Maiden Race of the Day: Churchill Downs Race 10, Sunday, Nov. 15

Twelve 2-year-old fillies go 6 1/2 furlongs on the Churchill Downs dirt in Race 10 on Sunday, a $92,000 maiden special weight with a twist: it is only for fillies who sold, or failed to meet their reserve, for $65,000 or less at their most recent auction. Four more are also-eligibles. Only three points separate the top three Beyers, two fillies return from long breaks, and four make their debuts, including a Brad Cox firster for a trainer who has won 12 of 29 races at the meet.

Churchill Downs Race 10 | Sun., Nov. 15 | Post time 5:24 p.m. ET | 6 1/2 furlongs, dirt | $92,000 maiden special weight, 2-year-old fillies

The Field at a Glance

She lost half her yearling price at the 2-year-old sale. Mandaloun, promoted to winner of the 2021 Kentucky Derby, has his first crop racing, and his firsters have won 3 of 39 (7%), below the 11% average for 2-year-old debut runners. Equibase’s Race Lens narrows it to this spot: his 2-year-olds debuting on dirt at 6 to 7 furlongs are 0-for-12, and only two hit the board. That is a small sample, but it points the same way. Sharp’s firsters win 11%. Her dam, Black Diamond Girl, won four of 20 and was 3rd in her own debut. Her best foal, Adiva, won four races and $170,415. She worked 5 furlongs in 1:00 3/5 on the Turfway Park synthetic on Oct. 20, 3rd of 16.

The trainer is the headline. Cox has won 12 of his 29 races at this meet (41%), his firsters win 17% from 363 starts, and his 2-year-olds 24%. Gaffalione rides, and the pair have won 19% together this year and last. Her best work was a half-mile in :48 4/5 at Ellis Park on Oct. 20, fastest of 13.

The pedigree is the question. Speaker’s Corner, a son of Street Sense, has his first crop racing, and his offspring have won only 7 of 102 races (6%), with 3 winners from 43 debut runners. Race Lens has his 2-year-olds debuting on dirt at 6 to 7 furlongs at 1-for-14, with a $2 bet returning 40 cents. That is a small sample, and Cox’s firsters are a different story, but it is the closest match to this race. Her dam, Vanilla Cat, won once in 18 starts but earned $134,440 and ran a 79 Beyer. Her only other runner, Cat Island, was 2nd at 11/1 in her debut at Keeneland.

A $7,000 purchase who has already earned $29,384. Her best race came on Sept. 20 at a mile here, when she was sent clear and was 2nd to Oh She Said Yes, who then ran 3rd in the Grade 1 Alcibiades. Sweet Venture was 3rd. Last time she was the 7/4 favorite going 7 furlongs at Keeneland, bid on the turn, then got outkicked and was 4th. She debuted with a 3rd on the Colonial Downs turf.

Volatile is a fast sire: his 2-year-old firsters win 15%, and his offspring win 17% of their dirt sprints. Her dam, Craft Woods, ran 2nd in her debut in a $132,000 maiden on the Kentucky Downs turf with a 73 Beyer, then won. Her half-sister Crafty Collector won five races and $161,975.

She debuted on Oct. 5 at Horseshoe Indianapolis going 5 1/2 furlongs, was steadied on the turn, then rallied for 3rd at 17/1. She stretches out a furlong. Liam’s Map, who stands for $80,000, gets 2-year-olds who win 13% of their races. Her dam, She’s No Drama, won four of 33 and $103,070, with an 81 Beyer, and this is her first foal.

Maker is 0-for-19 at the meet, and his maidens making a second start win 9%. The 7-pound apprentice helps: Ortiz has won 11 of 38 races at the meet (29%).

The most consistent filly in the field, and the one with the best form lines. She was 2nd twice at Ellis Park this summer, the second time to Elewene, who won a Churchill allowance next out. On Sept. 20 here she was 3rd behind Oh She Said Yes and Fumed. Last out at Keeneland on Oct. 16 she shied leaving the chute, raced green, went clear in the stretch, then drifted and was caught late by Revereign, a 20/1 shot who had been 5th in that Sept. 20 race. She earned a career-best 59 Beyer, the top figure in the field. The blinkers she adds today are aimed at that greenness.

Kenneally is 3-for-9 at the meet, and he and Saez have won 22% together at Churchill. Her dam, Miss Catomine, has produced four winners from six runners, led by South Street, who won four races and $175,205 with an 87 Beyer. Daredevil now stands in Turkey; his 2-year-olds win 9%.

The cheapest purchase in the field ran 2nd at 27/1 in her only start, a $50,000 maiden claimer here on June 21. She has been off since, has changed barns to Calhoun, who is 3-for-6 at the meet, and adds blinkers. Her dam, Indian Beauty, won her debut at Penn National with a 52 Beyer and won twice from four starts. Three of her four foals ran 2nd first time out, so the family runs early. She needs to find about 20 Beyer points to compete with the top three.

She chased early and faded to 8th at 22/1 in her debut at Keeneland on Oct. 9. Drain the Clock’s first crop are pure sprinters: their winners average 5.2 furlongs, so 6 1/2 may be a stretch. Her dam, Sliver of Hope, won three of 12 and $124,430, and three of her four foals have won. Kurtz has won 2 of 25 races this year.

Danner’s firsters win 12%, but they pay: a $2 bet on each has returned $4.37. She is 0-for-15 at the meet. Her dam, Jelly Cable, won her own debut at Turfway going 1 1/16 miles with a 65 Beyer, and four of her seven foals have won, but her four North American firsters are winless. Beau Liam’s runners win 16% of their dirt sprints.

She went off the 2/5 favorite in her debut at Aqueduct in May and was 3rd after a slow start; Liam’s Law, 4th that day, has since won twice at Saratoga. Then came a 6th on the Saratoga turf and, on July 26 at Ellis Park, her best race: she led at a mile, was caught at the furlong pole and finished 4th with a 58 Beyer, a point off the top figure here. Today she cuts back to a sprint after 16 weeks off.

Ward’s runners off a two-to-six-month layoff win 26%, his 2-year-olds 29% and his dirt runners 35%, and he and Rodriguez have won 27% together. Her works point to a fit filly: a bullet half-mile in :46 at Keeneland on Oct. 25, fastest of 29, then 5 furlongs in 1:00 3/5 and 1:00 4/5.

The family fits too. Her dam, Tiz News, never raced, but her three best foals are all by Maclean’s Music, the sire of Jackie’s Warrior. Tiz Splendid News won four races and $281,876, with an 88 Beyer. Made Me Shiver won her debut here at 4 1/2 furlongs with an 83 Beyer. Starship Juliette also won first time out. Jackie’s Warrior’s first-crop 2-year-olds win 17% of their races, though only 8% first time out, so they improve with racing.

The pedigree bargain of the race: a Good Magic filly out of a mare who won six of 11 and $716,500, with a Beyer of 100, sold for $22,000 as a yearling. Kauai Katie won her own debut at Saratoga as the favorite. Her foals have been slow starters, 0-for-7 first time out, but two became useful: Kauai Dan won 13 races and Ministerial won five and $157,419.

Puunene was 4th at 17/1 in her debut here on Sept. 17, after a 5-wide move, with a 47 Beyer. Last out she set the pace at Keeneland and faded to 7th. She is also entered on Wednesday at Churchill, so she may not run here.

The sire is the reason to look. Girvin’s 2-year-old firsters have won 33 of 168 (19%), the best debut rate of any sire in the field and well above the 11% average. Equibase’s Race Lens narrows it to this spot: over five years, his 2-year-olds debuting on dirt at 6 to 7 furlongs have won 13 of 64 (20%), and a $2 bet on each returned $2.64. His offspring also win 19% of their dirt sprints. The rest is thin: her dam, Fair and Just, was 0-for-2, and Barrett has won 3 of 43 races this year, 0-for-5 with firsters.

Her debut was a non-event: 9th at 6/1 at Keeneland on Oct. 9, never a factor from an inside trip. That race has since produced two next-out winners, Spur of the Moment and Storm Diva. Lynch is 4-for-14 at the meet, and his maidens making a second start win 27%, with a $2 bet returning $4.33. Blinkers go on.

Her dam, Silver At Midnight, never raced, but her foals win 27% of their races. Silver Moon Road won 12 races and $224,051, with an 89 Beyer, and Midnight Show won first time out and four of five starts. Add Girvin’s 19% with 2-year-olds, and she is a big-price candidate to improve.

The Also-Eligibles

Four fillies get in only if there are scratches, and three of them, Wish You Were Here, I Want Her and J Z’s Not Again, are also entered on Wednesday. J Z’s Not Again (12/1) has the most racing, with a 52 Beyer in a 2nd-place finish in a Keeneland $30,000 maiden claimer; J. Kent Sweezey claimed her for $50,000 on Nov. 4. Benevolencia (20/1), by Street Sense, faded to 7th in her debut here on Oct. 25. Wish You Were Here (10/1), by Cupid for Riley Mott, is the first foal of a mare who won her debut at Charles Town. I Want Her (15/1), by Practical Joke, sold for $115,000 as a weanling, then failed to meet her reserve at $140,000 as a yearling and at $15,000 as a 2-year-old.

The Prior Races

Two races shape this field. The Sept. 20 maiden at a mile here is a key race: winner Oh She Said Yes ran 3rd in the Grade 1 Alcibiades next out, and two others from it won their next starts, Revereign and Today Isa Gift. Fumed was 2nd and Sweet Venture 3rd. Revereign then beat Sweet Venture and Fumed at Keeneland on Oct. 16; nobody from that race has won since. The Oct. 9 Keeneland maiden, where Selah Breeze and Bourbon Ice were well beaten, has also produced two next-out winners. Sweet Venture’s July 10 race at Ellis Park produced two more.

More Maiden Race of the Day: Saturday’s Belmont Race 5 · Friday’s Churchill Race 8 · every Maiden Race of the Day. Today’s picks from the whole ITM team are on the Today’s Racing page, and the rest of our Churchill handicapping is in our Churchill Downs coverage.