Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Friday, 6/26/26 – By Eric Solomon

Friday afternoon racing begins this week at Monmouth. There’s an eight race card today with a later first post of 2:00 PM (EDT). The rails for the four turf races this afternoon will be all the way out at 36 feet. 

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll start the week with a $16K-$14K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares dashing five furlongs over the turf course. There’s not a lot of strong recent form to go off of in this race and this could be a spot where a random horse jumps up and shocks this weak group. However, there’s nothing in the recent form lines that could get me to readily play some of the longer prices in this race. I landed on Ausplexity (#2) as the narrow pick over April Spun (#3), who figures to be the favorite. Ausplexity showed speed, but faded against maiden special weight in her lone try at this distance on the turf. She likely fits at this level as she drops in for the lowest tag of her career. Melissa Iorio had some success with Terri Pompay runners here last season and this is the first horse that she’s named to ride here this season. April Spun ran a big race, seemingly out of nowhere to be second, beaten only one length at this level in her last start. That came in a race going 5 ½ furlongs in her second try on the turf. If she runs back to that race, she’ll likely win here. However, it’s not certain that she can do that, so I’m not sure I want to be too heavily invested in her at odds below 2-1. 

Race 2:

A half dozen fillies and mares will go one mile over the dirt course in this beaten $30K-$25K claiming race. Five of the six runners are only three years old, but My Lil Flirt (#3) is the only two-time winner in that bunch. The other five entrants qualified for this race under the N2L condition. I do think My Lil Flirt is the one to beat in this spot. My case for her last time out was that she’s clearly a different horse when she’s going two turns. Her three efforts at two turns on traditional dirt have yielded a pair of wins and a third place finish. She finished off the board in her other four tries, beaten by over 61 lengths combined in those races. She beat an off the turf field at this level in her last start, so she might be facing a little tougher today. However, if she can replicate her last few tries, she should be right there once again. Ruby Ruby (#6) drops in class for this race and she’s the other runner that I’ll take on my tickets. It took her ten tries to break her maiden, but she did so at Penn in a big way two starts ago, scoring by almost 13 lengths in an off the turf maiden allowance test. She came back to run a credible 4th on the grass when facing beaten $40K-$30K claimers on the grass here three weeks ago. She’s back on the dirt and ran well enough against winners for the first time in her last try to make me think that she is getting better. 

Race 3:

A half dozen fillies and mares are entered in this beaten $5K claiming race carded for six furlongs on the main track. In my eyes, the horse with the best current form is Don’t Tell Tammo (#1), who is the top pick for me. Blinkers will come off after she finished off the board against a much tougher group here in her last start. Toss her race two starts back when she lost all chance at the break on the grass. Her best races have come on the dirt when she wasn’t wearing blinkers and now she drops in class while also making her third start of this current form cycle. I think she’s sitting on a better effort. Duela Dent (#2) is also making her third start off a layoff in this race and, like the top pick, she is dropping in class. Although her first two starts during this season were not spectacular, she showed that she liked this course last year. She figures to appreciate moving away from Unsolved Mystery who buried her in her last two starts. 

Race 4:

Aria D (#4) catches the eye in this $40K-$30K maiden claimer for fillies and mares going five furlongs on the grass. She was sharp two back when making her second career start at The Meadowlands. She led almost every step of the way before being nailed on the wire by Lidia Rose when facing state bred maiden allowance types at the same distance as today’s contest. She made her 2026 debut in a tough open maiden special weight race here when going 5 ½ furlongs. She drew the outside post and had to concede a decent amount of ground coming out of the chute. She tired late and finished at the back of the pack that day. She’s facing a smaller group while getting back to five furlongs and she should be more fit in her second start off the layoff. The class relief should also be welcomed here. Darty Time (#2) is very logical in this spot. She’s likely going to try to take this group from gate to wire while getting back on the grass. She faltered in the slop in her last start, which was taken off the lawn. Her lone effort on the grass came at Laurel with open maiden special weight types and that was a sharp effort. There’s no reason to think that she can’t recover after her rough outing last time around. 

Race 5: 

The best betting race of the day is clearly this state bred maiden special weight race for fillies and mares going six furlongs. Friday cards at Monmouth can be a little interesting in terms of the jockeys. Paco Lopez and Samuel Marin are named to ride at Colonial Downs today, so there are opportunities for different names to find the Winner’s Circle.. A new face to the Jersey Shore is apprentice rider Jefferson Skerrett, who has been doing most of his work in Ohio early in his career. In fact, this is scheduled to be his time riding professionally outside of the Buckeye State. He is named to ride a few horses today, and I’m interested in his longshot mount, Count My Blessings (#3) in this spot. She was really good in her career debut  at the end of the 2025 meet here. She led most of the way before giving way late to lose by a length. She made one more start on the turf upstate at The Meadowlands before going away for the winter. She came back last month in a competitive race at this condition. She went to the front in a 5 ½ furlong dash, but she was a little leg weary late that day. She’s now making her second start off the layoff and she’s racing for a barn that is capable, despite having a very tough start to this meet. The price should be square on this horse that I think has a decent chance to upset this field. Eddie Owens has a pair of Sea Wizard sired horses in this race, sending out both Stormy Girl (#11) and Stormy City (#12). Jorge Vargas has been 5-12 when riding for Owens at Monmouth during the last two meets and he gets the call aboard the firster Stormy Girl. Owens continues to do well with the Sea Wizard homebreds that he sends out for Holly Crest Farms. The debut numbers continue to be solid and her works have been gradually improving. I think she makes sense in this spot. I prefer her to the stablemate, Stormy City, but this one showed in her two year old season to think that she could contend at this level in her first start off the layoff. She’s more of a backup for me though. Garden Gal (#2) is the third A line runner in this race. Many of these runners got familiar with each other last month in the same race that the top pick is coming out of. This filly was in that race as well and she might have had the toughest trip of any of horses coming out of that race. She was forced to take up a few steps after leaving the gate, which cost her some valuable positioning. She rushed up into contention, but had to wait behind rivals before tipping out three wide and making a mild bid while running in between horses. She finished 4th that day, but almost certainly would have done better without the issues. She came back a week later to run in a one mile race at this level that was taken off the turf. She was forward most of the way and was narrowly beaten as the 7-10 favorite that day. She comes back to a sprint while making her third start off the layoff. I don’t think she’s going to be a maiden much longer, but I do think there are many chances in this race. 

Race 6:

The $3 Late Pick-3 begins with an optional $40K claiming/$25K starter allowance race which will be contested at five furlongs on the turf course. The logical pick in this race is Obstreperous (#3), who is making her first start since the fall this afternoon, while also making her first start for a new barn. She’s getting class relief for her 2026 debut, but she’s not entered for a tag, which is a good sign to me. She’s had a lot of success at this distance, including a pair of wins at this exact condition at Delaware in 2024. She faced much better fields in 2025 than any of her rivals here, scoring in open N1X and N2X races at Churchill and Saratoga, respectively. While there are definitely questions, I think her class will prevail. Allison Park (#4) is the backup for me in this race. As a six year old, New Jersey bred mare, she’s proven that sprinting on the grass is what she does best. She’s coming off an open allowance score here at 5 ½ furlongs last month where she went off at 23-1. If you took out the favorite, you could argue that she’s getting class relief in this spot today.

Race 7:

The $5 Late Double begins with a $5K starter allowance race for three year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles over the main track. I think this is a good spot for Tiger Moon (#5). This seven year old gelding was much sharper in 2025 before going off form over the winter. He came to Monmouth after a brief break and he was claimed for $5K on a day where he ran a decent second in a six furlong sprint. He tried the turf last time out, which is not his game. He ran in a competitive $12,500-$10,500 claiming race, which is always a salty condition here. He’s back going two turns on the dirt, which has been good for him in the past. Despite never winning here, he has three solid efforts over this course. I think this is a good spot for him to get right. Skylander (#8) was also claimed for $5K when racing here for the first time this season. He took it to that beaten $5K claiming field from the start and never looked back, winning in gate to wire fashion. He moved up in class but never was able to get going after missing the break in a sprint race. He’s back at two turns, but racing in a protected spot today. I’m expecting a better effort from him in this spot. Denying (#2) is in good form, but as a horse that will likely be one of the shorter prices, I do think you’ll need to proceed with some caution. He has only one win in his last 31 races. He has been knocking on the door in his last three starts on the dirt and he’s definitely a horse that likes two turn racing on the dirt. He’s probably a better fit underneath, but he’s hard to completely leave off the multi-race tickets just because he’s been in such solid form of late. 

Race 8:

The Friday nightcap is a beaten $16K-$14K claiming race for three year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. Ball of Fire (#8) in the outside stall is a three time winner where the other seven runners in this spot qualified under the N2L condition. While I typically prefer horses like that in races like this, all three of his career wins have been in dirt sprint races. I think this is a pretty big drop in class for him though after getting a wide trip with optional claiming/allowance types in his last start. He’s still interesting, but with a wide draw, he’s likely going to have to overcome some ground loss here. I’ll use him, but I’m looking at Enduring Angel (#4) as the top pick. He looked like he was struggling to figure out what to do on the turf when making his first grass start in his last race, which came at this level. He figured it out late though and was rolling down the stretch to get within less than a length of the winner. He had a little hiccup at the top of the lane when Jose Gomez was trying to get him out in the clear, and that may have been the difference between winning and losing. Carol Cedeno gets the call today and I think she can have this gelding a little closer in the early stages. Chantal Sutherland rode Magneto (#1) in that last race, but Luis Rivera Jr, gets the assignment aboard that one today. Sutherland meanwhile lands on Redemption Speight (#5), who was also right in the mix in that same race. This is another one that should be in a better position than he found himself in early on in that last race. If he can run back to his races from the late summer and fall last year, he’s going to be tough in this spot as well.

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 32/121 (26.4%), $185.50 ($1.53 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet