Play episode

2025 Kentucky Derby Contender Profiles

Luxor Cafe – 2025 Kentucky Derby Contender Profile & Analysis

by Alex Henry10 months ago

By Alex Henry

Luxor Café is Japan’s strongest entrant in the Kentucky Derby this year, having earned his official invitation to compete on the first Saturday in May via his win in the Fukuryu stakes on March 29th at Nakayama Racecourse in Japan. Technically speaking, this colt has 70 Kentucky Derby points, as the Fukuryu and Hyacinth stakes carry 40 and 30 points to the winner, respectively. However, those points are localized to the Churchill Downs-sponsored Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series to determine who receives the free berth into the starting gate. Officially, according to the current leaderboard, Luxor Café sits 19th due to his automatic qualification due to his Fukuryu stakes win and leadership in the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series.

Racing Record and Notable Performances

A versatile runner currently on a tear of 4 straight wins after breaking his maiden in his third start, Luxor Café has proven to be the best of Japan’s 3-year-old dirt crop by a country mile. After needing the summer and two near maiden misses to mature mentally and physically, this colt re-debuted November 23rd at Tokyo Racecourse over ~1 mile or 1600m from post 15 with Ryan Moore aboard. Interestingly, fellow Japan-based derby entrant Admire Daytona was also in this field directly to his outside in post 16. When the gates opened, Luxor Café was the heavy favorite at 1.3 decimal odds (roughly 1-5 fractional odds) and did not have the most impressive break, with Moore urging him to get a better position in the first furlong. He remained midpack until the far turn, improving to 7th, then Moore got to work using hands and heels to rouse Luxor Café for his best run; however, it was time for battle as Admire Daytona got first run in the stretch. These two colts quickly drew clear of the rest of the field by a margin only listed in Japanese as “large” (meaning ≥10 lengths), and in the final few strides, Luxor Café got his nose down in a heartbreaker for Admire Daytona. Notably, Luxor Café and Admire Daytona stopped the clock at 1:35.8, a new record on dirt for Japanese 2-year-olds over 1600m. According to Netkeiba, the Tokyo Racecourse dirt that day had a Track Index of -20, indicating that the track was notably fast compared to dirt races contested on other days. Luxor Café stepped up to the 3 year old 1-win class (akin to an N1X Allowance class) next out in the January 11th Kurochiku Sho over ~1 1/8mile or 1800m on dirt. Sent off at odds of 2.8 as co-favorite with Snapper Dresser, Luxor Café looked much more professional in this start, breaking well, tracking the leader throughout in 2nd, and drawing off impressively around the far turn for jockey Rachel King to win by 5 lengths. Of note, this impressive win was his first break into the 100s according to Netkeiba’s Time Index, a reasonable Beyer estimate for this win would be ~95-97. On February 23rd, on the same card as Japan’s marquis spring G1 dirt race the February stakes, Luxor Café rocketed into the 2025 Kentucky Derby conversation via his impressive performance in the listed Hyacinth Stakes, race 3 on the 4-race Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series. Sent off as the heavy favorite again at 1.8 (4/5), he had to contend with the best field he faced to date, including the highly regarded filly Promised Gene and the ever tenacious Admire Daytona. Once again, Admire Daytona and Luxor Café drew next to each other, breaking from gates 8 and 9, respectively. Luxor Café broke well and settled off the leading pack in 5th, Admire Daytona and Promised Gene both suffered late starts and had to settle with most of the field ahead of them. Around the far turn, Luxor Café seemed to have issues cornering was forced to commence his run going 6-wide, Admire Daytona and Promised Gene were forced even wider. His connections believe his cornering issues may be the result of his lack of maturity, however jockey Rachel King confidently sat chilly on her mount until about 300m (1.5 furlongs) from home when she called on him for run,vigorously. Luxor Café responded by accelerating impressively, but then proceeded to hang a bit in late stretch enough to allow the filly Promised Gene to come within a ½ length of an upset. Trainer Noriyuki Hori commented after the race that Luxor Café entered the race much stronger physically, but he still has much to learn in terms of temperament. Of note, his highest Netkeiba Time Index was earned in this race, a 107 (~97-99 Beyer speed figure) and his last 3 furlongs were run in 35.1 over a much slower track compared to his previous wins. The March 29th Fukuryu stakes over 1800m (1 1/8 miles) cemented Luxor Café’s ticket to Kentucky and visually looked the most impressive of all his wins to date. With Admire Daytona electing to run in the G2 UAE Derby at Meydan on April 5th, Luxor Café was bet down to 1.3 (~1-5), and none of his rivals had a Time Index or speed figures that eclipsed his. Hori stated before the race that [Luxor Café] when going left [counter clockwise] he is wide at the corners and when going right [clockwise] he gets awkward in changing direction, but he has made corrections [in training].” Once again, Luxor Café was tasked with running outside of his rivals, breaking from post 11 of 11 on this occasion. Joao “Magic Man” Moreira assumed the mount for the first time; the son of American Pharoah broke well and settled on the outside of his rivals, entering the first turn in the 4 path in 6th. He remained relaxed, yet fully loaded, throughout the backstretch, and as the field entered the final turn, he began accelerating on his own and coasted up to 4th. This was notable, as in previous starts, Luxor Café tended to lose ground around the corners, especially on right-handed courses. Luxor Café changed leads professionally and exploded off the far turn quickly opening up several lengths on the competition. He finished geared down with ears pricked in 1:52.1 on dirt listed “good or slightly heavy”. For this effort, he earned a 103 Netkeiba Time Index or roughly 93-95 Beyer speed figure.

Pedigree and Connections

Sire: American Pharoah
Dam & Damsire: Mary’s Follies (by More Than Ready)
Owner: Koichi Nishikawa
Trainer: Noriyuki Hori
Jockey: Joao Moreira

Luxor Café has all of the inklings of clsssic distance success. American triple crown hero American Pharoah had no trouble conquering 1 ½ miles in the Belmont stakes to cement his ascent into immortality. His progeny haveexcelled on dirt and turf at a range of distances, but tend to specialize in routes 8 furlongs and longer. Of 7 G1 winning offspring, notable route specialists include Marketsegmentation (Medglia d’Oro), Harvey’s Lil Goil (Tapit), As Time Goes By (Dehere), Above The Curve (Galileo), and most notably full brother to Luxor Café, 3-time Japanese G1 hero Café Pharoah (More Than Ready). Café Pharoah has won up to 9.5 furlongs (G3 Sirius stakes) and gave a decent account of himself in the 2025 Saudi Cup, finishing 3rd to fellow countryman Panthalassa despite the long journey. Multiple graded stakes winner Mary’s Follies has proven herself in the breeding shed as well by foaling G1 turf heroine Regal Glory (G1 Just A Game, 8fT), USA G3 and Barbados G1 winner Night Prowler (Dania Beach stakes, 7.5fT, Transylvania stakes, 8.5fT, G1 Barbados Gold Cup, 9fT, G1 Boxing Day Trophy, 9fT), and as previously mentioned 3 time Japanese G1 winner Café Pharoah (’21 and ‘22 G1 February stakes, 8f, G1 Mile Championship, 8f). Given his running style, current form over routes, and pedigree, I do not foresee any issues with 10 furlongs in the Kentucky Derby, even with a wide trip.

Jockey Joao Moreira and trainer Noriyuki Hori are global veterans and are not strangers to the big stage. According to Idol Horse, 41 year old Moreira’s riding experience in the USA dates back to 2013 where he won 2 of 17 starts, including a maiden race on turf at Churchill Downs. Wesley Ward recognized his riding talents, feeling confident enough to give him the mount on G1 winner Judy The Beauty in the G3 Winning Colors stakes (Churchill Downs, dirt) and G1 Princess Rooney handicap, both starts resulting in 2nd place finishes. Before even beginning to pack for the trip to Louisville, Moreira won the first leg of the Japanese triple crown aboard well-regarded Museum Mile early Sunday morning (USA time). Fun fact, Umberto Rispoli was once Moreira’s chief rival jockey in Hong Kong when both were riding in that jurisdiction. Rispoli will ride the likely favorite Journalism in this year’s run for the roses.

Trainer Noriyuki Hori is one of Japanese finest conditioners and has been for over 20 years. His most decorated horses include G1 winners Kinshasa no Kiseki, Tastiera, Maurice, Duramente, Satono Reve, and Café Pharoah. He has 85 Graded stakes winsunder his belt in Japan, but is still seeking his first overseas victory. His best finish outside of Japan was 3rd in the 2024 Dubai Turf with Danon Beluga and his only trip stateside was to finish 9th with SatonoCarnaval in the 2024 G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf. I have no doubt he will break through with a win stateside soon.

Final Prep Analysis

Final Prep Race: Fukuryu Stakes
Finish Position: 1st out of 11
Final Time: 1:52.1
Beyer Speed Figure: Approximately 93-95 (based on Netkeiba Time Index)

Luxor Café’s chief rival Admire Daytona opted to try his luck in the Saudi Derby rather than face this cold, leaving the field weaker than usual and without any horses winning about the N1X level. He broke sharply, was able to relax midpack, improved his cornering skills, and slingshotted off of the far turn to open up daylight to win by 5 lengths.Very impressive win despite the very deep dirt saturated by rain earlier in the day

Strengths:

Moisture and deep ground are not a problem, 3 wins came on “good” dirt, and he is used to deep sandy tracks in Japan.
Versatile running position, he has been close to the lead tracking in 2nd and he’s been agreeable enough to sit midpack and launch a big run. Variety of pace scenarios should not be a problem.
Not afraid to take kickback, can sit behind a group of horses which will be imperative in the Derby.
Both sire and dam won stakes at Churchill Downs on dirt.

Concerns:

His temperament is a concern, as stated by trainer Hori, Luxor Café has increased his maturity but on Derby day with a massive crowd in attendance, it could be rattling. However, he did race on the same day as the G1 February stakes (Hyacinth stakes day) with a massive crowd in attendance and he still produced a win but perhaps him hanging in deep stretch was a result of the crowd.
He has not faced international level competition yet unlike rival Admire Daytona, so unclear what he’s been beating as a 3-year-old.

Expert Opinions and Odds

● Currently in Kentucky Derby Las Vegas futures, Luxor Café is sitting at 13/1 (+1300) to be the second Japanese runner to hit the board. I think the presence of a potential star in Journalism may cause his odds to be close to that number. Given that Forever Young went off at 6/1 in 2024, I’d wager that Luxor Café will be close to 10/1 and possibly the 4th or 5th choice depending on how he presents himself in the mornings pre-Derby day.

Conclusion

Luxor Café gets me extremely excited. This is the first son of American Pharoah to be a serious contender in the Derby and the second horse from team Japan to look like he will make a serious impact since Forever Young last year. He’ll need a decent trip and to produce that explosive turn of foot that he’s demonstrated in his previous starts, something that Forever Young has never really had, so I have high hopes for a top 3 finish from this promising colt. Also, for reference, Luxor Café is coming into the race with similar Japanese speed figures to Forever Young’s last year, so there’s legitimate hope for a strong performance here.

Kentucky Derby Contender Profiles

Journalism – Sandman – Sovereignty – Burnham Square – Luxor Cafe – Tappan Street – Citizen Bull – Tiztastic – Coal Battle – Rodriguez – American Promise – Final Gambit – Grande – East Avenue – Publisher – Chunk of Gold – Owen Almighty – Flying Mohawk