Monmouth Park Racing Preview – 5/28/21 – By Eric Solomon

It’s Opening Day at the Monmouth Park in Oceanport, New Jersey. Last year, they moved the Friday post time to 5:00 EST and offered six race cards to start the racing week. They are continuing to use that model again this year, racing Friday-Sunday, and adding holiday racing on Memorial Day and Labor Day. The lone turf race carded tonight is the Jersey Derby for three year olds going 1 Mile. This is a race with tremendous history in New Jersey racing, attracting names like Citation, Spend A Buck, and Da Hoss over the years. The forecast is not promising tonight, as rain and wind are in the forecast throughout the afternoon and evening at the Jersey Shore. I’ll handicap that race for both the turf and dirt.

Race 1: Top Pick: 6

The first race of the meet is a multi-conditioned claiming race for fillies and mares running with a $30,000-$25,000 tag. Despite being open to older fillies and mares that have never won twice, all seven entrants are three year old fillies, and two of them, Hightime Valentine (4) and Overdressed (7) have won multiple times. I think both are playable, but I’m going to use Nora Radd (6) on top, coming off a maiden claiming win at Tampa in the slop in February. Her figures are lighter than many of the others here, but I think that as a three year old, she is capable of improving. She appears to have the best early foot of this group and she’s proven on a wet track, both of which could be advantageous tonight. Jose Ferrer is arguably the best rider on the card, and probably the strongest finisher of this group. Her trainer, Jose H. Delgado, is going to win a bunch of races at this meet after a strong showing at Tampa. Tap The Barrel (5) and Overdressed both come from the Wayne Potts barn and both are coming out of the same $32K claiming race at Belmont on 5/6. Tap The Barrel was about four lengths better than her stablemate that day, and likely has an advantage again today. She, too, has run credible races on a wet course, most recently finishing a close 4^th with better at Aqueduct three starts ago. She has been getting better in her last three starts overall and should be dangerous among this group today. Overdressed is a four time winner, but hasn’t been progressing much. She’s consistent, as she’s essentially been running the same race in her last 10 trips to the track. She’s more of an underneath threat to me, but it’s hard to completely discount a four time winner in a field like this. Hightime Valentine was claimed for $16K three starts back and showed a good return on investment by beating an optional claiming/starter allowance group at Tampa last month. She leaves Tampa for the first time to make her 7^th career start, and she’ll be very dangerous if she can duplicate her last effort which was a career top.

Race 2: Top Pick: 6

The kickoff leg to the lone Pick-5 on the Friday card is an optional $16K/N1X allowance for fillies and mares three and up at one mile on the main track. Two of the six here are three year old fillies taking on their elders, but I think one of the four year old fillies, Firenze Freedom (6), has the advantage here. This four year old, New York bred daughter of Istan, runs for the same human connections as multiple graded stakes winning sprinter, Firenze Fire. She cleared the N1X condition with New York breds at Belmont in October, but remains eligible for this condition in open company. Her only career start at two turns was a strong effort with New York bred stakes company in the Bay Ridge at Aqueduct in December. She made the lead at the top of the stretch that day before being passed in the late stages of that nine furlong contest. She finished last of four, but not far behind that day. She was wide last out at this level with a stronger field at Aqueduct and she now makes her third start off the layoff today. Her one start in the slop was a credible effort while closing a good amount of ground last summer at Saratoga. Miss Marley (4) and West Side Girl (5) are the two three year old fillies here and both are live. I think Miss Marley might offer the better value, as I think she’ll be one that can improve while going two turns for the first time. She was off the board against a strong N2L allowance field at Keeneland last month where the winner came back to win a stakes in her next start. She is sired by Union Rags out of a Holy Bull mare that was competitive at two turns on the grass in her best races. She may get a look on the grass later in the meet, but I think she can move forward at two turns on the dirt for Michael Matz. West Side Girl won twice at Oaklawn this winter before struggling with better fillies in her last two starts. She took a swing in the Grade 3 Fantasy at the beginning of April when she was beaten 9 lengths by Kentucky Oaks entrant, Pauline’s Pearl. She was 4^th last out at this level of competition, but against a saltier field at Oaklawn. On deeper tickets, Sense A Million (3) may be worth adding, as she has hit board in 9 starts, winning three of them, including one in the slop. She was very good at two turns two starts back when she ran a career best effort to beat a starter allowance group at Parx. She regressed a bit last out, when moving to this level and cutting back to 7 Furlongs. She comes back to two turns, which is a plus, but she’ll have to prove that she can run back to that big effort two back to beat this group.

Race 3: Top Pick: 3

This is the only race exclusive to Jersey Breds on the Opening Day card. Fillies and mares three and up are going 6 Furlongs in this state bred N1X allowance. These races are always tricky at the start of the meet as there are many New Jersey based barns that don’t run their horses much over the winter. That isn’t the case for Kent Sweezy, who was well represented in Florida this winter. Jersey Jewel (3) was with him at Tampa and worked there a few times, but hasn’t started since breaking her maiden back here in August in the slop. She’s worked twice since returning to the Garden State, and might get another sloppy track for her three year old debut. Jomar Torres was riding very well here last year, especially in the second half of the meet last season. He gets the call on the horse that has the best early speed in the group and might be able to put them away late. While other New Jersey breds might have had the winter off, Your Pal (7) was very comfortable in Philadelphia this winter, racing 11 times at Parx since the end of the Monmouth meet, and winning four of those starts. She was claimed three times this winter and has been racing in starter allowance company of late. She returns to Monmouth in hopes of taking home some of the inflated Jersey Bred allowance purses ($62,500 total purse money for this N1X allowance). She’s in good form for Susan Crowell, but she is 0-12 on this oval, finishing second twice and third twice. Alta Velocita (8) moves to the barn of Delaware based trainer, Andrew Simoff, after running in Florida for Antonio Sano last month. She has two starts this year at Gulfstream after improving at this level last year locally. She has had many chances at this level, but she may be the best closer in the field if Jersey Jewel folds up late.

Race 4: Top Pick: 1

This might be the toughest race to handicap on the card. This is a $5K claiming race for horses that haven’t won a race in 6 months or horses that have never won three times. What makes this race so complicated is that the 9 horses entered here made their last start at 8 different tracks, at a variety of class levels. I’m going to go three deep here, but I can’t fault anyone for trying to get as much coverage as possible in this spot, as I could probably start to build a case for many in here. I think the most likely winner is NYRA invader, Kosciusko (1). He’s a three time winner that has banked over $225K in his 26 race career. He was claimed at Aqueduct for $12,500 two starts back and drops here for $5K, while making his first start for Wayne Potts. I don’t love the drop in class, which is a little suspect, however, with the NYRA circuit moving to Belmont, there’s less opportunities for lower level claimers in New York, and those races are definitely deeper now than they were in the winter. The ship and drop is probably a move that gets him to the right level of competition. Two of his three career wins have been on wet tracks, so he’s one that might move up with the bad weather forecasted. Successful Zip (7) ships in from Parx after a dull effort in a 5 and ½ Furlong sprint. He had an outside draw in a full field that day, and he was chasing a hot pace, which is not the ideal set up for him. Prior to that effort, he was steadily improving since being claimed by William Hogan, and getting closer to his better form that was showing earlier in 2020. I think he can rebound in this spot with the change of scenery, as he’s been a winner on this track in the past. Sparty (8) is another horse that is looking to rebound after a dull effort. He misfired two back in a two turn race at Penn National where he was claimed by Miguel Penaloza. He tried starter allowance company at Parx next out, where he was definitely overmatched and outclassed. At this point in his career, this is probably the right level of competition for him, so I’m expecting a better effort this evening.

Race 5: The Jersey Derby: Top Pick: 8 (Turf or Dirt)

Growing up about 40 minutes from Cherry Hill, NJ, I always enjoyed the opportunity to watch this race live at Garden State Park. One of my earliest memorable decent hits came when Who Did It And Run ran the boys off their feet in the last edition of this race at Garden State in 1998. This race has been run at Monmouth since 1999, and I still always look forward to it. The most accomplished winner of the Jersey Derby since being moved upstate, was the 2006 winner, Presious Passion. After his victory here, he went one to be a two time winner of the Grade 1 United Nations Handicap and a runner up to Conduit in a thrilling edition of the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Turf.

This year’s edition features eight horses, plus a main track only entrant. On either surface, I’m looking forward to seeing Riptide Rock (8) this evening. He has been wintering at Oaklawn where turf is not an option for this son of Point of Entry. He won his debut at 6 Furlongs on the turf on a course with some give in it at Woodbine. He just missed in the slop at the N1X condition in February in Arkansas. He ran a bit of a clunker two back, before showing a better effort on a fast track on May 1^st. I think he could be a dangerous runner on the grass, but I think he’ll be just fine on the main track as well. If this race stays on the grass, It Can Be Done (7) is going to be a tough target to run down. He’s proven to be a much better horse on the lead, especially on the grass. He was a stakes winner in the Nownownow Stakes here last October at this distance. He struggled a bit in the Awad at Belmont in October on a slow and yielding turf course, but he didn’t run awful. I think he would have more dangerous if Castellano put him on the lead that day. He lost in a three horse photo last out in the Cutler Bay at Gulfstream, when beaten by Annex, who is scheduled to run in the Grade 2 Penn Mile tonight. I think Ferrer will be aggressive in sending him early, and I think he’ll be tough to catch late, especially if Indian Lake (4), who ran 13 days ago at Pimlico and is entered without a jockey, ends up scratching. I will also use It Can Be Done on the main track, as he was a maiden winner at 6 Furlongs here in August, but I prefer him on the turf. It’s A Gamble (1) was most recently second in the Woodhaven at Aqueduct last month, running a big race at 15-1 odds. It Can Be Done finished in front of him both times they faced off as two year olds, but his last effort looks like he may have closed the gap. His one effort on a softer course also came in the Awad last year, and his effort wasn’t bad. His sire English Channel, won the Breeders’ Cup Turf here on a very soft course back in 2007.

On the main track, Indian Lake, who may or may not be running, certainly has some sharp dirt efforts at Parx this year, winning in optional claiming/N1X company twice, once while in for the tag, and once while protected. He didn’t show the same strong early speed last out when running on the grass for the first time in the James Murphy on the Preakness undercard. He finished 4^th that day behind a nice Brad Cox horse, TD Dance. That race was his only off the board start in 13 career tries, so he’s never finished worse than third on the main track. Pickin’ Time (9) is the most accomplished runner in the field and the lone main track only entrant. He was the winner of the Grade 3 Nashua at Aqueduct back November, but he ran dull races in the Remsen and the Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream after that. Breen has given him some time off and is trying to chart a path to the Haskell for this three year old son of Stay Thirsty. He’s run well in three times on this track, however, I’m not certain that he is a true two turn horse. His Nashua win at this distance was at the one turn mile and he folded up in the slop in the Remsen when going two turns. He also leveled off a bit in the Sapling here in his first try at two turns. I’ll use him, but he’ll likely be a short price and I think there will be better value elsewhere.

Race 6: Top Pick: 1

My strongest opinion on the Friday night card comes in the nightcap, which is a $7,500-$6,500 N2L claiming contest at 1 Mile and 70 Yards on the main track. Maryland invader, Speechin N Teachin (1) ships in from Maryland for Claudio Gonzalez after two game efforts with higher priced claimers in Maryland. He was third two back at Pimlico with open $16K claimers and then was a decent second last time out with $10K N2L claimers when facing older horses for the first time. He has decent speed from the rail and as a son of Super Saver, I think he’ll appreciate the off track while going around two turns. I like the way he’s been progressing lately, and I think he’s very dangerous with this group tonight. I was hoping to get better than 3-1 on Village Preacher (5), but I think his last effort when breaking his maiden at Tampa was too good to go unnoticed. He closed a ton of ground to get up while circling 5 wide last out. That was his first two turn effort on the main track, so there’s reason to believe that he can do it again. However, his form has been spotty, so I’m not loving him at a shorter price, especially if he’s racing on a sloppy course for the first time.

Friday Pick 5 Play: $40.50 (If Race 5 is on turf)/$54 (if Race 5 is on Dirt)

Race 2: 4, 5, 6

Race 3: 3, 7, 8

Race 4: 1, 7, 8

Race 5: 1, 7, 8 (Turf) / 4, 7, 8, 9 (Dirt)

Race 6: 1