Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Friday, 7/31/26 – By Eric Solomon

We’ll close out the month of July with a six race, Friday afternoon card at Monmouth Park. Post time for the first race is 2:00 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll start things off with a $16K-$14K N2L claiming race for fillies and mares going five furlongs over the turf course. The rails for both of the turf races this afternoon will be set all the way out to 36 feet. I like the outside draw for Lupine (#7) in this race, who is making her first start since being moved into Devon Doughtery’s barn. This is a big drop in class for a horse that struggled in her last two starts, but I think if she can get back to one of her better races, she’s going to be much better than her six rivals. At long odds, I’d give a look to Bad Girl Betty Lou (#1). The rail is not ideal, but I do think she’s better than what she showed in her only turf start. She was roughed up pretty hard at the break at the Meadowlands last fall when she was making her first start in five months. She came back two weeks ago on the dirt and lost her irons shortly after the start, pretty much eliminating her from any serious contention. The drop is still warranted and I do think she’s better than some of the others in here. I was surprised to see her starting at 20-1 on the morning line, and while I don’t think she’s going to end up at a number that high, I would play her as the top pick at that number. 

Race 2:

Fillies and mares will go six furlongs in this beaten $20K-$18K claiming race. All six ladies here qualified for this race under the N2L condition. Blue Moon Tide (#1) is a New Jersey bred filly that has not found a fast dirt track in a while. She was well-beaten on the turf, the slop, and the synthetic in her last three starts. She drops in class and should find herself on a fast course today. She was sharp here last summer and she’s making her third start off the layoff today. There are definitely things to like here. I liked Derby Hangover (#2) in an easier spot last week, however, she defected from that race in favor of this short field this afternoon. She’s also making her third start in this current form cycle. Two of her three career tries in dirt sprint races were good enough to be right there at this level. 

Race 3:

Three year olds and up will go one mile on the turf course in this beaten $50K-$40K claiming race. All of the runners entered in this race qualified under the N2L condition. I like Kauai Breeze (#5) a good bit in this race. He struggled in his last two starts at Turfway where he seemed to go off form. He changed barns and was given some time off before returning to the grass. He broke his maiden on the lawn in Indiana last year and I think he can sit a nice stalking trip while Mo Action (#1) and Frankie G (#7) could be vying for early supremacy. Lindsay Schultz is having a very good meeting as she’s winning 22% of the time and ⅔ of the runners she’s sent out have hit the board. Orator (#4) is likely going to be right in the mix as well here. He broke his maiden in his 9th career start last month when he scored at Laurel in a $35K-$28K maiden claiming race. He also has decent tactical speed and he has a foundation with many longer races He’s been fairly consistent in his flat races, so he figures to be right in the mix as well. I’ll use Frankie G as a backup in this race. It’s no secret what the plan is going to be with him. Moya is going to send him hard and then try to ration his speed to have enough left to get home in front. He was the lukewarm favorite with Jersey bred allowance types in his last, but he failed to sustain his bid in the late stages of that one. Since he’s figured out what kind of horse he is, he’s had several close calls. I do believe it’s more likely that he comes up a bit short than it is to find him in the Winner’s Circle after this race. However, he has put forth enough quality efforts against better foes to think that he can hold on late if he’s left to his own devices. 

Race 4:

10 runners are entered in this state bred maiden special weight for two year olds dashing five furlongs over the main track. This feels like a bit of repeat story from the Sunday card as Cathal Lynch and Kelly Breen are sending out the second and third place finishers after a strong debut effort. Time to Groove (#2) was slightly better than T L From E K (#1) last out and I think he might be a little better once again today. Time to Groove is a half to Cairo Surprise, who is one of the best current New Jersey bred horses in the country right now. It took him three tries to break his maiden, but once he got going, he’s been tough to keep down. The debut effort was good, but not great, however, that was a fast time for this condition, so I do think that’s worth upgrading. Both runners ran too good to not use them, but I want to try a first time starter as the top pick. I landed on Sun Tan Man (#9) as the top pick. He’s the first foal to race from the state bred stakes winning mare, Alta Velocita. While I admit that this gelding might need a race before we see his best, I respect the connections and have faith that they’re putting him in the right kind of spot. 

Race 5:

State bred runners will go six furlongs in this $150K N3X claiming race. Happy Offering (#7) feels like the horse to beat in this race. He’s a four year old gelding that has been sharp in all four races at this meet. He’s coming off a tough trip on the grass in the Irish War Cry Handicap earlier this month. That race was on the turf though. His three other efforts on the dirt were better, including an allowance score two starts ago. His two losses came against Cairo Surprise, who might be the best New Jersey bred in training at the moment and Superfractor, who ran a monster race that day. I think he’s the best horse in this race and is in line for his third career win. Bon Courage (#4) is the back up for me in this race. He’s been a huge number in all four career starts, but he was good enough to upset a respectable maiden field here a few starts ago. He finished 13 lengths behind the top pick at two turns two back and he tried the turf last time. He’s back sprinting on dirt which was the case when he broke through the maiden ranks. This is a tough spot for a three year old to face older runners, but that also means there could be more upside.

Race 6:

Ten fillies and mares will dash six furlongs in a $10K maiden claimer that will wrap up the card. There are several class droppers in this race, but I’m struggling to reconcile why the favorite Mind Boggling (#2) is entered in this spot. He was claimed for $25K at the start of the meet and since moving to the turf, he has put together a few nice efforts against better fields in two turn races. After two nice efforts he takes a steep drop in class, while switching surfaces and cutting back to a sprint. For me, the math isn’t mathing with him. La Pluma (#3) is much more desirable in my eyes. She’s another one cutting back from two turn turf races to a one turn dirt sprint. While she isn’t proven at this trip yet, the fact that Edwin Gonzalez is taking the mount here tells me that he thinks this horse can run with these. Her two tries on the dirt came in her debut and in her first start off a lengthy layoff. She should be more fit when getting back on a traditional dirt course today. Miskita (#9) came back to the dirt at Parx in her last start for the first time in several races. She showed some early interest before backing out of the picture in that race. She still held on to third that day and now comes here in a spot where she could be better. Others are conceding anywhere between six and eleven pounds to her apprentice jockey, which may help her finish stronger today. On deeper tickets, I’ll take a chance in betting that Dylan Rose (#5) will take another step forward today. She was a well-beaten third in her last start here. I liked that she showed early interest for the first time that day. She’s a three year old that runs for a barn whose horses tend to get better with more racing experience. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 52/195 (26.7%), $295.90 ($1.52 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet