It’s the first Saturday card of the summer season at Colonial Downs which also features the first couple stakes races of the meet with the Brookmeade and Edward P. Evans Stakes going as races 7 & 8 respectively. Given this card falls five weeks before Virginia racing’s biggest day, it will be important to monitor these races as some may be running back on the marquee August 1st card.
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Selections
- Race 1: 8-9-2-5
- Race 2: 2-7-3-1
- Race 3: 6-5-3-2
- Race 4: 3-2-6-9
- Race 5: 1-6-2-12
- Race 6: 9-10-7-1
- Race 7: 2-1-7-5
- Race 8: 3-5-2-7
- Race 9: 8-9-7-3
Colonial Downs Race 3: Boost (#6) at 10-1 or higher
Many connections that are prominent at Colonial are present in this N1X for VA-Restricted company. That includes the connections for The Magic Ofmovies (#5) where the track’s all-time leading rider Horatio Karamanos links up with Trombetta with this 3YO filly. She ran a race in the fall of her 2YO year that makes her interesting, I just wish I saw more of an excuse in her seasonal debut, but maybe the drop in class helps. The horse to beat is certainly Flame Dancer (#3) who goes out for the high-percentage Larry Rivelli barn. She’s a distinct threat to wire this field, but she’s failed at short prices plenty in the past. Finch (#1) won on debut for these connections that specialize with turf sprints at Colonial, but has never been less than 12-1 in her career and will be a fraction of that on Saturday. Hovekoma (#2) interested me as another MSW winner over course and distance, but I found it interesting her rider jumps off to be aboard Boost (#6). I landed on her as my top pick in the spot despite being 30-1 on the morning line. She’s coming out of a pedestrian maiden win in a race washed off the turf where she was allowed to control on the front end against a weak field, but this pedigree is tailor-made for an improvement on grass. By Mendelssohn out of a British bred mare, this filly has put a couple works in on the grass this year and Toledo and Bailes hit at 30% together over the last year.
Colonial Downs Race 5: Gossiper (#1) at 8-1 or higher
I have no qualms with those who believe Americandreammaker (#6) is simply too good for these. This Michelle Hemingway trained mare just won convincingly for $17.5k down at Gulfstream and now shows up here in this $10k start winning 3/5 two-turn turf routes. However, I’ve noticed over the years that goofy results happen in these low-level claiming turf routes with full fields. My idea of that goofy horse is Gossiper (#1) who hasn’t run over the flats since winning a $8k N3L at Gulfstream over the synthetic. There’s plenty of precedent for horses switching from jumps and winning at this track and she broke her maiden at this distance. These races often come apart at the end and we know she’ll have the fitness. I could even make a case for Diva Ready (#2) who stretches back out to two turns after getting a prep race in her seasonal debut sprinting. She’s won routing before and could get a nice trip covered up on the inside.
Colonial Downs Race 6: Wunderkind (#9) at 7-2 or higher
I’m not enthralled with the chances of any of the short prices listed on the morning line in this $30k N2L sprinting on the grass. None of Chasing Sunsets (#1), Levigata (#3), or Eileen’s a Warrior (#6) have won over the surface yet with the last of those not having stepped foot on the grass. My top three choices Salty Gal (#7), Wunderkind (#9), and Pearl of Pearl (#10) have all won sprinting on turf and are all listed at 8-1 on the ML or higher. Salty One is the filly most questionable at this class level given she won a $16k claimer earlier this spring. Meanwhile, Pearl of Pearl comes into this race after winning a $35k MClm race at Gulfstream and did so stalking the pace. Now, she goes out for the dangerous Jose D’Angelo barn. However, my top pick is Wunderkind. I liked this filly last summer when she broke her maiden over this course despite some trouble. I’m willing to forgive her speed-pop-and-fade race last time and find it interesting Brittany Russell dipped in for $25k to claim her. Now, I’d imagine it wasn’t ideal that her next start is coming 6+ months later, but this ownership group is locally-based and loves to point horses to this meet. She’s got the best line of turf form in the field and could be a square price.
#TheCheatSheet
2025 Summer Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 208-57-45-33 (27%, $1.88); Featured Horses: 65-11-13-17 (17%, $1.86)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 127-27-28-19 (19%, $2.01); Featured Horses: 51-9-10-12 (18%, $2.12)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 46%; B’s: 33%; C’s: 18%; X’s: 3%
