Maiden Race of the Day: Belmont Park Race 5, Saturday, Nov. 14

Nine 2-year-olds go 1 1/16 miles on the Belmont turf in Race 5 on Saturday, a $100,000 maiden special weight with a Beyer par of 72. Three are making their debuts, and the pedigrees run deep: a half-brother to Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, a Juddmonte homebred out of a mare who won first time out, and a colt whose half-brother won a Group 1 in Ireland in 2024. Only one runner, Bring Cash, has already run a par Beyer.

Belmont Park Race 5 | Sat., Nov. 14 | Post time 1:40 p.m. ET | 1 1/16 miles, turf (Tapeta if taken off the turf) | $100,000 maiden special weight, 2-year-olds

The Field at a Glance

His best race came last time, on Oct. 18 over this course at a mile. He was steadied at the 7/16 pole, kept on and finished 5th, beaten 3 1/2 lengths by Running in Time, with Bring Cash 2nd. Before that he was 4th at 47/1 at Saratoga going 1 1/16 on the inner turf, and well beaten in a dirt sprint debut. He wears blinkers.

Bolt d’Oro’s runners win 14% of their turf routes, above the 11% average for all sires. His dam, McNally, won one of 11 starts, a turf maiden at Mountaineer, and Katz in the Cradle is her first foal. Summers’s 2-year-olds are 9-for-45 (20%), with a $3.28 return for every $2 bet. He needs to find about 7 more Beyer points to reach par.

The most accomplished runner in the race. He was beaten a head by Running in Time on Oct. 18 at a mile on this turf, after going 3 to 4 wide in the upper stretch, with a 72 Beyer that matches today’s par. In September he was 2nd going a mile on the Tapeta here as the 5/2 favorite, and in August he was 4th by 3 lengths at Saratoga going today’s distance.

Sea The Moon is a European turf sire whose offspring have run only 68 times in North America; his runners here have an average winning distance of 10.2 furlongs, which says stamina. His dam won once in six starts in Ireland. Her best foal, Piz Nair, has won nine races and $192,596. Pletcher is 4-for-65 (6%) at this meet, but Franco rides him, and the pair have won 25% together this year and last, from 51 starts.

A Juddmonte homebred on both sides: Kingman stood for the farm in England, and Arrobatic is by Juddmonte’s Arrogate. Arrobatic won three of five, including her debut, a Gulfstream dirt sprint in February 2022 with a 77 Beyer, and later won allowance and optional claiming races on turf with Beyers of 82 and 84. Kingsley is her first foal.

Kingman’s North American runners win 17% of their turf routes and 21% first time out, both well above average, though his 2-year-old firsters here are a smaller group, 5-for-31 (16%). Brown’s firsters win 18%, and 22% when they debut at a mile or more (172 starts). Prat rides, and the Brown-Prat team has won 31% at Belmont this year and last. His works at Belmont have been steady but unremarkable, all from the training track or main track, none faster than :49 for a half since early October.

The sire angle in this race. Equibase’s Race Lens shows Karakontie’s 2-year-olds debuting in turf races at a mile or more have won 4 of 11 over five years, and 3 of the 4 in the last year, with a $2 bet returning $7.04 on average. That rests on four winners, so it is a lean, not a rule. Karakontie’s overall numbers point the same way: his 2-year-old firsters win 18%, against an 11% average, and his turf routers win 15%.

His dam, Ascot Girl, won her debut going 1 1/16 miles on the Gulfstream turf in March 2015, rallying from post 14 to win with a 77 Beyer, and won four of 14 overall. Her only other foal to race, Front Girl, was unplaced in both starts. Motion’s firsters win 14%, but only 3-for-34 (9%) when they debut at a mile or more. He has trained at Fair Hill, with a 5-furlong work in 1:01 2/5 on dirt on Oct. 22.

The pedigree headline of the race. He is a half-brother to Authentic, winner of the 2020 Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic, who earned $7.2 million and a 111 Beyer and won his own debut at Del Mar. Their dam, Flawless, ran only twice: she won first time out at Belmont going 7 furlongs on dirt with an 87 Beyer, then ran 2nd. Six of her 10 foals have won. But apart from Authentic, none of her other six starters won first time out.

Nonstop is from Flightline’s first crop, and that crop has started fast. His offspring have won 11 of their 62 races (17%), 6 of the 33 who debuted won first time out (18%), and they are 3-for-11 in turf routes. Those are small numbers. Race Lens shows a $2 bet on each of his first-time starters returned $1.62 on average, so they have been well bet. The trainer is the bigger question. Mott’s firsters win 5% (8 of 165), and those debuting at a mile or more are 2-for-70 (3%). He is a May foal, among the youngest in the field. His best work was a half in :48 1/5 on the training track on Nov. 8, 3rd of 101.

He was 4th, beaten 5 1/2 lengths, in his debut at 7 furlongs on this turf on Oct. 30, after swinging 6 to 7 wide into the stretch. Momentary Star was 3rd in the same race. Blinkers go on today, and he stretches out.

His dam, In a Hurry, won four of 19 and $306,916, and was 3rd in two graded turf stakes, the Gallorette and the Suwannee River. Special Warfare is her first foal. Violence is a dirt sire first: his runners win 11% of their turf routes, right at the all-sire average. McGaughey has started well at the meet, 10-for-33 (30%), and his maidens making a second start win 18%.

The longest shot in the field at 50/1. He has run seven times at four tracks, on dirt, turf and Tapeta, and has not finished closer than 9 lengths. He was gelded on Nov. 7, and this is his first start since.

His dam, Art of Almost, was much better than her son so far: she won the Ontario Matron (G3) at Woodbine and $359,429. Golden Pal, a Breeders’ Cup-winning turf sprinter, gets sprinters: his runners’ average winning distance is 6.3 furlongs.

Two decent efforts without luck. He debuted at 93/1 in a 6 1/2-furlong inner-turf sprint here on Sept. 19 and weaved through traffic to finish 5th with a 63 Beyer. Then he stretched out to a mile at Keeneland, broke slowly, swung 6 wide and was 5th again, beaten 3 3/4 lengths.

Practical Joke is the weakest turf sire in the race: his runners win 8% of their turf routes, below the 11% average. His dam, Lucky Latkes, won three of 20 and ran 2nd first time out going this distance on this turf in 2020. Air Devil is her first foal.

He hesitated and lunged at the start of his debut on Oct. 30 at 7 furlongs here, raced last early, then went 3 to 4 wide into the stretch and finished 3rd, 2 1/2 lengths behind And the Runner Is. Special Warfare was 4th. He was well backed for a first-time starter: 6/1, the third choice of nine, behind only the two who had raced before and ran 1-2. Special Warfare, the only other debut runner, was 7/1. He stretches out today.

The family is the story. His dam, Fidaaha, never won in four starts in Ireland, but her foals run well first time out: all five have finished in the top three in their debuts, and three won. Two became Group winners in Europe. Scorthy Champ won the Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (G1) at the Curragh in 2024, after winning his debut. Malavath won the Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte (G2) and Prix Imprudence (G3) in France, and ran 2nd in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. A half-sister, Anybody But You, won her debut at 1 1/16 on the Gulfstream turf.

Mehmas is a European sprint-to-mile sire, but his North American runners win 17% of their turf routes. One caution: Race Lens has his 2-year-olds in U.S. turf races at a mile or more at just 2-for-16, with a $2 bet returning 84 cents. That is a small sample, but it is the closest match to this spot. McPeek’s maidens making a second start win 19%, and his sprint-to-route runners 20%.

The Prior Races

Two Belmont turf maidens shape this field. On Oct. 18, at a mile, Running in Time beat Bring Cash by a head, with Katz in the Cradle 5th. On Oct. 30, at 7 furlongs, And the Runner Is won, with Momentary Star 3rd and Special Warfare 4th. Neither race has produced a next-out winner yet: Captain G was 3rd and Hold’em 4th when they came back on Nov. 1.

More Maiden Race of the Day: Friday’s Churchill Race 8 · Thursday’s Belmont Race 4 · every Maiden Race of the Day. Today’s picks from the whole ITM team are on the Today’s Racing page, and the rest of our Belmont handicapping is in our Belmont Park coverage.