Maiden Race of the Day: Churchill Downs Race 8, Friday, Nov. 13

Ten 2-year-old fillies go 6 furlongs on the Churchill Downs dirt in Race 8 on Friday, a $120,000 maiden special weight with a Beyer par of 69. Six are making their debuts, including a $450,000 Saratoga yearling by Tiz the Law and a full sister to a stakes-placed $900,000 colt. The 3/1 morning-line favorite is a firster for a trainer whose firsters have won just 5 of 140 starts over five years.

Churchill Downs Race 8 | Fri., Nov. 13 | Post time 4:25 p.m. ET | 6 furlongs, dirt | $120,000 maiden special weight, 2-year-old fillies

The Field at a Glance

Her dam, Bella Bailar, won two of 15 starts and $77,972, including a Keeneland claiming sprint with a 91 Beyer. She won her own debut, a maiden special weight sprint on a sloppy track at Indiana Grand. Her first two foals to race both ran 2nd or 3rd first time out, but are still maidens. Sharp Azteca’s 2-year-old firsters win 8%, below the 11% average for all sires.

Navarrete has started only 40 firsters in five years. Four won, all at long odds, but her maiden special weight firsters in dirt sprints are 0-for-11. Most of this filly’s works have come at Skylight Training Center.

The most expensive filly in the race. Her full brother, Luz de Guia, sold for $290,000 as a yearling and has won once with six thirds and a 78 Beyer. Tiz the Law is a strong sprint sire for his price: his runners win 19% of their dirt sprints against a 13% average, and his 2-year-old firsters win 14%.

Eurton is based in California. His dirt-sprint firsters are 9-for-73 (12%), and 5-for-30 (17%) at 3/1 to 9/1. She was scratched from a Keeneland maiden on Oct. 8. Her last three works have been among the slowest of the morning, including a half in :51 that ranked 148th of 166 on Nov. 7.

She made her debut for Rodolphe Brisset in a 5-furlong turf sprint at Indiana Grand on Aug. 31, raced three wide and had no late bid, finishing 7th of 9. Since then she has moved to Beckman, and she has put in steady works at Keeneland and Churchill, including a half in :47 2/5 on Oct. 31, 6th of 161.

Three changes come at once: first start for Beckman, first start on dirt and blinkers off. Over five years, Beckman’s maidens switching from turf to dirt are 7-for-20 (35%), with a $5.33 return for every $2 bet. Nyquist’s 2-year-olds win 18%, among the best in this field. Her dam won two of nine starts, and her half-sister Manage Xpectations has won twice. None of her dam’s four foals to race, Rose Quest included, has won first time out.

Her dam, Melody Maiden, has had 14 foals race and 10 have won (one in Japan), earning more than $1 million between them. The best include Bumperdoo (Birdstone), who won 10 races and $314,728, and Medolina (Aragorn), who won three of seven with an 88 Beyer. Only two of the 14 won first time out: Medolina, and Loud and Clear (Giant’s Causeway), a $150,000 Keeneland yearling who won his only start, in Japan for Godolphin. The other eight winners all lost their debuts, Bumperdoo by finishing 7th and Time Muse 11th. In this family, a 3rd first time out is a good start. Maclean’s Music is a sprint sire: his runners win 17% of their dirt sprints.

She debuted going a mile here on Oct. 25 and was part of a three-way duel into the stretch. The chart says she “yielded when floated into tight rail quarters” near the furlong pole, then held on for 3rd. None of that field has run back yet. McPeek’s second-time starters in dirt sprints at 3/1 to 9/1 are 8-for-38 (21%), with a $2.78 return.

The best family in the race at a price. She is a full sister to Smokin’ Jay (Cairo Prince), who won the Allied Forces Stakes on the Belmont turf and $326,735 with a 95 Beyer. Her half-sister Nice as Pie (Tapiture) won the Serena’s Song Stakes at Turfway, was 3rd in the Grade 3 Hendrie at Woodbine and has earned $466,633. Her dam is a maiden, but four of her five foals to race have won, and two won first time out: Smokin’ Jay, wire to wire in a 5-furlong maiden at Arlington, and Gorman, at Delaware.

She was 5th of 10 in a turf sprint at Indiana Grand on Oct. 12, stalking three wide with no late bid. That family wins mostly on turf, and this is her first dirt start. Danner’s maidens switching from turf to dirt are 5-for-33 (15%). She was scratched twice from turf maidens at Kentucky Downs in September.

Albaugh bred her and kept her when she did not reach her reserve. Her half-brother Balboa (Not This Time) sold for $875,000 as a yearling, won the J.F. Lewis III Stakes, was 2nd in the Jerome and ran in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity and American Pharoah. Her dam won two of seven, starting with her debut at Prairie Meadows. Balboa was 3rd first time out.

The trainer’s record raises questions. Over five years, Romans’s firsters are 5-for-140 (4%), and 5-for-110 in dirt sprints. In dirt sprints, bet below 3/1, they are 1-for-8. We also checked his firsters’ workout tabs, and nothing separates the winners: those with a bullet work are 2-for-41. She has a bullet 5 furlongs in 1:00 1/5 on Oct. 21, but her last work was a slow half, 138th of 166. His second-time starters are much better: 18-for-116 (16%).

Her dam, Whoa Nellie, won six races and $353,830, including the Pippin Stakes at Oaklawn, and was 2nd in the Grade 3 Bayakoa and 3rd in the Grade 3 Chilukki. Two of her three foals to race have won, including Into the Beast (Into Mischief), a $475,000 OBS 2-year-old. Whoa Nellie won her own debut going 6 furlongs here at Churchill, and her daughter St. Gilgen won first time out in a Turfway maiden claimer.

She was 3rd at Keeneland on April 8, swinging six wide and staying on. The winner, Waggley, won the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes at Churchill three weeks later. Frontline Fury was entered in that race but was scratched by the state veterinarian as unsound. She returns seven months later with blinkers on and a bullet half in :46 4/5 at Keeneland on Nov. 5. Colebrook’s maidens returning from 180 days or more are 1-for-13, and DRF shows his first-time blinkers runners at 0-for-17.

A $111,000 pinhook in nine months. She is the first foal of a mare who made one start. Volatile’s 2-year-old firsters win 15%, and his runners win 17% of their dirt sprints.

Casse’s dirt-sprint firsters are 13-for-85 (15%), but 1-for-29 at 10/1 or higher, and she is 20/1 on the morning line. She was scratched from two Keeneland maidens in October. Her best recent work is a 5-furlong move in 1:00 4/5, 2nd of 11, in September.

Pedigree is not the problem. Her dam, Inspired, won eight races and $439,785 and four turf sprint stakes, including the $200,000 Turf Amazon at Parx. All seven of her foals to race have won, but only one, Night Time Lady, won first time out. Together they have earned $1.1 million. The best is Innovator (Authentic), this filly’s full brother, who sold for $900,000, was 2nd in the Advent Stakes at Oaklawn and 3rd in the Grade 3 Lecomte.

The trainer’s record raises questions. Over five years, Ennis’s firsters are 8-for-214 (4%), and his dirt-sprint firsters are 3-for-130. At 10/1 or higher, they are 0-for-89. His second-time starters in dirt sprints are much better, 13-for-77 (17%). She has trained at Trackside, with a bullet 5 furlongs in 1:01 on Oct. 29.

Omaha Beach’s runners win 20% of their dirt sprints, the best of any sire in this race. The female family is modest: her dam won four of 18 and her one winning sibling has a best Beyer of 52. But the dam, Jazz Lady, won first time out, going 5 1/2 furlongs here at Churchill.

O’Neill’s dirt-sprint firsters are 30-for-204 (15%), and the board tells you which ones: 20-for-42 (48%) when bet below 3/1, and 10-for-162 at any other price. She has two bullets at Keeneland, 3 furlongs in :34 4/5 and 5 furlongs in :59 2/5. That looks good, but oddly, since 2023, O’Neill’s dirt-sprint firsters with two or more bullet works are 0-for-15, three of them beaten at odds below 3/1. His firsters with one bullet and bet below 3/1 are 8-for-12. She also has an apprentice rider taking 7 pounds off.

The Prior Races

None of the four runners with experience has met the others. Rose Quest and Margaret Lane both debuted in turf sprints at Indiana Grand, and each of those races has produced one next-out winner, both in maiden claimers. Seaton Springs’s Oct. 25 race has not had a runner back yet.

The strongest prior race belongs to Frontline Fury. Waggley, who won it easily, won the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes next time out.

More Maiden Race of the Day: Thursday’s Belmont Race 4 · Wednesday’s Churchill Race 5 · every Maiden Race of the Day. Today’s picks from the whole ITM team are on the Today’s Racing page, and the rest of our Churchill handicapping is in our Churchill Downs coverage.