Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – 5/24/25 – By Eric Solomon

Summer at the Jersey Shore officially begins with Memorial Day Weekend. It might not feel like summer just yet, but the weather should be sunny and dry for the three day weekend. Half of the ten races today are carded for the turf, including the featured race, the $100K Cliff Hanger Stakes. First post this afternoon is 12:50 PM (EDT). 

Next Saturday, Monmouth Park hosts one of the best handicapping tournaments in the country with the $2,000 Pick Your Prize Handicapping Challenge. 18 NHC Seats, 4 BCBC Seats, and $65K in cash are all up for grabs. If you’re not able to be on site, you are able to play online. You must pre-register for this contest, and all of the information to do so is linked here. 

https://www.monmouthpark.com/event/2000-pick-your-prize-handicapping-challenge-3/

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 5th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

The full card analysis below, but in this section, I’m going to spotlight a few horses that I’m looking at building multi-race tickets around. 

Race 1:

The Memorial Day Weekend races begin with a $40K-$30K beaten claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the turf course. All of the runners in this race qualified under the N2L condition. The rails will be set at 24 feet once again this afternoon. Turf Rocket (#8) makes a lot of sense here for Michael Trombetta. She had a long string of races last year before getting the winter off. She caught a good course when making her first start since November last month. From start to finish, she had a pretty miserable time of things in that race at Laurel. She was crowded hard at the break and then covered up with nowhere to run for the next ¾ of a mile. She was finally able to tip out, but had to steady again. She still was trying at the end in a race where I couldn’t really blame her if she completely threw in the towel. She drops in for a tag for the first time since Trombetta claimed her in January of 2024. This feels like a significant drop in class which should be welcomed after some near misses. Antonio Gallardo is scheduled to ride her for the first time this season. The logical backup in this spot is Southampton Dock (#7). Paco Lopez takes the mount as she gets back on the turf for the second time this year. She was competitive on the turf at Parx and Aqueduct in three starts last year. Once turf racing ended, she went to the dirt where she was not good in four tries. She wasn’t bad at Laurel when dropping to this level. Paco Lopez rode her well back in August and I’ll think he’ll be able to get more out of her here. 

Race 2:

This is a bit of an odd $7,500-$6,500 N3L claiming race going 1 mile and 70 yards over the main track. Four of the seven runners in this race are winless over a fast main dirt track. From a pace and class standpoint, this race is Thearcherortheprey’s (#2) to lose. She doesn’t have a world of early speed, but she’s been tactical enough to get close to the front end. Her last victory came last April at Parx when she pretty much led every step of the way. Her inside draw should carry her to the lead in a race where her six rivals haven’t really shown interest in setting the pace. Maybe Armonia (#4) could challenge her, but her dirt efforts have been poor. I’m not really interested in taking a short price on anyone in this race, but I do think this mare is the most likely winner. Looking For Water (#1) makes her first start since February while running for new connections. She’s one of two horses with a victory over this course. I worry that there’s not going to be enough pace to set up her late closing kick, however, I think Marin will be able to keep her closer than usual. She didn’t have a ton of pace to chase last August when clearing the N2L condition here, when going from last to first. Special Affair (#3) has done her best work on other surfaces, but she has shown that she can be competitive on the dirt. She finished 4th after a fairly significant stumble at the break. Her nose touched the ground a few steps in and she fell to the back of the pack early on. I’d be more confident in her chances if she finished closer to the winner in some of her other dirt tries. This is not the strongest group though. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will sprint 5 ½ furlongs on the turf in this $40K-$30K maiden claiming contest. We’re back to a ten race card, so the brand new Mid-Card Pick-5 begins here. This is one of those races where there’s decent speed coming from both the inside and outside post positions, which should ensure an honest pace. As a result, I think My Grey Humor (#4) could get the run of the race while making her third career start and her first since November. I thought she ran a credible second in November when facing maiden special weight foes at this distance at Laurel. Cathal Lynch is usually dangerous with the runners that he brings to Monmouth, and this feels like a good spot for this City of Light filly. Aunt Nona (#1) figures to be one of the ones that want the front. She was on the pace in her first three turf starts, all of which came in New York. She ran well on debut, but she struggled against tougher fillies in her next two turf tries. She dropped to this level on the dirt where she was not interested. John Kimmel gave her the rest of the winter off and now he has her set to return, giving the mount to Joe Bravo. I think we’ll see a better effort from her. On deeper tickets, I’ll cover with Bruce Levine’s Midnightloveaffair (#5). She broke last when debuting at Aqueduct in a turf sprint last fall. Like My Grey Humor and Aunt Nona, she wasn’t interested in the dirt when making her most recent start. Lasix will be added for her three year old debut today.

Race 4:

Three year olds and up will sprint six furlongs in this $5K claiming race for horses that have not won a race in six months. Monmouth is also offering a Mid-Card Pick-4 this year, and that new wager starts here. Is there a horse that is going to be able to beat the morning line favorite, Feast (#7), who is making his first start at Monmouth since 2023. He was remarkable here in 2022, winning four of five times, including a victory in the Rumson Stakes. He’s clearly not the same horse that he was then, but he does fit very well at this level, especially making his first start off the claim for a sharp claiming barn. Paco Lopez takes the mount on this horse that just became eligible for this condition four days ago. My hope is that local bettors will remember the big efforts that Diamond Heist (#3) had here last year, thus keeping the price more reason on the top pick. Diamond Heist seems like the logical backup in this spot. He was excellent here in 2024, but his form quickly dropped off the map in Kentucky. He’s been sidelined since and now bottoms out for his first start in over six months. His barn has been off to a slow start at this meet and they’re horses off longer layoffs have struggled first off the bench. Should Feast scratch, he’s going to take a ton of money, but I think he’d still be vulnerable. Instead, I’ll backup with Granted Success (#1). He changes barns and drops to time restricted $5K claiming after failing to break through at the N3L claiming level. The change in scenery could serve him well while making his second start off a layoff. 

Race 5:

We go back to the turf for a $16K-$14K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles out of the chute. I’ll try the second time starter, Bird Dance (#8) on top in this race. She debuted in a race at this level at Tampa three weeks ago. She was roughed up at the start and was ridden into making a middle move before leveling off. She got that race under her belt and now ships north where she’ll get blinkers for the first time. The dam produced a stakes winner on the turf and another horse who cleared the first level allowance condition on this course last season. I like what I’ve seen from Sonny Leon in the first few weeks of him riding regularly here. He rode a pair of winners for Dini so far and I do think he’ll upgrade this filly’s chances. Leon ast rode Pretty Thing (#4) at Tampa, but Delgado opts to use Chantal Sutherland today for this Calyx filly. She figures to be the pacesetter today after pressing the pace in her two turf tries where she drew wider post positions. She battled hard and hung in there in both of the turf races, only to lose by small margins. This barn continues to send out live runners at this meet. Nouveau (#3) is another to consider using in this spot. She is dropping in class after finishing midpack in a pair of $32K claiming races at Tampa. She’s going to take money as her speed figures are better than most of the runners in this race. However, she’s been one paced in the stretch of both of those races, so it;s hard to get too excited about taking her at short odds. She’s worth using as there’s not a ton of depth to this field, but I’d do so with some caution. 

Race 6:

Open $6,250 claimers will kick off the late Pick-5 wager today. I think Bryce Canyon (#6) is very interesting in here. Reynaldo Yanez is a name that locals aren’t yet familiar with, but he has won with 22% of his starters in 2025. He was the trainer of record for this one when he was a winner at Tampa in February. He was claimed away and he proceeded to run three dull races against much better fields. Even though the rise in class doesn’t appear to be too large on paper, he was facing above average fields for those conditions at Tampa. Yanez privately purchased this gelding on his own after his 4/16 race and he was rewarded with a win against a softer $5K N2Y field. That field doesn’t look much stronger than this field, despite the climb up the class ladder. He fits from a class and pace perspective and could easily be overlooked in the wagering. He’s one of my stronger opinions on the afternoon. Venezuelan Triumph (#2) is the backup plan for me in this spot. He was not very good here with $12,500-$10,500 claimers in an off the turf race here two weeks ago. That race came up stronger than your average off the turf race, so this is true class relief as he drops into a race intended to be run over the dirt. He was a two-time winner at Tampa over the winter and Paco Lopez seeing fit to ride feels meaningful enough.

Race 7:

Fillies and mares will go 5 ½ furlongs on the turf in this beaten $16K-$14K claiming race. All of the runners that passed through the entry box qualified under the N2L condition. It’s a quick turnaround for Giant’s Audible (#1), who broke the maiden on the dirt with $10K maiden claimers last weekend. However, I thought her debut at this distance at Saratoga last summer was respectable. There were some trouble spots in her next start on grass at Belmont at the Big A when she finished 10th in a state bred maiden special weight. Her last six starts came on the dirt where she ran some slow races, but was competitive in four of them. She’s at her best when she’s racing outside of horses, so the rail draw is not great. However, the outside stalls aren’t ideal at this distance either, so at longer odds, I’ll roll the dice and hope that Jean Aguilar keeps this filly from getting buried on the rail. Daniel Siculietano is still looking for his first local win, but his horses were live last weekend. He sends out Nobody’s Zapper (#7) in this race. This will be her first time sprinting on the turf. While her pedigree doesn’t scream turf sprint, she does have some speed and this 5 ½ furlong trip should suit her nicely. Her debut came on the turf at two turns and that wasn’t an awful effort. There are definitely some unknowns to think about with this one, so price is going to be important. However, I do think there is some upside here. Peony (#6) is going to take money in this race coming from the Clement barn. She fits on figures, but is taking a deep class drop. She makes sense in this race, but she’s more of a backup for me. In the same vein, Beautiful Bolt (#8) has been sidelined since February after another dull effort in the winter on the dirt. Her lone try on the turf was solid at Santa Anita back in the Fall of 2023. I’m not certain that sprinting on the turf is going to be her game, but I do think she’s worth thinking about in this race. She has a few decent efforts sprinting on the dirt and she was working well enough at Parx for her return to the races. This race might be designed to set her up for a two turn try next time, but I still think she’s worth thinking about using on some tickets. 

Race 8:

New Jersey bred fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this allowance contest. Cathal Lynch seems to be holding a pair of aces with Cool Spite (#5) and Howler (#8). These are the two A line plays for me in this race, but my preference on top goes to Cool Spite. Like her stablemate, she was a winner on debut as a two year old here last season. She was on the front end that day and pulled away late after battling hard.She closed a ton of ground in open allowance company on the turf at Laurel when making her next start, which came in October of last year. I’m not sure what kind of horse she wants to be, however, I do think being in a race with her stablemate who shares common ownership, offers some clues. Howler appears to be faster earlier, and there are others that could be vying to keep her company. Cool Spite showed that she could be effective when coming from off the pace, and that might be the way to get to the Winner’s Circle in this one, especially if the pace is hot and heavy. While I concede that the early pace could be bullish in this race, I do think there’s a reasonable chance that Howler is just better than her rivals. She beat a good field of boys on debut here on the 4th of July. She’s been sidelined since though. If she runs back to that last race, let alone improve upon it, she’s an easy winner with this group. However, there’s only one race in her running lines to go off of, so nothing is certain. I do think this duo has a significantly better chance of finding the Winner’s Circle than the other six runners entered here. 

Race 9, The $100K Cliff Hanger Stakes:

The featured race drew a solid field of nine runners along with four additional horses that will only compete if this race comes off the turf. I ;liked what I’ve seen from Signator (#1) since switching to the turf for Shug McGaughey, His first 12 career starts came on the dirt, where he showed some ability, winning three times and coming within less than a length of the winner in the Queens County Stakes on New Years Eve in 2023. His 2024 was limited to only four starts after having a setback at Saratoga in the summer. He came back in March, trying the turf for the first time at Tampa, where he came with a strong last to first surge to score in allowance company. He moved up to the stakes level, winning the Henry Clark Stakes at Laurel last month while coming from off the pace again. In both races, he showed a strong turn of foot while getting perfectly timed rides from Samuel Marin. I think he’s going to continue to progress on the grass this year. Forever Souper (#5) was not good when finishing 5th in a decent allowance race last month at Laurel. He was a bit slow into stride on a day where the early tempo was on the slower side. He came with a four wide bid on the far turn, but he flattened out late. That was his first subpar effort in a long time and he has a good track record over this course. Antonio Gallardo is familiar with him, having won twice aboard him at Presque Isle last year. He has some good races on this course and he fits well from a pace perspective in this race. I’d like to do a little better than his 7-2 morning line figure, but I do see him as a player with this group. Chad Brown got off to a slower start here last season, but he’s had a pair of winners and a second place finisher from four starters thus far at this meet. He sends out Belouni (#4), who is making his second start off the layoff. He came to the states in 2023 and was a winner in his second try here, scoring in the Woodhaven Stakes at the Big A. He went to the sidelines after a pair of dull efforts at Belmont. He ran well in four tries in 2024 and he came back a winner at Tampa in his 2025 debut. He’s another one that should be in a good spot in this race, and while others might have a little more upside, I think he’s going to be right in the mix with these today.

Race 10:

The day ends with a $5K starter allowance sprint, going six furlongs. I don’t think anyone in this field is as good as He’s In Charge (#8) is right now. He was an easy winner here two weeks ago as the 4-5 favorite in a starter allowance race on Opening Day. When Ness and Paco Lopez have teamed up in the last year and a half, they have won 39% of the time. His outside draw is a plus and assuming he stays in his current form, I think he’s going to be too good for this group. Face Abarrio (#3) becomes the backup play if for some reason the top pick doesn’t compete. He had a decent stretch on this oval last season. His best can challenge the top pick, but he might be a few races away from getting back to that point. I do think he’s a candidate to move forward though. 

2025 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners, 6/35 (17.1%), $34.60 $0.99 ROI

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2025 to see if this trend continues. 

Under the data charts, I’ve also summarized some post position information. Horses in wider posts, especially in races coming out of the chute in 1 1/16 races at 12 and 24 feet settings have struggled mightily. Four winners last season came from posts 10 and beyond. All four of those races started at one mile. Those races begin in the straightaway at Monmouth. No winners came from those posts all season long in races that started in either the 5 ½ furlong chute or the 1 1/16 mile chute. Conversely, there’s not a huge disadvantage for starting in posts 7-9 at any rail position. This will be another data point that I’ll continue to collect throughout the 2025 meet in order to see if these trends continue. 

0 Feet (In 2024, 3/30 – 10% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 7 winners in 31 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 9 winners in 31 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 31 races 

Posts 10+: 3 winners from 20 races

12 Feet (In 2024, 11/58, 19% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 21 winners in 58 races 

Posts 4-6: 24 winners in 58 races

Posts 7-9: 13 winners in 54 races (4 races with less than 7 runners)

Posts 10+: 0 winner from 13 races

24 Feet (In 2024, 14/54, 25.9% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2025 Data

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 19 winners in 54 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 23 winners in 54 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 47 races (7 races with less than 7 runners)

Post 10: 1 winner from 9 races*

The lone winner came in a one mile race where the chute was not employed. Horses starting from Post 10 in 1 1/16 races starting in the chute were 0-7.

36 Feet (In 2024, 12/35 of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 12 winners in 35 races

Posts 4-6: 14 winners in 35 races

Posts 7-9: 9 winners in 33 races (2 races with less than 7 runners)

Data for Winners Last Start

Another data point that I’ve been collecting over the last several years is trying to track which tracks/circuits are producing winners early on at the Monmouth Meet. Tampa runners were very strong here last season with 18 of 68 winners last running in Oldsmar, Florida. NYRA runners that are showing up here have not been faring as well as they were a few years ago