Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday, 7/19/26 (Haskell Day) – By Eric Solomon

The signature day of racing in New Jersey is upon us as the second half of the three year old season gets underway in earnest with the Grade 1 Nyrabets Haskell Stakes. Further Ado, Napoleon Solo, The Puma, and Ocelli are the headliners in this year’s edition. Several strong stakes races help support the best day of wagering at Monmouth this season. First post for this fantastic program is 12:00 PM (ET),

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 5th straight year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Haskell Day begins with a $16K-$14K maiden claiming contest going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. The rails will be all the way in at 0 feet for all of the turf races this afternoon. Paco Lopez missed Haskell Day last year as he secured some strong mounts in some graded stakes races at Saratoga. He’s back this year as he’s named on mounts each day this week. He’s scheduled to ride the favorite, Tall Risk (#1) in this race. This is a New York shipper who has just changed barns and drops in class after a pair of off the board finishes in Aqueduct. There are others dropping in class for this spot and he hasn’t really done anything of note on the track. He fits on figures though and will get a ground saving trip with the top local jock in the irons. He’s going to be on my tickets, but it’s hard for me to take a horse like this on top. The value won’t be there and I need to see proof that he wants to win a race before backing him at short odds. Tyrus (#9) is a live longshot that I’ll make as the top pick. He ran twice last year at Delaware in maiden special weight races on the turf. He has yet to get a clean trip in any of his turf races and the outside post here doesn’t really help his cause. However, his debut was good enough for me to think that he can compete at this level at two turns on the grass. I’ll look past his last two tries on the dirt and hope we’ll get him at 12-1 or higher in the win pool. Note that he is cross-entered at Penn National next week, but he’s the second runner to draw in off the AE list that day, so I’m thinking that he’ll show up here. Navesink Pirate (#4) was keyed up in his first start in almost a full year last month. He ran in a $40K-$30K maiden claiming race where he was eligible to run with the waiver. That was his first try at two turns on the turf in his 11 race career and it was the best race that he’s run to date. He worked pretty hard to secure a loose lead and while he got tired late there are things to like with him in this race. With the chute start here, I don’t think he’ll have to catch a flyer from the gate like he did last time out. I think he’ll be able to set a more moderate pace. Having that race under his belt now should make him tougher to run down late. 

Race 2:

Three year olds and up will go a mile and 70 yards on the main track in this optional $20K claiming/conditional allowance race. I get the idea of running on a big day, but this is a race that carries a $48K purse. I’m not sure I love the idea of Mott bringing Thunderously (#6) here from Saratoga to try winners for the first time. He was super impressive when debuting at Gulfstream in January, drawing off to win by five lengths in a 1 1/16 mile allowance race. He’s been off the radar since and has been working ordinarily at Saratoga since getting back in the barn. First level allowance races at Saratoga run for close to three times the purse of this race, and while perhaps the distance here is more appealing than running seven, eight, or nine furlongs at the Spa, however, he’s going to be pounded at the windows, and I’m not convinced he’s fully cranked for this spot. I’m also trying to beat Profound (#8), who is coming off a huge effort at Parx in optional claiming/starter allowance company. He’s been a solid horse, but he freaked in his last start. He changes venues and moves up in class and while Wyner gave him about six weeks off after that race, I still worry about him being a bounce candidate here. Since these two runners will likely be taking the bulk of the public wagering, I’ll try for some prices here. Filoso (#3) ships here for Chad Summers and is making his first start since January and his first start since he’s been gelded. He’s been running in some tough races. I don’t think the one turn mile races at Aqueduct were the best fit for him and it’s been a while since he’s run a competitive race. However, this is softer competition at two turns, which I do think is what he wants to do. I like the way he’s been working for this spot and I see him as an upset candidate. Admiral Mo (#9) draw the outside with Paco Lopez back in the saddle. They’ve teamed up for a pair of solid wins to start off the meet. He beat a $20K-$18K N3L claiming field at the start of the meet and he benefitted from a starter handicap series race getting moved off the turf in his last score. Assuming everyone stays in this race, he’ll be facing more runners in this race than his last two starts combined. However, I like his running style in a race where I think the shorter priced runners are hard to trust. Dionysus (#7) is the rare Brad Cox runner that will likely be flying under the radar in this race. He was purchased for $1,200,000 back in 2024, and it’s fair to say that he has yet to show that he’s the horse that they paid for. Chad Brown originally started with him and he was transferred into Cox’s barn where he relocated him to Indiana. He scored in an off the turf maiden special weight race there in his last start. Irad Ortiz gets the assignment this afternoon, which should keep his price from floating up too high. Cox definitely shows some more patience with these kinds of horses and I could see him moving forward in this race. 

Race 3:

The open $12,500-$10,500 claiming condition on the turf here at Monmouth is one of my favorites and this one mile contest is one that often shows up on this Haskell Day Card because of the large field sizes it attracts and the competitive nature of these races. 12 are entered, but there will be a maximum of 10 starters on the turf as there are a pair of MTO runners. I think Ruse (#7) makes sense in this race. Michael Simone is quietly having a very good meet with the limited runners that he’s brought to the Jersey Shore. He takes over the training of this War Dancer gelding who is coming off a pair of dull efforts on the Tapeta at Gulfstream. He’s 0-6 and has never hit the board in any of those synthetic races, so it’s fair to say that he does his best work on the turf. He is getting class relief for this race and has several efforts in the not-so-distant past that would be competitive with this level. Bar Fourteen (#1) has the pole position for this race and with his early speed, it’s likely that Jose Gomez is going to ask this Gemologist gelding for speed. He’s a horse that has had success on both turf and dirt in his career. He was nailed on the wire late in a race at this condition and distance two back. He came back to run a strong race in $25K claiming company in his last start in New York. He’s in good form and fits well with this group. Tocayo (#9) teams up with Juan Avila and Paco Lopez for the first time today. New acquisitions for Avila have been almost an automatic use lately. He’s hitting with 47% of these runners since the start of 2025. He has a pair of new acquisition winners at this meet and he connects over 50% when teaming up with Paco at Monmouth. Avila doesn’t usually have these horses sitting on the bench too long though. He has one winner from only four new starters coming back from a layoff longer than three months. He has a positive runner

Race 4, The Grade 3 Monmouth Cup:

Six runners will go nine furlongs on the dirt in this race. A pair of horses that made their mark over the winter at Gulfstream will face off here. Skippylongstocking (#5) was the winner of the Pegasus World Cup in January, coming from off the pace to deny White Abarrio his second straight score in that race. He was forced to skip the Santa Anita Handicap, but he rebounded nicely to easily score in the Essex Handicap at Oaklawn this fall. He battled hard to come up just short in the Alysheba in his latest try. He’s a 14 time winner with almost six million dollars in the bank. He makes a ton of sense, but I do wonder if the race shape better suits Knightsbridge (#4). I’m going to go back to the well with this one after his flop oin the Churchill Downs Stakes this spring. He came back to run a credible second behind Nysos when going one mile on the Wilson Chute at the Spa in the Met Mile. He had a wide journey that day, but he was still able to outfinish Journalism for second place that day. This will be his first true, two turn race. There have been some stops and starts in his career, so Mott really hasn’t been able to stretch him out yet. We know he’s a beast at the one turn mile, but he’s bred to handle longer distances as well. I think he’ll prove to be tough to run down in this race. 

Race 5:

Fillies and mares will go a mile over the turf course in this optional $20K claiming/conditioned allowance contest. This race kicks off the third of five different Pick-5 opportunities on this super-sized card. Chad Brown has been very successful here over the last two seasons, winning with close to 32% of his runners here since the start of 2025. He brings in Midway Memories (#5) from Churchill for this race and this filly just looks better than her rivals in this race. While I didn’t love her last race at Churchill, she had to deal with some significant bumping in the stretch. Her rival did initiate the bumping and it looked like it made it almost impossible for her to switch leads. She’s been knocking on the door with better fields at this condition. Brown typically doesn’t race his horses at Ellis very often, possibly because he hasn’t won a race there in over three years. I don’t mind the ship to Monmouth for this filly and I think she is one of the most likely winners on the card today. I’ll use Maximo Madness (#3) as a backup in this spot. Brandon Kulp wins a ton of races at Penn National, but he’s capable of taking his show on the road and getting a win. He claimed this mare for $10K two starts back when making her first start of the year at Penn in May. She came back to run a solid second in a N1X allowance race there in her last start. She’s making her third start off the layoff today and she feels like a horse that is eligible to improve in this spot today.

Race 6, The Grade 2 Molly Pitcher Stakes:

Monmouth Park has poured a lot of money into this race over the last few years and it has paid off as the graded stakes committee upgraded this contest to a Grade 2 race for this year. There was a strong field for this race last year and I think this field is even deeper. The race starts with Splendora (#7), who was the winner of the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. She has come back in her five year old season to win three of her first four starts, including the Grade 1 Beholder Mile in March. She struggled as the favorite in the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff, but she rebounded with a strong effort in the Grade 2 Shawnee Stakes there at the end of May. She’s been working well for her Monmouth Park debut and she figures to be right in the mix with this group. On her best day though, I think Alpine Princess (#6) is just as good, especially at this distance. She faced Nitrogen in the Odgen Phipps last month when that filly ran a generationally good race that day. Prior to that, Alpine Princess was really good at Keeneland when beating an above average field in the Doubledogdare Stakes. She’s a consistent mare that has rebounded nicely from rare dull efforts in the past. Todd Pletcher brought 11 horses here last year on Haskell Day and was shut out. Two years ago, he sent out nine and had only one winner as Tapit Trice ran well to score in the Monmouth Cup. Pletcher has severely limited his participation in Monmouth races this year, as he’s only sent out two runners at this meet thus far. He has Scalable (#1) tentatively entered in this race, but he does not have a rider listed. Irad Ortiz is riding Alpine Princess and Paco Lopez, who rode her to victory in the 2024 Monmouth Oaks, is named to ride Dry Powder (#3). She was cross-entered yesterday at the Spa as a MTO runner in the De La Rose Stakes, but was scratched. Her last two haven’t been great, but one of her better career tries came on this oval. She’s a deeper saver for me in this race. 

Race 7, The Grade 3 Winstar Matchmaker Stakes:

Chad Brown has been a dominant force in this race over the last 11 years. He has nine wins in that span and he’s trained the winner of the last six winners. He’ll try to keep that streak alive with Grayosh (#2) and City Girl (#3). Brad Cox will try to be the spoiler as he sends out the morning line favorite, Sweet Treasure (#1), who scored her first graded stakes victory in the Mint Julep Stakes at Churchill in her last start. Five G (#6) does not have a rider named, but she is cross-entered in the Grade 1 Diana tomorrow. Long Ago (#7) was cross-entered in the De La Rose Stakes yesterday, but she was a defection there, presumably in favor of this race. Five G  might be up against in this race, but if she does defect, that takes away a major pace player here. I see this race as a good battle between the favorites, City Girl and Sweet Treasure. I think they’re evenly matched horses and both can handle a variety of pace scenarios, so I think regardless of what happens with Five G, both of these ladies are going to be right there on the wire. City Girl is cutting back from 1 3/16 miles while Sweet Treasure is stretching out from 1 1/16 miles for the first time. While I don’t think that’s a huge deal, when you’re splitting hairs, that might be the deciding factor. I thought City Girl ran very well in the New York Stakes last month despite a miserable run into the first turn. She was boxed in tight and as a result, she was very rank throughout the length of the stretch, going into the first turn. Irad Ortiz, who opted to ride Sweet Treasure in this race, was finally able to get her to settle down at the back of the pack. She came with a bold late move into a slowish pace, and moved well late to get into 4th. I thought her third North American start in the Beaugay Stakes two back was very good. I like her pattern of improvement and I think she’s sitting on a bigger effort today. Sweet Treasure is a four year old that keeps getting a little bit better for Brad Cox. She drew the outside post in her last races, both of which were wins in Kentucky. I loved her two back at Keeneland in N3X company after coming out some above average stakes races in New Orleans. She set a dawdling pace to win the Mint Julep on the lead. I do think Five G defecting would help her a bit, but at the end of the day, she knows how to win races from anywhere on the track.  

Race 8:

We’ll take a one race break from the stakes action with this state bred, optional $15K claiming/N1X allowance sprint going six furlongs. A full field of 12 has been entered in this race which will be led by Superfractor (#11). He was a strong maiden winner in state bred maiden allowance company when making his second career start last July. He went to the sidelines and returned in a state bred $100K N2L claiming race here in May where he looked like an absolute stud, winning by over four lengths and posting a serious Beyer Figure of 86. That kind of effort would likely win about 99% of the races at this condition. Whether he’s capable of replicating that effort is another story though. He moved to the turf for a restricted allowance at Colonial on the turf. While I don’t love horses that make a big change after a big win, there’s not many races available for a horse like this with that kind of purse on the table. He faltered on the grass, which could have been an instance of a bounce or simply not liking the grass. He finished in front of Happy Offering two back and that one came back to easily clear this condition in his last start. I think he’s a safe bet in this race. There are storms in the forecast this afternoon, so the sky could open up at any time throughout the day. If we find ourselves working with an off track in this race, Doin’ Time (#10) is definitely one that I’d upgrade. I really liked his effort in the slop back in September when he raced from a similar wide post. He was much more comfortable on that part of the track than when he caught inside in his first try in the slop earlier in the meet. His lone win came at a two turn mile here early in the 2025 meet, but I do like what I’ve seen from him in his last three starts at this distance. He’s more of a backup on a fast course, but if the track is wet, I’d move him up to the A line and make him the top pick. 

Race 9, The $100K Wolf Hill Stakes:

The All-Stakes Pick-4 which carries a $400K guaranteed pool, starts with this 5 ½ furlong stakes race on the turf course. I loved Nothing Better (#6) in this race last year, but Fierce and Strong (#9) was the better horse that day, pulling off the 12-1 upset. I think Fierce and Strong could be a higher price, but I think he has a big shot to repeat this year. His first two starts this year have been a little disappointing, however, he made his first start off the bench in the Alphabet Soup Handicap on the Penn Mile undercard at Penn National. That was a 1 1/16 mile race, which is not his best distance. He likely needed that race as he was flat when facing some salty PA bred runners. He came back to face off with Nothing Better in a five furlong allowance race at Penn last month. Five runners defected from that race, which drew a stakes caliber field. He was forced to check when getting forced into a tight spot on the turn, which eliminated any real chance of him winning. He likes to come from off the pace and assuming that this field stays intact, he’s going to get a strong pace to close in to. His best distance is 5 ½ or 6 furlongs on the turf. He was probably the best horse in the Laurel Dash last fall when he had another miserable trip where he was forced to slam on the brakes going into the turn. He ended his season with a strong second place in the Turf Sprint Championship at Aqueduct. This is his third start off the layoff and I think those last two dull efforts are forgivable. Alogon (#5) is another runner that should benefit from the 5/12 furlong trip here. He was flat after a bobbling start in the Get Serious Stakes when going five furlongs here last month. He’s probably a little better at six furlongs on the turf, so Belmont probably can’t open soon enough for him this fall. He was the winner of the Grade 3 Belmont Turf Sprint Stakes last fall and he was the 2024 winner of the Turf Sprint Championship at the Big A. Flavien Prat will try to get the jump on the top pick when making his late move. Nothing Better is the speed horse that I will be using on some tickets here. He loves this course and he’s a very good horse when breaking from the gate. He was very sharp in his first start off the layoff, which had to be delayed a few times due to weather. A win in this race would put him over the million dollar mark in his career, which feels like a goal for his nine year old season. 

Race 10, The $100K Regret Stakes:

11 fillies and mares are entered in this six furlong dash. George Arnold sends out both Echo Sound (#5) and Kilwin (#9), but both are cross-entered in a stakes race tomorrow at Ellis. The plan appears to be to run Echo Sound here and have Kilwin scratch in favor of the Kentucky race tomorrow. This is worth talking about because both of these four year old fillies have the talent to make some noise in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint this fall at Keeneland. Echo Sound was favored in the Grade 1 Test last summer, but she struggled in that race, losing to Kilwin, who seems to have found a home on the dirt. Both fillies are set to make their 2026 debuts this weekend. Echo Sound ran very well when making her first start off the bench in the Miss Preakness Stakes last year. She came back to run a huge race in the Victory Ride before struggling badly in her two tries at seven furlongs in the Test and the Dogwood. While I think she has earned another shot at seven furlongs later this year, perhaps in a race like the Ballerina, six furlongs is her sweet spot. I trust that she’ll be ready and I’m expecting a big effort from her off the bench. Ms. Bucchero (#4) is the alternative for me here. She is getting back on the dirt after a failed effort on the Tapeta at Woodbine in the Grade 3 Whimsical Stakes. While she’s not perfect at this distance like the top pick, she does have 9 wins in 17 starts at six furlongs. She was second in this race last year and should be more fit for this year’s edition. She’ll be making her second start since joining Mark Casse’s barn today.

Race 11, The Grade 2 United Nations Stakes:

While both Program Trading (#4) and Just a Touch (#7) are going to get a lot of the attention in this race, I’m looking for Uncle’s Gold (#6) to run a big race for Paco Lopez today. He’s making his third start of his current form cycle and he’s trying a longer distance for the first time. He was a stakes winner in the spring at Tampa, so going off Lasix won’t be an issue for me. He’s been in very good form, winning five times in his last six starts. He’s going to need to take a step forward, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see this four year old move up here. The dam has produced some runners that have been competitive at this distance, including his full brother, who was second at the Spa at 11 furlongs last summer. There is the potential for some late afternoon storms today, so having a course with a little give in the ground might be beneficial to him. Program Trading absolutely loves this course. He was loaded in the Monmouth Stakes here last month, which earned him a fees paid berth in this spot today. That was his first win since his score in Grade 1 Turf Classic in 2024. Prior to his injury, had strong efforts at 1 3/16 miles, but he’s never gone this far on the racetrack. I think that race will serve as a confidence booster for him as he steps back into the graded stakes ranks. Both Just a Touch and Echo Lane (#3) are runners that I think of as deeper savers in this race. Just a Touch has started a nice second act on the turf, winning both career starts on the lawn so far. He showed a good amount of versatility by winning his allowance race at Keeneland by going from last to first to win at 1 1/16 miles. He stretched out to go 12 furlongs in the Cape Henlopen Stakes at Delaware Park last month. Irad Ortiz put him on the front and he was allowed to walk on the lead, pulling away late to score with relative ease. I think Program Trading is a much better horse than anyone in that last race, and I like the upside with Uncle’s Gold at a price. He’s off Lasix again, which may have been an issue with this one in the past. He was a huge disappointment on the dirt on Haskell Day last year when he faltered late to lose at 1-9 in the Monmouth Cup. I prefer others, but I don’t think I’m willing to let this one completely eliminate me from any of the multi-race wagers. Echo Lane has been dealing with Burnham Square in his last two turf route races and that runner looks like one of the best American turf marathon types in a long time. While the competition might be getting a little easier, he often gets close, but comes up a bit short. Luis Saez rode him to his last win in allowance company at Churchill last year and he gets back in the irons today. 

Race 12, The Grade 1 NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes:

Grade 1 winners Further Ado (#2) and Napoleon Solo (#6) will square off in this nine furlong contest for three year olds. With Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner, Golden Tempo, sidelined with a minor ailment, this is a chance for either one of these horses to start building a comparable resume to try to catch up in the race for three year old of the year honors. The results of the Belmont and the Matt Winn validated the efforts in the Kentucky Derby and the results of the Ohio Derby last month validated the efforts in the Preakness. Perhaps Napoleon Solo is catching up, but I’m still on the side that the Preakness just wasn’t a very good race. Further Ado is the one to beat, but it’s fair to point out that The Puma (#4) already accomplished that feat at Tampa in March. I do think that was a better spot for The Puma though and this is a better spot for Further Ado today. I think his stalking style fits the way this course has been playing throughout the meet. While he’s been an absolute beast at Keeneland, he showed that he can run a winning race against a solid group when he won the Matt Winn Stakes last month. I think when he looks Napoleon Solo in the eye, that one won’t have an answer. The Puma has been underrated throughout the Derby Prep season. He ran a huge race to beat Further Ado in the Tampa Bay Derby and then came back with a bigger effort to just miss in the Florida Derby. He was a defection before the Derby, but he’s been working steadily at Gulfstream over the last month and a half with the intensity picking up of late. He always shows up, but I do wonder if he’s going to be a little short in this spot. The local candidate that has some intrigue for me is Baby Vino (#3). There’s no denying that this is a huge class test for this son of Vino Rosso. He’s been a different horse at two turns though and his improvement pattern suggests that this is a spot where he could move forward again. He absolutely embarrassed the field in the Pegasus where he earned a free roll for this race. He ran that without being on Lasix, which was a question that he was going to have to answer after his maiden score two starts back. I think he’ll need a lot of things to go his way for him to win this race, but I think he’s the one that is most likely to add some positive value to the lower rungs of the vertical exotics. 

Race 13:

A field of eight is entered in this optional $20K claiming/conditional allowance race going one mile over the turf course.  I think speed on this course at this distance is a dangerous weapon and there is no better speed in this group than Mongolian Apple (#6). He’s at his best when he’s dictating the tempo and I don’t think there’s anyone that is going to be able to seriously challenge him in the early stages of this one. Renaldo Richards has done well when Paula Capestro entrusts him as the trainer when he’s based on the East Coast. He’s coming off a win in a ratings optional claiming race at Laurel where he was dismissed at 9-1. He appears to be finding his better form which went missing at the end of 2025. Copper Ghost (#2) is the morning line favorite in this race and he’s coming out of a strong allowance race which has already produced an impressive next out winner. Post Command was third in that race and he came back to score in an allowance race last weekend where he drew Post 11. It’s been at least three years since a horse won from that post at that rail setting. Furthermore, I did not like the ride on this horse one bit in that race. He posted a strong Beyer Figure despite finishing second, but he was not ridden aggressively whatsoever in a race where the pace was not strong. He was relegated to the back of the pack in the early stages. He came with an early bid, but was forced to stall, and then he was four wide all the way around the second turn. Paco Lopez gets the call today, meaning that there will be a tax on this horse. However, with Paco, you really don’t have to worry about the kind of passive ride that got this one in trouble last out. On deeper tickets, I’ll include Spanish Noble (#4), who has been very good here against lesser competition this season. This will be a class trest for this seven year old gelding, but I do like that he’s scored in his last two grass races after snapping a 15 month winless drought. 

Race 14:

We’ll venture back to the dirt for the finale on this marathon card at Monmouth. Three year olds and up will sprint six furlongs in an optional $20K claiming/conditioned allowance race. Dragonite (#7) was really good when he debuted here last June in a maiden special weight race. He blew the doors off the field, which featured a pair of next out winners. However, both of those runners scored in maiden claiming competition, which does make me question the quality of that group that he dominated. He’s been sidelined since and now he resurfaces at the end of a long day for Chad Brown and Flavien Prat. If he runs back to that race, he’s going to get his picture taken. I’ll be using him, but I’ll make a case for Complex Music (#1) as the top pick in this race. He’s a four year old that has a pair of sharp efforts in his last two tries at this distance. Those races are sandwiched around a five furlong race at Delaware and a seven furlong race at Parx. He wasn’t bad in either of those races, but I think there’s a little Goldilocks with this one where he’s at the just right distance.  Guapo Again (#5) is an old pro that keeps running solid races. Paco Lopez rode him to a handy four length score in starter allowance company two starts ago. He’s in the middle of a six race win/loss pattern and if that pattern holds true, he’s up for the win in this race today. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 43/167 (25.7%), $240.30 ($1.44 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet