Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 7-Mr. Cardenas (Race 2)
Race #1: Selections: 2-4-1
2-Roman Empress defeated a trio of today’s returning rivals on June 21 when kicking clear late and posting a field’s best last-out (62) Beyer. The 6-year-old mare has good positional speed in a paceless opener and looks primed to take another for Anthony and Jennifer Saavedra. 4-Getaway Charm was squeezed at the start, losing valuable early position, and has more speed than she showed last start when finishing behind both Roman Empress and the late-closing Chollima. 1-Chollima rallied for the place spot behind the top choice in the aforementioned June 21 event, and this veteran mare has a solid overall record over this racetrack (9-1-4-1).
Race #2: Selections: 7-6-2
First-time gelding and blinkers on 7-Mr. Cardenas drops in for a claiming tag today in career try number three for trainer Jorge Periban, and this barn has strong stats with this MDSW to MDCLM class-drop angle at Los Al—going 5 for 9 (56%) with a $3.82 ROI the past four years. The Stay Thirsty juvenile is perfectly drawn outside. 6-Rookie Numbers finished an even fifth in his June 1 turf sprint debut dash at 7-1 for Miller. This son of Grade 1 winner Complexity is likely to move forward this afternoon, moving to dirt and dropping in for a tag. 2-One Step Beyond rallied for the show spot in well-bet unveiling 8 days ago and drops a notch today. Trainer Ed Freeman is only 2 for 45 with second-time starters the past five years, however.
Race #3: Selections: 5-2-1
5-Smiling Capote hasn’t shown much in both grass tries over at Santa Anita for conditioner Brian Koriner, but takes a significant class plunge today for his initial main track try and can wake up against this softer group. His sire, Smiling Tiger, gets an above-average 18% with dirt route runners. Two sprints to a route, 2-Riding By has had a series of wide journeys in his last several starts, including a sixth-place finish over this racetrack last week. 1-Dontgetfooledagain stretches back out today with speed from the fence, and both of this gelding’s better tries came routing.
Race #4: Selections: 5-7-2
The Knapp-trained 5-Timekeeper’s Charm finished a much-improved second at 18-1 over at Santa Anita on June 12 and looks tough in this spot if able to replicate her (70) main track Beyer. The filly gets the hot hand of jockey Tiago Pereira back for the return mount. 7-Calm Down Kimmie looks like the main threat to the top choice, exiting a sharp runner-up well-backed debut effort on May 26 over at Santa Anita for her low-profile connections. The daughter of Desert Code flashed good early zip in her unveiling and has continued to train well over her Los Al home base. 2-Clubhouse Cutie goes turf to dirt off the mini-freshening this afternoon and finished a decent third in a bulky field back in April in her last turf sprint.
Race #5: Selections: 4-6-10
4-Fast Service has finished second in three consecutive races for trainer Tim McCanna, and just missed in his first try over this course on June 21. The 5-year-old gelding stretches back out today. 6-Navy Jack (GB) drops again for trainer Peter Miller after flashing speed and tiring in his first dirt route try over this oval last week. The gelding may be best served trying to come off the pace today in a race that appears (at least on paper) to be top-heavy with speed-types. 10-Union Wave has good speed but is unproven over the larger Los Al layout and draws the far outside today, which can be a tricky spot to win from going one mile. Nonetheless, the 7-year-old gelding does sport the field’s best last-out Beyer (73) and likes the distance 4-4-3 from 13 tries.
Race #6: Selections: 5-7-1
Class dropping 5-Horizon Wildcat finished a better-than-looks eighth off a wide trip when sprinting on the grass on June 7 and is eligible to improve today on the surface change and class plunge. The Brendan Gallvin gelding removes the blinkers today and makes his second start off the bench. 7-Betheguymotthatguy has not been out in 10 months for trainer Peter Miller after finishing fifth in his lone try at Del Mar, where he was a voided claim when well-backed in his debut. The 3-year-old returns as a first-time gelding today with Lasix and has been training steadily at San Luis Rey for a good layoff barn. 1-Eagles Dare got plummeted in his lone try over this course in start number two when routing against better, but returns to Southern California today after one try over at Turf Paradise back in April. The colt has run some main track sprint efforts at Santa Anita that fit here, and his return drills over at San Luis Rey are decent.
Race #7: Selections: 8-1-3
8-Halo Rondo is drawn outside with good speed for conditioner Dean Pederson and exits a troubled trip, finishing as the runner-up on June 1. The 5-time winning 4-year-old gelding sports the field’s best last-out main track Beyer (78), and should be tough to overhaul with a clean break. A beaten favorite in the last pair, 1-Atomic Drop turns back to sprinting today for trainer Steve Knapp and looks to bounce back off a couple of subpar efforts. He was a 10 ½-length blowout winner with a lofty (93) Beyer three-back routing, and the barn is going well here. His stablemate, 3-Raging Waters, has been plagued by layoff lines but finished a decent fourth here (beaten less than two lengths) with late traffic trouble on June 27.
Race #8: Selections 6-2-5
The multiple Grade 1-winning seven-furlong specialist 6-Kopion looks to notch his fourth straight for trainer Richard Mandella, going 6 ½ panels this afternoon for his first try over the Los Al layout. This talented daughter of Omaha Beach has been first or second in 6 of 7 career tries and showed her road warrior versatility with an impressive win at Churchill in the Derby City Distaff (G1) over the sloppy going on Kentucky Derby Day afternoon. She owns a double Beyer advantage over the rest of this field. Last year’s winner, 2-Sweet Azteca, will likely try to get the jump on the top choice returning off an eight-month freshening for new conditioner Richard Baltas. This champion mare rattled off four straight wins in 2024 before getting beaten in the Grade 3 Chillingworth and hitting the sidelines. A beaten favorite in her last pair, 5-One Magic Philly makes her second start off the bench for the D’Amato barn, and while no match for Kopion two-back in the Labrea (G1), this filly has always been highly-regarded by her connections, and she has been training sharply in her a.m. drills.
Race #9: Selections 1-11-10
1-En Tu Honor Bro flashed speed and tired when returning off an extended layoff at Santa Anita on June 8 and now takes a substantial class drop today while making his second start off the bench. The 5-year-old gelding figures to be hustled along out of the gate today with the rail draw and should prove tough to reel in at this reduced level. 11-Drop the Bit was a much-improved second when dropped to this level last week over this racetrack in a bulky field and now adds blinkers this afternoon off that encouraging try. 10-Storm Off has not started in nearly a year for trainer Peter Miller but shows up this afternoon for a career-low $12,500 claiming tag, and this barn has won off similar long breaks over this course in the past. A positive sign that Kimura takes the call and is clicking at nearly 30% this mini-meet.
