Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday 6/27/26 – By Eric Solomon

The Saturday card at Monmouth is highlighted by the Jersey Girl Handicap for state bred fillies and mares routing on the turf. Riding Pretty won this race last year and she’ll face off with the 2024 winner, Mia’s Crusade. First post this afternoon is 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Seven runners will go 5 ½ furlongs on the turf course in this $12,500-$10,500 claiming race that starts the afternoon at Monmouth. Shakin Loose (#6) ran several races here last season that would likely be good enough to win this race. His four starts in 2026 though have been below average by his standards, including his line turf race this year at Penn. He was wide throughout in that dash where he faced a solid allowance field. He’ll be getting class relief while returning to his favorite course. The distance and the competition both should be to his liking this afternoon. Beware of Pride (#4) is another runner that should appreciate the return to the grass today. He was a two-time winner at five furlongs on the turf at the end of last summer. His three starts at this meet have all come on the dirt and while none of those efforts were terrible, none of them were great either. All three of those races came against better competition, so with the surface switch and the drop in class, I think he can take a step forward. On deeper tickets, Discreet Devil (#2) is yet another horse that has some turf form that is better than his recent dirt efforts. He was a winner with starter allowance types when going five furlongs at Delaware last summer. His first three starts back from a four month break were not very good, but his last effort was a bit better. He has two wins and six in the money finishes in 11 career tries on the turf. I’m siding against the two morning favorites in this race, Natural Harbor (#3) and Summer Bee (#5). Natural Harbor is speedy, but trying the turf for the first time as a six year old. I’m not confident his strong early foot will translate to the lawn. Summer Bee ran a career top number last out when getting Paco Lopez in the saddle for the time. He tends to upgrade his mounts, so I’m wondering if a new rider in the irons will be as effective. 

Race 2:

The first dirt race of the day is a $12,500-$10,500 maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going six furlongs. Seeking Serenity (#6) drops in class for her third career start. She was sharp enough in her first two and she lands in a field that is probably a bit weaker than the par for this level of competition. She’s going to be a short price in this race, but it’s hard to find someone that has a legitimate chance to beat her here. Icecream With Phil (#5) is the backup in this spot. She was While a long way behind the top pick when they met last month. They’ll  both hook up and I do think she’ll be more competitive. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will sprint 5 ½ furlongs on the turf in this beaten $16K-$14K claiming race. Eight are entered in the body of this field along with three MTO runners. Elsie’s Smile (#4) is a three time winner (all of which have come on the dirt) and everyone else qualified under the N2L condition. While there’s no turf record to go off of for this one, there is some pedigree there to think that she could contend with this group. She’s sired by Cajun Breeze, who gets 10% winners from his turf sprinters. She’s the first foal to race from a Long Island Sound mare. That one did his best work at long distances on the turf for Aidan O’Brien. The grand dam was sired by City Zip, so there’s reason to believe that this filly that knows how to win races, could find herself quite comfortable on the turf. Bashful Baby (#6) broke her maiden three weeks ago on this course at this distance. She was claimed by Juan Avila, who has won with 5 of his last 10 runners in their first starts off the claim. His runners tend to do better on the dirt, but this filly does seem to fit well with this group. Mya Papaya (#7) is also worth thinking about in this race. She was dull in her one turf try against better last season, but she was also dull on debut on the dirt. Her last three starts on the dirt have been much sharper, so there’s reason to believe that her game could translate to the lawn. Her dam was graded stakes placed in a turf sprint stakes and she was a two time stakes winner on the lawn when going one mile. 

Race 4:

Max’s Glory (#1) makes a lot of sense in this $7,500-$6,500 N3L claiming race. He makes his third start off the layoff this afternoon for Chuck Spina and should be getting back into the better form that he showed here last summer. He ran into Brave Bear in his last start and that one has been in strong form while dominating his last few starts with lower level claimers here at the Jersey Shore. Both of his career victories came on this oval, including a strong off the pace effort to win on Haskell Eve last year. Son of a Slew (#2) is currently in decent form, and is going from turf to dirt for Mike Dini. While it does concern me a bit that all of his best work has come on the grass, his figures suggest that he fits on the dirt with this level. Deportivo (#7) is trying to win back to back starts after disposing of a N2L group at this tag in his last start. It isn’t always the easiest thing to win in the first start at a new condition, but he’s another one that definitely fits well with this group.

Race 5: 

The best betting race of the afternoon is this optional $40K claiming/$25K starter allowance race going 5 ½ furlongs over the turf course. I’m very interested in Heart and Soul (#9), who is getting back on the turf for the first time in a while, while also moving to a higher percentage barn. He’s been racing primarily in locales where grass racing is not an option, so I get him not having many grass opportunities of late. He does have solid turf form in two turn races earlier in his career, so the surface switch is not an issue for me. While he’s never sprinted on the grass, he was competitive against some very fast dirt sprinters at Oaklawn over the winter. Delgado has had him for a few weeks now and the fact that this Goldencents gelding has a pair of bullet works over the main track here tells me that he’s going to be asked for speed in this race where there isn’t necessarily a ton of other speed to contend with. It’s going to be about price for me, he’s starting off at 5-1 on the morning line, but I do think there’s a chance that number climbs. If he’s available around 8-1, I’ll push a lot of chips into the pot with him. Both Maximatch (#1) and Pealing Lad (#10) are horses that should be reasonably priced in this race and both of these had nice races on this course last summer. Pealing Lad might be best when there’s a a little extra moisture in the course. There are chances for storms with some rain to come through at some point on Friday, so a course that is labeled good or yielding would likely cause me to upgrade his chances. He was very sharp in his first race off the bench here last summer when going this distance at this same course configuration. When the rails were closer in (0 or 12 feet), closers seemed to have a better chance winning races at this distance last year. Maximatch should be able to secure a decent pocket trip from his rail post in this race. He’s been on a steady diet of two turn races, but I think he’s at his best when going this distance. He was sharp at this distance on this course last year, scoring in July and then running a strong race to be second at 17-1 at this same condition in August. Both I’m a Gambler (#4) and Jetaros (#5) should be shorter prices in this race, and both are worth covering with as well. I’m a Gambler has not sprinted on the turf, and while he definitely has a sizable class edge, I’m always hesitant to back a short priced runner when they’re doing something new. Jetaros was a winner in open $22K-$18K claiming company in his last start at the end of May. He went off form in the second half of 2025 so that was a strong effort in his first start off a six month break. He moves up in class and is facing a salty group. His best effort wins this race, but five straight efforts that were below his par prior to his last start, he’s another runner that I’m not running to back at short odds. I’ll use them, but more as savers in this race. 

Race 6:

The $3 Late Pick-3 begins with a beaten $16K-$14K claiming race going six furlongs. Six of the runners in this race qualified under the N2L condition while Copernium (#3) is a three year old with four wins in six career starts. He’s going to be a short number in this race, but he does lose Paco Lopez as he’s riding in Virginia this weekend. He was much better than many of these in his last start when going five furlongs; The added furlong shouldn’t be an issue, but his figures have been a bit stagnant, so I’m not sure how high his ceiling is. If we’re going to get a big payout in the late multi-race wagers, I think it’s going to happen with another runner beating him. I think Redacted (#5) has the best chance to do so in here. He’s an older runner that is 1-18, which is not ideal. However, he does have five runner-up finishes, so he is competitive. He was trounced in allowance company here in his last start and now he drops to the lowest level of his career yet. There are many speed and fades types here, so I do see him as a runner that could be gaining on the favorite in the later stages of this one. A deeper tickets play could be the lightly raced runner, Dixie on Fire (#6). He broke his maiden two starts back at Tampa with $25K maiden claimers. He was overmatched against allowance types in his local debut, but now he drops back to a level that should be more his speed. With Paco Lopez and Samuel Marin out of town, Luis Rivera Jr. might be the best rider on the grounds this weekend and he’ll get the assignment aboard him for the first time today.

Race 7, The $75K Jersey Girl Handicap:

This one mile race for fillies and mares bred in New Jersey features a lot of familiar faces, including the winners of this race in the last two seasons. Riding Pretty (#6) got the job done last year and I think she’s well-spotted to repeat in the only two turn turf stakes race of the year for Jersey breds. She’s been facing much tougher opposition out of state and while she struggled in the Spruce Fir Handicap in her last start, she’s simply not a one turn dirt horse. This is the race that her connections point to each year as this will be her 4th time in this race. She always shows up here on the grass and I assume it will be no different today. I’ll look to a three year old, Creative Stuff (#1) as a longshot to think about underneath. She was thrown into the wolves den when going in the Grade 3 Oceanport Stakes two weeks ago. She was not a factor that day, but her figure showed that she might be the most competitive at this distance on the grass. She might need another year before she gets her name on the trophy, but I do think she’s a horse trending up for this race. 

Race 8:

The Saturday nightcap is a beaten $5K claiming race going a mile and seventy yards over the main track. The trio of Fluff the Pillow (#2), Knox (#3), and Unbridled Bomber (#4) should offer enough coverage to close out the horizontal wagers. Fluff the Pillow is the top pick as he seems to have turned around his form since coming to Monmouth two back. His Parx form was bad, but perhaps the winter track there was not where he wanted to be. He was third at this level two back and was third last out. He was no match for Brave Bear and No Denying that day, but those two are much better than this group and they ended up in a race of their own last time. Knox (#3) makes his first start since coming to Juan Avila’s barn. His numbers with new acquisitions are very strong, so this one is worth thinking about here. My concern about him is that he does his best work in longer one turn races. He’s winless at two turns, but there is not a ton of depth here. Unbridled Bomber was Grade 3 placed many moons ago, but he’s been in steady decline since. It’s been a while since his last score, and he doesn’t tend to use a lot of early speed. However, he’s still worth considering in this spot as this will be the lowest level of competition for him to date. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 32/121 (26.4%), $185.50 ($1.53 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet