Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday, 9/12/26 – By Eric Solomon

We’re down to the final weekend of racing for the 2026 season at Monmouth Park. There are eight races today and eight races tomorrow before the racing action shifts to the Meadowlands for nine nights of turf racing over the next several weekends. Admission is free for both days if you’re in the area. First post this afternoon is set for 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Seven runners are entered in the body of the field in this $40K-$30K maiden claiming race going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. I tend to be partial to horses that take a big step forward on the turf and that was the case with Howitzer (#3) two starts ago. He faced a soft group of $16K-$14K when he made his second start, which was also his first try on the turf. He tried state bred maiden special weight company in his last start, but that race was taken off the turf and moved to the main track. He finished a distant 4th that day after breaking slowly. He drops back in for a tag where he faces a field that is a little light for this level. He may have to prove he’s comfortable rating off the pace, especially if Landing Force (#1) is guns blazing for the lead like he has been in some previous tries at two turns. I do like his chances here though. Mustbethemunning (#4) is the class of this field. Rob Atras takes over the training and brings him north from Gulfstream. He wasn’t terrible in his last start against better on the lawn there, but he might be better on the Tapeta. Still, at this level and looking at the opposition, he’s a horse that makes a lot of sense.

Race 2:

Fillies and mares will dash six furlongs on the dirt in this beaten $5K claiming race. I think Poroblematica (#4) is a live longshot in this race. I liked her prospects in her last start at this level when she was making her first start since April. Pompeyo Gomez claimed her from that race where she was quick early, but fell apart late. Horses like that tend to improve in their next starts and this barn has a good record with horses first off the claim. If she can find her New York form, I think she’s a major player in this spot where she could be overlooked in the wagering. Ree Nee’s Six (#5) is the alternative for me in this race. She was claimed three weeks ago after a respectable second place finish in a similar race. She has a l;ot of route races in her recent running lines, but she’s clearly best at this six furlong distance. Joseph Pantaleo has only had four starters this year and she’s slated to be the 5th. In prior seasons, he’s been a lower percentage trainer. He’s 0-6 with runners that he’s claimed over the last five years, however, three of those runners hit the board in their first start for him, and they were in decent form when he claimed them. His last claim to race was Brave Bear, who missed the break when making his first start off the claim and finished 4th. He would go on to win his next start though. I mention all of this because there are times when a horse is claimed from a better barn to a lower percentage outfit, and for some barns, that horse becomes an immediate toss for me. That is not the case for me in this instance though. 

Race 3:

We’ll head back to the turf for a maiden special weight race for fillies and mares going 5 1.2 furlongs. Due to some heavy rain and storms in the general area over the last few weeks, we haven’t seen races at this distance on the turf lately. I’m not in love with the form from any of the starters, so this feels like a race where the firster, Princess Cleo (#6) could be playable. Cathal Lynch’s runners that he’s brought to Monmouth this year have generally been live. ⅔ of those runners have hit the board and 6 of his 21 starters here had their pictures taken. His firsters are typically well prepared to compete.Over the last five years, he’s won with three of his 20 first time starters in turf sprint races. The dam has not produced runners that have been good at first asking, but Cairo Prince is a decent first out sire. His runners in turf sprints are only 4-53, but there have been a handful of others that were pretty close. His turf sprinters overall have won 14% of the time. Honor the Numbers (#7) does feel like the one to beat in this spot. She just missed at this level two back in a race at this distance. She was second in her most recent try when going two turns. She’s back sprinting, which seems to be what she does best. After a mid-meet lull for the Delgado barn, he’s back to winning at a decent clip as he appears poised to win the training title for this meet. On deeper tickets, I’ll toss in Mio Coure (#1). She was wide in her debut at Gulfstream on the turf in February, but her effort wasn’t terrible. She changed barns and showed up in a maiden claiming race on the dirt at Delaware in her last start. She faltered as the favorite that day, finishing an uninspiring 5th. She’s back on the turf while moving up in class while Gregory Sacco is trying to figure out what she’s going to do best. Luis Rivera Jr. taking the mount is a positive sign. 

Race 4:

This $25K-$20K maiden claiming contest for two year old fillies is one of the more wide open contests of the day. I landed on Tell It Like It Is (#4) for Terri Pompay in this race. She’s trained all of the horses foaled by this mare and the best one by far was the full brother that was also sired by Long on Vanle. That one was third on debut in a maiden special weight race on the Tapeta at Gulfstream a few years back. Pompeii doesn’t have great numbers with s debut runners, but she scored with one last month and all three horses that she debuted at this meet hit the board and ran solid races. She’s a Gray (#3) drops in class after a bad effort in maiden special weight company at Parx in her latest effort. She ran into a dominating winner that day and was never involved. Her debut on this course was a little more lively, so if she can build off that effort, I can see her contending at this level. Her stablemate, Quality Spring (#7) has three races under her belt, and she’s put forth similar speed figures in each one. While the growth has been limited, she could be another runner that is simply in need of class relief in order to put her best foot forward. 

Race 5:

Fillies and mares will sprint 5 ½ furlongs on the turf in this $16K starter allowance race. Early speed can be very dangerous on this course, and Lupine (#5) may be the one who can carry her speed. She was sharp in New York in her first two turf tries, but she went off form for a few starts. Merrylegs Farm sent her from Miguel Clement to Devon Dougherty here in New Jersey back in July. Her first start was more of the same, but she came to life in her last start, winning in gate to wire fashion. She took the initiative early and was able to keep going in that race. She’ll move up in class to protected company, but I do think she’s able to compete with these. Her stablemate, Peony (#3), has a similar set of running lines. She ran some solid races in 2025 before going off form. Like Lupine, she was transferred to Dougherty’s barn to face softer competition in New Jersey. She showed some speed before fading in her first start off the bench, but I do think she’s in line to run a better race today. Bess’ Candy (#6) is a bit of a wild card in here. She’s making her third start of the year and her second start since being claimed by John Servis. She didn’t show much in her four year old campaign, but she ran okay in her first start this year. She came back for her new connections two weeks later to run a career top effort in a similar spot at Penn National .She’s been away since that race in the middle of June, but I do think there’s a reasonable chance that she could run back to that race.

Race 6:

The $3 Late Pick-3 begins with a beaten $7,500-$6,500 claiming race for fillies and mares going six furlongs over the main track. I think this is a great spot for No Denying (#1). She’s a horse that doesn’t have a particularly high ceiling, but her floor is very high. She finished off the board for the first time in her career in her last start  at this level when going a mile. She’s been popular at the claim box as she’s been claimed for $7,500 in her last five starts. She was sharper when she was sprinting, so I do like that she’s cutting back in distance for this race. Devon Dougherty trained this horse two starts ago and lost her via claim. She reached back in and claimed her as the owner, which is the definition of putting your money where your mouth is. She’s the lone two-time winner in the group, but she’s eligible to run here since she’s three years old. Infamy (#5) was a winner in her second career start when getting on the dirt for the first time. She handily beat a soft $10K maiden claiming group to score that day. She was claimed at this level two back over a course that was sealed. Michael Simone tried her at two turns in her last, which doesn’t seem to be what she wants to do. She cuts back to a sprint, which may be a recipe for improvement here. 

Race 7:

We have another turf sprint for the featured race this afternoon. Three year olds and up will battle in this optional $20K claiming/conditioned allowance race. Midnight Story (#1) has two really competitive races on this course at this distance. He struggled in his last start against a decent group of Jersey breds over a good course two weeks ago. The rail post is not the best place for him to be, but I trust Vargas to work out the right trip. Pivotal Moment (#7) is a major player in this spot. He’s been right there in his last few starts at this allowance level. His figures are strong and his efforts are decent, it just seems that he’s always coming up a bit short. Midnight Story was just a little bit better than him last out. I don’t love him as the favorite in this race, but I do want him on some tickets. The same could said for Maximatch (#4), who keeps putting up strong figures, but can’t seem to seal the deal. He’ll have a new rider with Christian Maragh today, which could help change his recent fortunes while trying to snap a 14 race losing streak. 

Race 8:

We’ll wrap up the final Saturday of the meet with a $25K-$20K N2X claiming race for fillies and mares going one mile over the turf course. Eazy Whirled (#2) is worth thinking about in this race. She was really good in the Jersey Girl Handicap at this distance on this course back in June. She lost all chance at the break in her next time around. She wasn’t as good in a sprint two back, which is not her game. However, you’ll often see New Jersey breds running in races where they are not doing what they do best because there are a limited number of races for them. She found her two turn race last out, but it was taken off the turf. She stayed in and finished a dull 5th, in what was more of a public workout than a competition (and not in the good way). She fits at this level and is worth considering at long odds. Precious Cat (#1) was strong in his first start off the layoff when going five furlongs against a group of beaten $16K-$14K claimers. She’ll move up in class while trying two turns for the first time. Mike Dini doesn’t have great numbers with horses going from sprints to routes, but the pedigree is there and this feels like as good of a time as any to take that swing. Francisco Martinez is a sharp rider with frontrunners on this turf course, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him take this initiative with this daughter of Curlin’s Honor. There could be a lot of speed signed up for this race, which could set things up for a horse that has some decent late pace. Too Many Mikes (#7) fits that bill while making his first start against winners. He broke his maiden in a race that was taken off the turf. He has better efforts on the turf though, some of which would fit this field quite well. She’ll make her first start after being claimed by Kelly Breen.

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 86/319 (27.0%), $514.10 ($1.61 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet