Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Monday, 5/25/26 – By Eric Solomon

Memorial Day Weekend will end at Monmouth with an eight race card. The weather is supposed to be a little more pleasant this afternoon, but all four races carded for the grass have been moved to main track. We do get our first two year old race of the meet and there’s a 1.4 million dollar yearling purchase to check out in that contest. First post today is scheduled for 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

There wasn’t a whole lot of turf form to go off of for this maiden special weight contest, so I don’t think this is one of the races that should be affected too much by the surface switch. I’m going to try Mo Action (#2) on top in this race. He’s one of two runners going out for Juan Avila in this race. He’s making his second start off the layoff, which is a strong angle for this barn. His dirt debut at two turns wasn’t terrible at Tampa. His last two tries were on the grass and while those efforts were okay, I suspect dirt racing is what he’s going to do better. The dam hasn’t foaled anyone special, but Uncle Mo is the best sire that she’s been paired with to date. Her foals have won six races to date and five of them have come in two turn dirt races. Noble Heritage (#1) is also worth using in this race as he rejoins the maiden ranks today. He was third in the Long Branch Stakes on Opening Weekend here. He was off Lasix for that effort, but he’ll get it back today. His two prior starts on dirt were solid and he has a strong Tomlinson Figure, suggesting that the off track will suit him well.

Race 2:

The first baby race of the meet features five, two year old colts dashing 4 ½ furlongs on the main track. All eyes will be on the 1.4 million dollar yearling purchase, Regent’s Park (#1) for Jorge Delgado and Paco Lopez. He’s owned by AMO Racing, who is continuing to increase their footprint in the U.S. The dam has foaled a debut winner and a stakes winner, so there is precocity in this pedigree. Most of the dam’s runners have done their best work in sprints, so that is also a plus here. This colt will be a huge favorite in this spot and with these connections, it’s hard to exclude him from tickets. However, I think Audible Johnny (#2) is worth a look in this race. He’s the first foal to race from a mare that lost her debut on the turf, but romped in the slop in her first dirt race. He’s sired by Audible, who gets 11% winners from his first time starters. However, his debuting two year olds are 4-13 at this 4 ½ furlong distance. His 35.2 blowout work last week suggests he’s ready to roll.

Race 3:

Beaten $8K-$7K claimers will go one mile on the dirt in this race. I think the nine year old gelding, Megan’s Honor (#5) is going to be very tough in this race. He’s finished first or second 24 times in 49 career starts, banking over $327K. After winning twice in February, he’s been knocking on the door in his last few starts. Michael Simone has been live with his runners at this meet and when Paco Lopez steps on, that’s a bug plus as they have 42% of the time with 19 starters since the start of 2025. He is stretching out to a two turn race for the first time in a while. However, he’s racing at the right level and he’s had several good two turn tries in his past. I’ll back up with Syntactic (#2) in this spot. He was the surprise pacesetter in a paceless race here two weeks ago. Street Glide (#7), who is slated to make his third start in three weeks, had his number that day, but I don’t think setting the pace is what he wants to do. I do like that he was forward though and I think his inside draw will allow him to stalk the early leaders. Jose Delgado feels confident giving the ten pound apprentice, Felix Vazquez Jr. another shot to try to get his first career win as a jockey. 

Race 4:

The Malouf Auto Group Starter Handicap Series is an annual series of turf races which progressively get longer throughout the series. The first of four races is today and it has been split into two heats, with the second division going as the 6th race today. There are bonuses for the connections of the horses that compete in at least three of the four races in the series, so there could be reasons for some of these runners to remain in this race, despite the surface switch. If going to try to beat the favorite, Two’s a Crowd (#5) in this spot. He missed nine months of racing after two poor efforts at the back end of 2024. It took him a while to get back on track, but he ended up in very good form at the end of the Tampa Meet after moving to the turf. He did have success on dirt prior to his layoff, but he wasn’t as sharp on off tracks. If he stays in, I think he’s going to be overbet. I’ll try the new face in the crown and make Swiss Slang (#4) the top pick. He had a productive Turfway campaign over the winter and has relocated to Delaware Park where he’s currently based for his new trainer, Blake Kelly. Martin Chuan is scheduled to make the trip here to ride this son of Summer Front who seems to be able to run over anything. I think he’s a horse that could be a player in other races in this series when they go back to the turf, so I think it could make sense to make the trip to New Jersey. Kathleen O’Connell has a pair of runners, but Surprise Package (#8) is the one she’ll want to send out with the surface switch here. This gelding has two straight wins in claiming company on the dirt at Tampa. He won three times at that meet and he does his best work at this kile distance. 

Race 5:

New Jersey bred fillies and mares will spring six furlongs in this $100K N2L claiming race. I’m willing to give Lidia Rose (#1) another look in her second start off the layoff. I thought she was interesting at a price in a state bred allowance race two weeks ago. She struggled to keep up though when making her first start on the dirt and her first start since an impressive maiden score on the grass at the Meadowlands. She’ll add blinkers for her second start off the bench. Despite winning on the turf, I do think she’s bred to be better on the dirt. The class relief and shaking off the rust from her last start should help her cause. Blue Moon Tide (#5) defected from a race on Sunday in favor of this spot. After some near misses, she finally put it all together to score at the end of the 2025 meet here. She ran twice over the winter at Gulfstream, finishing off the board twice. Her last start came on the Tapeta there, so that effort could be forgiven. She’s back at a better level and I think she makes a lot of sense here as well. I’ll also want to use Cassie’s Vault (#2), who also put up the goose egg in the same allowance race as the top pick. She has shown that she can come back and fire after a bad effort. She could wind up loose on the lead as she’s the only dedicated pacesetter on paper. 

Race 6:

I think the Admiral Mo (#7) is the one to beat in the second division of the Malouf Auto Group Starter Handicap Series. Kelly Breen named Paco Lopez to ride both Jurisprudence (#6) and this colt, who was entered as a main track only runner. That tells me that the plan will be for Jurisprudence to either defect from this race, or find a different rider. Admiral Mo was an easy winner when making his first start of the meet two weeks ago. After winning his first two career starts, he was sold for $34K last summer. It took Breen a little time to get this one figured out, but his last few starts have been sharper. He;s second off the layoff today and well spotted for his first try on the dirt at two turns. Eldest Son (#1) was the morning line favorite for this race based off his recent turf form. He has some efforts on the dirt way back in his running lines that would be competitive with this level. While I think it’s pretty clear that this one would rather be on the turf, with the bonuses that this series offers, his connections may keep him in this race.

Race 7:

I’m going to lean in to the Churchill invader Ur Desire (#4) in the optional claiming/N1X allowance feature this afternoon. She was sharp two back when beating a next out winner maiden winner at the Fair Grounds. She finished ahead of a runner that came to Churchill hand handled her business. This Cupid filly was entered in a salty race at this condition on the Oaks undercard and while she was a huge longshot against much better opposition, she had a miserable trip that cost her any chance of running a respectable race. She gets class relief and the few runners the Lindsay Schultz has sent out at this meet have run well. I think she can turn things around here. The backup for is Dyna Soar (#3), who was disqualified after winning at this level at Tampa in her latest effort. She ran well in her three starts on this oval last season. She likely needed her last race where she might have been getting a little tired, which could have caused her to drift out and interfere with Le Touche (#2), who she’ll see again today. I think the ceiling is higher for her though and I’m looking for her to run a stronger race here. 

Race 8:

We’ll wrap up this wet weekend with a beaten $16K-$14K claiming race which will now be run at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. Gaelicheartofgold (#6) is a four year old gelding that closed a ton of ground to break his maiden at Laurel when going six furlongs in a $15K-$10K maiden claimer there in the fall. He has two starts this year, both of which came on dirt tracks with some moisture in the ground. He ran okay in both of those starter allowance races in Maryland. I like the drop in class, which figures to be a deeper drop than it already is on paper when you consider the horses that defect and that many of the remaining runners would probably prefer this race to be on the grass. Final Joke (#10) probably goes into the starting gate as the favorite in this race. He broke his maiden here last weekend when going 1 mile and 70 yards in a $12,500-$10,500 maiden claiming race. Jorge Delgado grabbed him out of this race and wheels him back a week later in a fairly easy spot where he’s also running with a higher claiming tag. Chantal Sutherland has done well riding Delgado’s horses and she’s named to ride this one for the first time today.

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 13/47 (27.7%), $70.30 ($1.50 ROI)

Data for Winners Last Start

A data point that I’ve been collecting over the last several years is trying to track which tracks/circuits are producing winners early on at the Monmouth Meet. Tampa runners have fared very well here over the last two seasons. There has also been a downward trend with New York shippers early in the meet here over the last few seasons, so that is something worth paying attention to as well in 2026.

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

2024-2025 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 21 winners in 58 races in 2024 / 19 winners in 48 races in 2025

Posts 4-6: 24 winners in 58 races in 2024 / 17 winners in 48 races in 2025

Posts 7-9: 13 winners in 54 races in 2024 / 12 winners in 41 races in 2025

Posts 10+: 0 winner from 13 races in 2024 / 0 winners in 4 races in 2025

24 Feet (In 2024, 14/54, 25.9% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2025 Data

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet