightly raced 7-Cultural goes first off the claim for trainer Sergio Morfin after a solid third on Oct. 30, after flashing good early zip through fast splits. This jockey-trainer combo is 5 for 22 (23%) with a positive ROI the past three years with dirt sprint new acquisitions. The Volatile gelding appears to be a solid gate-to-wire threat with today’s advantageous outside draw. 5-Tee N Off was a 2 ½-length maiden winner over this strip two-back and ran a better-than-looks fourth against this $25k claiming level in his first crack against winners. 1-Ya’ll Come, rallied for the place spot, earning a career-best Beyer (73) on Nov. 8 at Del Mar, and may find this long stretch to his liking.

Race #5: Selections: 7-1-10

7-Gracie’s Gem did not break alertly in her well-backed Nov. 16 unveiling for the Papaprodromou barn but ran on well enough for fifth and is eligible to show vast improvement with the class drop and that racing experience behind her. The Stay Thirsty filly had a nice three-furlong drill since her unveiling. Not the quickest of starters, 1-Kiss Me Coco drops from $50,000 maiden claimers down to today’s $20k level for conditioner Brian Koriner and should find this inferior group more fitting. The lack of speed–breaking from the rail at 5 ½ furlongs is a concern, however. 10-Big Coin just missed by a neck in a strong closing try at this level over this course two-back. This filly’s last effort at Del Mar is forgivable after flashing early speed before checking and backing up.

Race #6: Selections: 5-1-6

The class of this field is 5-Don’t Fly Stand By, who is multiple stakes-placed at Turf Paradise and Zia Park, and was simply in too deep in his last two tries. The Upstart 3-year-old has run the quickest main track Beyers in this field and needs only to work out a trip to win this. The veteran 8-year-old gelding 1-Howbeit is a 14-time winner who has always run well here (5-3-1-0) and will be making his third try of the form cycle this afternoon. The ultra-consistent 6-Superman Shaq has been running consistently at 1,000 yards over the evening course for over the past year, but is quick enough to clear this field early on and hold on for at least a share of this.

Race #7: Selections: 8-1-7

A competitive MDSW for 3-year-old colts and geldings features a bunch of runners returning off extended breaks from top barns. 8-Broheim (by hot sire Not this Time) returns off a prolonged 17-month hiatus for trainer Michael McCarthy, but lures Hernandez off the bench, has trained well, and both of these colt’s turf runner-up finishes in 2024 were super strong. The 4-year-old is likely to come out running. The sophomore colt 1-Decapo was put on the sidelines after his March grass debut and then again after a solid turf runner-up back in August, but has been training well for an excellent layoff barn and is bred to successfully handle dirt. Baffert sends out returnee and first-time gelding 7-Yaqin, who has not been seen since his disappointing effort back in July 2024. The $525k son of Nyquist arrives on the scene with the barn’s typical flashy a.m. drills.

Race #8: Selections: 2-4-1

The speedy 2-Liberation goes two sprints to a route today for Sadler, exiting a recent troubled trip third in the seven-furlong GSJV S. at Del Mar on Halloween. The juvenile filly by Omaha Beach owns a double Beyer advantage over the rest of this field and looks tough to overhaul at likely short odds. The maiden 4-Cammy’s Girl rallied nicely to grab the show spot in an encouraging Nov. 16 debut when off slowly for Blacker, and is confidently moved up to this stakes today, on the stretch out, which are all positive signs. Turf to dirt 1-Cecilia Street has already proven she can handle this one-mile trip for trainer Leonard Powell with her recent 2 ¼-length grass maiden score on Nov. 14. She figures to sit a favorable ground-saving trip from the rail and make up good ground late.

Race #9: Selections: 9-7-8

9-Victoria’s Jewel has flashed solid early speed but tired late in all four career tries for the Papaprodromou barn, but was a much-improved third in her most recent Nov. 7 try when dropped to this $20k level and shedding the blinkers. One more chance. 7-Scotlynn Rae attracted some decent tote support in a disappointing debut on Nov. 29 but is wheeled back somewhat quickly for Knapp and dropped in for a tag. Improvement likely. 8-Keep the Pavels is also dropping in for a first-time tag for conditioner Ed Freeman. This juvenile filly adds blinkers, returns to dirt, and shortens back up to a sprint. The gray daughter of Pavel is likely to show more this afternoon, facing much weaker competition.