Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 3-Sunrise Journey (Race 8)
Race #1: 2-Unwritten Code goes turf to dirt making third start off the bench today for trainer Jorge Periban. This speedy filly drops in class today and has run well over the main track including a good second locally last December. She comes in with an eye-catching “best of 52” 4-furlong drill in :46.2 on December 3. 4-Emily Smiles comes off a short-priced beaten favorite 3rd place finish at Golden Gate and now makes her first start for the Wong barn. This outfit has solid numbers with all their new acquisitions and this conditioner is 5 for 17 (29%) at Los Al with new purchases. Her lone win came on dirt. 6-Drizella has been ultra-consistent at this venue and at 5 ½ furlongs (8-1-4-1). The 3-year-old filly drops from $32,500 claimers to today’s $12.5K tag this afternoon.
Race #2: 6-June Gloom is 9 for 20 lifetime and is proven going a route of ground. The 4-year-old gelding goes 2nd off the claim today for trainer Jesus Uranga. This jockey/trainer combo are 9 for 27 (33%) with a $2.11 ROI with this claiming maneuver. 7-Lookin for Revenge exits the same DMR November 24 event as three others in here when finishing a solid runner-up. 4-Of Good Report showed little at DMR and SA in last pair of efforts but was a strong winner here three-back on September 18 at this level posting a top (80) Beyer speed figure finishing in front of Lookin for Revenge. This 6-year-old gelding has a good chance today if he can somehow replicate that top effort.
Race #3: 4-Cast Member is a perfect 2 for 2 while looking for her second stakes victory this afternoon. The juvenile filly projects to sit another favorable staking journey today for Vazquez. 1-Big Celebration was a 7-length wire-to-wire runaway Maiden winner here two-back but has finished behind Cast Member on two previous occasions. 3-Cocktail Princess moves back to dirt off an impressive Maiden grass sprint score. This 2-year-old filly is by Stay Thirsty who gets 15% with his dirt route runners according to DRF Formulator.
Race #4: 8-Miss Commander shows a series of solid drills for her unveiling and trainer John Sadler is a strong 4 for 14 (29%) with a $3.16 ROI the past 2 years with Maiden claiming first time starters. Her sire Square Eddie gets a strong 19% with 2-year-old debuting prodigy. Top rider adds to the appeal. 4-Hot Thoughts is the logical one to beat in here leading all of these fillies as far as prior race experience goes while coming off a pair of respectable ITM finishes at this level– including a second over this course two-back. 3-Thirsty Date is by multiple G1 winner Stay Thirsty and debuts for trainer Peter Miller off average looking a.m. drills. Nonetheless, Maldonado sees fit to ride and barn is a strong 4 for 16 (25%) with a $2.43 ROI the past 3 years with first time starters.
Race #5: The lightly raced 3-Commander Carl improved dramatically with the addition of blinkers to break Maiden in handy fashion November 5 for trainer Dan Blacker. The 3-year-old gelding projects to be on the lead again this afternoon in a race layout that typically favors frontrunners. 7-Pioneering Papa owns the field’s best last out main track Beyer (81) and goes first off the claim today for Glatt. This barn has above average numbers with new acquisitions and this 3-year-old defeated next-out winning older gelding Sawasdee in that last start. 6-Missed Call has been freshened; gets in light today with apprentice aboard and lone main track try two-back was competitive for this level.
Race #6: The speedy 3-Dadstar owns the field’s best last out dirt Beyer (60) and has 3 runner-up finishes from last 4 starts. This looks like the right field for this gelding to finally break through the Maiden ranks and potentially wire this field at short price. 4-Curly Esa makes career start number 11 today but has run competitive figures for this level. 7-Valiente drops in class today and makes second start off the extended layoff. Improvement is likely.
Race #7: 1-Warrens Memorable has been plagued by layoff lines but has trained extremely well for her return and makes second start at this $6,250 N2X reduced claiming level. Perhaps she’s found the right spot to register her long-awaited second career victory. Beaten favorite 5-Ardtrea should be much tighter making 2nd start off the bench for winning connections. 7-Aunt Opal has won 3 straight against cheaper during the evening program and now makes first start for new barn off the claim.
Race #8: 3-Sunrise Journey returns to his preferred dirt surface this afternoon after being overmatched on grass in the California Flag Handicap October 16. This veteran 7-year-old gelding is 13 for 39 lifetime and 5 for 11 going 6 panels. The Day’s Best Bet. 1-Mister Bold has run several solid races in a row and reunites with winning rider this afternoon for trainer Jeff Bonde. He was sharp closing winner here at this level two-back. 2-Self Taught is a multiple winner over the track and distance making first start off the Knapp claim. This barn is 6 for 25 (24%) with new acquisitions.
Race #9: The lightly raced 2-Krahenbuhl comes off an impressive Maiden score at DMR November 18 where he earned par (88) for this class level and has improved Beyer-wise with each subsequent start. The son of Shackleford has yet to run a poor race in 3 career starts and looks locked in for first start against winners. 9-Bochombo was a sharp wire-to-wire winner in last earning a strong (91) Beyer for trainer Ron Ellis and earned an identical figure in lone runner-up finish over this oval back in September. The colt shows a nice 4-furlong drill December 7 in preparation for this and has the speed from outside to negotiate a favorable trip. 5-Saffa’s Day makes second start off the bench today and first start off the $50k Glatt purchase. A forward move today for new conditioner puts him in the hunt.