Sandman – 2025 Kentucky Derby Contender Profile & Analysis

By Eric Solomon

After knocking on the door in some big time prep races, he finally broke through in a big way when scoring in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at the end of March. Expectations have been high from the start for this Tapit colt, as he was sold at the OBS Sale in March of 2024 for $1,200,000. He surpassed that amount in earnings with his stakes win last time and he’ll come into the Derby as one of the shorter priced options.

Racing Record and Notable Performances

With eight starts under his belt, he’s coming into the Derby as one of the more seasoned runners in the field. After showing some speed and fading as the favorite in his six furlong debut, he came back to break his maiden at Saratoga when facing an above average field in a seven furlong maiden allowance race. Mark Casse brought him to Churchill where he was not a factor in the Iroquois. He faced Sovereignty in the Street Sense where both colts were making their move at the same time. Sandman was all over the place while racing on the wrong lead, while Sovereignty was more professional. His rival drew off to win by five lengths while he finished back in third. Casse gave him a confidence building effort when he ran in a N1X allowance at Oaklawn, where he made his winter home. He was still trying to get out in the stretch, but he was still the best from that race. I think his trip and effort in the Southwest Stakes was what put him on the mainstream radar. He stumbled and hopped out of the gate, spotting the field several lengths. The front-runners began to open up down the backstretch, but Cristian Torres was patient. He came with a wide bid, but again, he was all over the track while trying to switch leads. He finished second, a length behind Speed King. While the story of the race was how he nearly overcame a disastrous break, I think many of us overlooked the fact that he absolutely should have won that race had he only been able to run straight down the stretch. It was more of the same in the Rebel as he got the hot pace up front to set up his last move, but it took him a long time to switch leads and level off. He gained a lot of ground on Coal Battle and Madaket Road, but was still third. The pace was even stronger in the Arkansas Derby where he was content to sit at the back of the field when Cornucopian and Speed King threw down the gauntlet from the break. He came with a four wide bid and blew by Coal Battle, who tried to get the jump on him like he did in the Rebel. He was all over the place once again while clear in the stretch.

Pedigree and Connections

• Sire: Tapit
• Dam & Damsire: Distorted Music (by Distorted Humor)
• Owner: DJ Stables, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds, and CJ Stables
• Trainer: Mark Casse
• Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Tapit is one of the premier distance sires for American dirt horses, so his progeny speaks for itself. He’s the top active sire in terms of earnings. He has sired horses like Essential Quality, Flightline. Untapable, Creator, Tonalist, and Frosted. While he has an impressive resume of Breeders’ Cup and Belmont Stakes winners, one notable absence on his list is having a winner in the Kentucky Derby. The dam was sired by Distorted Humor, who produced the 2003 Kentucky Derby winner, Funny Cide.The pairing should definitely produce a horse that is capable of winning at longer distances, so the 10 furlong trip of the Derby is not an issue. I’d like him even more at 12 furlongs in the Belmont, but once again, that race will be run at 10 furlongs at Saratoga this June.

Mark Casse and Jose Ortiz are both looking for their first Derby wins. Jose Ortiz has been riding extremely well at the Fair Grounds and Keeneland to start 2025. He won the Preakness in 2022 with Early Voting and he won the 2017 Belmont with Tapwrit. Casse’s best finisher in the Derby was Classic Empire, who finished 4th in 2017.

Final Prep Analysis

• Final Prep Race: G1 Arkansas Derby
• Finish Position: 1st out of 9
• Final Time: 1:50.08
• Beyer Speed Figure: 99

At the time, I thought this race was ripe for a speed duel and those conditions definitely materialized as Rafael Bejarano and Speed King refused to concede the rail and the lead to Bob Baffert’s Cornucopian, who was trying to stretch out from six to nine furlongs in just two starts. They dueled through a 45.21 half mile where they were nine lengths better than the third place runner. Jose Ortiz was content to keep Sandman at the back of the pack before unleashing a powerful four wide surge on the turn. He hit the front at the top of the stretch and began lugging in while shying from the whip, but was still able to hold on for an open length win.

Strengths and Concerns

Strengths: While there are several good looking colts headed to Louisville this year, he is going to win the beauty contest in just about every race that he runs in. He is a physically gifted colt that looks the part, and his running lines back him up as a true contender. He has performed well against high-quality runners in the past and he’s continuing to get better with every start. He is a closer, so on some level, he’s going to need to have some racing luck. On the flip side, with horses like Citizen Bull, Rodriguez, and East Avenue in the mix, the pace should honest enough for a closer to have a legitimate chance to win.

Concerns: While he’s going to need some racing luck, my one main concern with him is his inability to run straight throughout the stretch. After nine starts, he is still struggling to switch leads. He’s consistently been all over the stretch in all of his two turn starts. It’s hard for me to imagine that he’s going to flip a switch and figure everything out on Derby Day when he’s racing in the most unique circumstances in American racing.

Expert Opinions and Odds

I suspect he’s going to be the second or third choice in the wagering for this race on Derby Day. He’s one of the most blue-blooded horses in the race and he’s one that is definitely bred to excel in races at ten furlongs and beyond. He is probably the most physically gifted runner in the race, however, I’m not convinced that he has the mental makeup to win the Derby at this point. With his antics, I’d probably want closer to 12-1 on him when he goes into the starting gate, and I don’t see that happening. Right now, I’m seeing him around 8-1, and I think that number might go down a little bit.

Conclusion

My son plays defense on a U-12 travel soccer team and what I’ve noticed this spring is that several of the players he’s being tasked with guarding have hit a major growth spurt over the winter where he has not. While having a clear physical advantage over my son, he’s been able to hold his own because a lot of these boys’ skills haven’t caught up to their physical abilities yet. That is what I’m seeing with Sandman on the racetrack. He is a huge, imposing colt that has a world of physical ability. However, he has struggled to run straight once he hits his full acceleration, and that has kept him from winning some of those prep races. He got the dream setup in the Arkansas Derby, but he was still all over the track throughout the stretch. He was able to rely on physical gifts to hold off the maiden, Publisher, but he can’t get away with that in the Derby. It’s not like he is making his 4th or 5th start in the Derby, he’s making his 9th start, and at this point, I’d expect him to be more professional when he hits his top speed. If he hasn’t done that yet, it’s hard for me to envision him figuring it out on Derby Day, in front of 150,000 spectators, facing 19 rivals. I loved watching him, and have been playing him consistently in the Arkansas races, but I think he’s a bad bet in the Derby. He’s likely going to be the second choice in the wagering and while I think he might have the most raw talent in this field, I don’t think he’s mentally up to the task.

Kentucky Derby Contender Profiles

Journalism – Sandman – Sovereignty – Burnham Square – Luxor Cafe – Tappan Street – Citizen Bull – Tiztastic – Coal Battle – Rodriguez – American Promise – Final Gambit – Grande – East Avenue – Publisher – Chunk of Gold – Owen Almighty – Flying Mohawk

For quick hitting info on all 2025 Kentucky Derby horses…

In the Money Kentucky Derby Top 10 + Other Contenders