Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 5-Big Celebration (Race 6)
Race #1: 8-Privman is a $625K Keeneland purchase by Triple Crown winner Justify, who gets an impressive 21% with his debuting juvenile prodigy. The 2-year-old colt is nicely drawn outside for Baffert off some sharp-looking morning drills. This barn unleashed a pair of winning 3-year-old firsters last weekend in Relatable and Dothraki. 5-Show of Force is by multiple grade 1 winner Omaha Beach, who gets an impressive 24% with juvenile debuting prodigy. The colt has trained well for today’s unveiling for conditioner Todd Fincher, who is more than capable of winning first out. Trainer Peter Miller sends out a pair of runners in 1-Game Warrior and 2-Curvino. This barn is a strong 7 for 25 (28%) in the past five years with debut runners at Los Al.
Selections: 8-5-1
Race #2: 6-Wrong Turn Cupid, despite lackluster performances in the last pair, is dropping down in class today. The 6-year-old mare, under the guidance of red-hot conditioner Sergio Morfin, has shown good early speed from her outside slot. She has proven her effectiveness over the 5 ½-furlong trip. 5-Tapit Doux, removing the blinkers this afternoon, is coming off a decent runner-up finish at Santa Anita. Both of his tries over the Los Al afternoon layout have been competitive. 1-Vella, though winless since July 2022, is halving his claiming tag and has shown modest success over this course.
Selections: 6-5-1
Race #3: 6-Daddy Justify shortens up, moving back to the main track on the class drop for conditioner Peter Eurton. This gelded son of Justify makes his second start off the mini-freshening and should improve considerably while facing weaker. 2-Topstitch hasn’t been out since a non-threatening debut effort at Del Mar roughly eight months ago but has trained smartly locally and could come out running off the break. 5-Audible Silence returns off a two-month layoff for trainer Val Brinkerhoff and managed to hit the board twice over at Santa Anita.
Selections: 6-2-5
Race #4: 2- Just a Little Luck was a dominant six-length winner when last seen here nine months ago and returns protected this afternoon off a steady worktab. The 4-year-old filly has proven she can fire fresh. 4-Yolo Calls, equally effective on both grass and dirt, makes her third start of the form cycle this afternoon on the class drop for trainer Peter Eurton and should prove tough at this reduced level. 3-Dulce Emma drops to a career-low claiming tag off a four-month layoff and is eligible to improve in this softer spot.
Selections: 2-4-3
Race #5: A speed and fade in his last start on May 19, the 10-time winning 2-Departure makes his first start off the Hector Palma claim, who has solid stats with new barn acquisitions overall and is 2 for 5 (40%) with a $5.20 ROI specifically at Los Al. The 6-year-old gelding adds blinkers this afternoon and is 2 for 2 over this course—both victories by a combined 13 ¼ lengths. 6-Taishan was trounced by double digits in his comeback effort on June 16, but that was facing far better. He’s run well at this level in prior efforts and, more importantly, should get a live race flow to utilize his closing kick. 5-Hapi Hapi returns to his preferred surface on the stretch-out and, like Taishan, has shown the ability to sit and pounce off a likely contested pace.
Selections: 2-6-5
Race #6: 5-Big Celebration ran on well for the place spot when returning off an eight-month hiatus for trainer Luis Mendez and figures to be much tighter in her second start back off the layoff. The 4-year-old filly broke her Maiden by a widening seven lengths over this course. 6-Ms Moab returns off a two-month freshening, exiting a strong Maiden win back on April 26. A race that’s produced a pair of next-out winners. The 5-year-old mare has worked steadily since that winning effort for Baltas. 3-Nanci Griffith steps up in class off a Maiden $20k victory back on May 31 and must be respected for her (75) winning Beyer figure. That figure is tops in this field.
Selections: 5-6-3
Race #7: 3-Drive for Show hasn’t shown a whole lot in eight career tries but drops in for a first-time tag while moving back to dirt. He projects to get a favorable stalking trip. 2-Takamakahara goes turf to dirt on the class drop and finished third twice against similar when over at Santa Anita. The gelding figures to be forwardly placed today. Blinkers off 5-Creative Om steps up off the $3,500 claim, exiting a runner-up try going 4 ½ furlongs over the evening program on June 8. This barn has solid numbers with newly acquired purchases, and the gelding’s (45) Beyer fits well against this suspect group.
Selections: 3-2-5
Race #8: 1-Tapalo has speed and the rail and exits a sharp 7-furlong seven-length gate-to-wire romp in the Lazaro Barrera Stakes on May 12. He stretches back out today, and he’ll be extremely tough if he is able to run back to that lofty (101) Beyer. Of the Baffert pair, 3-Wynstock, has been dull in all three tries this year but returns to the site of his last win in the grade 2 Los Al Futurity and is eligible to bounce back off a spirited worktab. His stablemate 2-Cornell, was no match for undefeated barnmate Parenting when returning off a layoff on June 9 but is certainly eligible to move forward off that performance. The $675K Keeneland purchase by Into Mischief was a confident Maiden winner two-back.
Selections: 1-3-2
Race #9: 10-Pancho Barnes didn’t have the cleanest of breaks in her June 13 debut for trainer Phil D’Amato when finishing fifth but is eligible to move forward this afternoon, stretching out an additional furlong. This barn is 3 for 13 (27%) with second-time sprint starters at Los Al. 9-Fly At Knight (by Sir Prancealot (Ire) debuts for conditioner Mark Glatt off some snappy a.m. drills. This barn has solid numbers with debut runners and is 2 for 5 (40%) with a $3.60 ROI at Los Al with firsters the past five years. 6-Danzingwith Maxine goes turf to dirt in the all-important third career try.
Selections: 10-9-6
