Monmouth Park Racing Preview – 6/25/21 – By Eric Solomon

Friday’s six race program is highlighted by the Goldwood Stakes for fillies and mares, sprinting on the turf. Three horses hit the line together in stakes company at Pimlico on the Black Eyed Susan undercard, and all three are back to compete in this race. Half of the six races on the program are carded for the turf, where the rails are all the way out to 36 feet. Jose Ferrer continues to lead the jockey standings with 17 winners at the meet, but Nik Juarez and Paco Lopez are closing the gap. After a strong week, Jose Delgado has moved to the front of the trainer standings, saddling 11 winners thus far.

Race 1: Top Pick: 8

New Jersey bred maiden special weight fillies and mares start the racing week in Oceanport, New Jersey on the grass. This is not the strongest field for this condition. I’ll take Tale Lights (8) on top, making her second start of the year. She tried the turf four times in 2020, and her best race by far was when she was able to set a slow pace on the front end. That scenario looks very possible today as there doesn’t appear to be much, if any, early speed signed on here. She made the early lead and held second when beaten by a better horse in the slop here last month. She’ll have to clear them from her outside post, so an aggressive ride from Ferrin Peterson will be helpful. Ageless Artist (6) has improved since coming to Joseph Mazza’s barn for the winter meet at Tampa. She’s been racing against open maiden claimers there, with many of those races coming against better fields than what she’s up against today. She was most recently third with $32K maiden claimers, and should benefit from getting Paco Lopez aboard. Ask Around (1) ran her best speed figure in her only career try on the turf, which shouldn’t come as a surprise. She’s sired by War Dancer, who is a son of War Front. That race came on this course against open maiden special weight company. If she can duplicate that effort with this group, she’ll likely be the winner. She is second off the layoff, but her last two dirt efforts have been pretty bad. Getting back on the turf may help her cause, but her price will determine how I play her today.

Race 2: Top Pick: 6

The Friday Pick-5 starts here, with an optional $16K claiming/$8K starter allowance race at 6 Furlongs. Four of the six entered here, faced off at this condition on 5/30 (Race 11) going 5 and ½ Furlongs in the slop. I think the wet track was not agreeable to High Five Cotton (6) who wasn’t bad that day, but didn’t have his best stuff. He was the beaten favorite, finishing 4^th, behind Bazoo (3), Sour Kicks (2), and Coach Adams (4) that day. He went off form toward the end of the Tampa meet, after a strong start this winter. He got back on track at Keeneland, winning his first race of 2021 there two back. He likes this track and Jose Delgado’s barn is red hot right now. I think he’ll be going off at odds higher than 7-5, which is what he was sent off at last time, so there might be some value on this 16 time winner. Sour Kicks has been improving for Skip Einhorn, running a strong second in the slop here last time. This four year old son of Haskell and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, Bayern, has six solid starts in a row after some dull efforts here in 2020. He’s moved up the class ladder, and keeps running well, so I like that he’s protected from being claimed here. Coach Adams was the narrow second choice in that same race last out, and ran a wide 3^rd, while chasing from the outside that day. That effort was his first start since being claimed by Hollendorfer two back at Oaklawn. Isaac Castillo rode High Five Cotton last out and is now riding him, while Ferrin Peterson, who won twice last year aboard High Five Cotton, reunites with that one.

Race 3: Top Pick: 13 (AE) / 6

They’re back on the grass here, with multi-conditioned $16K filly and mare claimers, going 1 Mile and 1/16. While there are some three year old fillies here, everyone entered in the body of the field qualifies for the N2L condition. There appears to be a good number of horses on the AE list that are live if they draw in. Musetta (13) would be my top pick if she drew in, and On A Tour (15) and Real Wild Solution (16) would also be worth using if they were able to draw into this race. (Note: Musetta and Real Wild Solution have entered in a race for Saturday where they have made the body of the field). Assuming that none of them draw in, Donya’s Magic (6) is your likely pacesetter, and she might be tough to run down at this level. Historically, horses sitting closer to the early pace have had an advantage when the rails are out at 36 feet. She was caught two and three back at Tampa against open $20K claimers, while fading to 4^th. She ran a better race four back, when she finished second. Even though those races were against straight three year old fillies, those fields were stronger than what’s she up against here. Toss her last when the race was washed off the turf here at this level and she fits nicely with this group. Dixieland Darling (8) looks to be the most serious closer in the field. She finished third two back when she was fighting Mejia early on in the race. Despite wasting some energy there, she still finished well to be 5^th with similar. She too, ran poorly in an off the turf race here last out and should be much tougher while getting back on the grass. Positive Power (4) has not been in the best form in 2021, however, two of those three races were on the main track and the other was a 7 Furlong turf sprint at Belmont with better horses. She ran some decent races in 2020 on the turf that would play very well at this level, as she is taking a significant drop in class.

Race 4: Top Pick: 1

Many professional maidens are going in this maiden $12,500-$10,500 claiming event. All signs point to Chispita (1) here coming from Gulfstream Park, making her first start since joining the Wayne Potts barn. Her damn, Chispiski, was a very successful Florida bred sprinter that won 12 of 28 races in her career, highlighted by the Grade 3 Chaposa Springs in 2002. Chispita has been sprinting on the grass in her last two with better fillies and mares. Prior to that, she showed promise in her first two dirt starts. She ships North and drops in class for a barn that has had a very successful first month at this meet. She just looks better than these today. On deeper tickets, the only other horse in here that feels logical would be Gone Dreaming (7). She has improved in her last three and will probably graduate from this level in the near future if she continues to trend in this direction. She was second against a soft field at the $10K maiden claiming level last month. The third place finisher of that race came back to beat another $10K maiden claiming field. She’s moving up slightly in class here, and looks to be the best of the rest.

Race 5: The Goldwood Stakes: Top Pick: 3

Fillies and mares sprint 5 Furlongs on the turf in the featured stakes of the evening. The top 3 finishers in the The Very One Stakes at Pimlico, all hitting the wire together, are back to compete here. I made Gotta Go Mo (3) my top pick, after finishing second in that wild finish last out. She post 12 that day and probably covered more ground than the other two in the photo. She is a well-bred, four year old filly that is improving with every start for John Kimmel. Having a rider like Paco Lopez in a race like this is never a bad thing. Caravel (1) has only seven career starts, but she’s never been off the board, winning five of those races. She showed a lot of guts winning the The Very One Stakes last out and she was in tight early with her inside draw, and then split horses through a narrow seam to secure the victory. Pablo Morales has been aboard for her two stakes wins on synthetic at Presque Isle and he gets the mount today on this promising daughter of Mizzen Mast. Miss Aurament (8) is looking to become the first multiple stakes winner of the meet, as she won the Politely Stakes here last month. That race was carded for the turf, but transferred to the main track that day. She’s been a useful turf sprinter, most recently winning the Lightning City Stakes at Tampa in February on the grass. Victory Kingdom (7) may have had the best trip of in the The Very One, when she ended up on the losing end of the three horse photo. She’s a game six year mare sired by Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, also being campaigned by Team Valor. I think the other three might have a slightly higher ceiling, but she’s another live runner in here.

Race 6: Top Pick: 8

The Friday nightcap is for New Jersey bred maiden special weight horses going 6 Furlongs. The 3-2 morning line choice is Pogi (3) who is definitely logical and worth putting on your tickets, however, I think there’s some value in using Hit Me I’m Lucky (8) here. They’re coming out of a common race on June 4^th where Pogi was 11 lengths in front of Hit Me I’m Lucky, so there is definitely improvements that will need to be made. However, Hit Me I’m Lucky was making his debut in that race, which was contested on a sloppy course. He sat off the early pace before making a wide move and leveling off while Pogi and the race winner, Lib’s Contento dueled to the wire. Rory Huston’s horses definitely improve in their second start, winning 43% of the time over the last two years (3-7). Having Jose Ferrer, who has ridden extremely well at this meet, back on board, certainly doesn’t hurt. Pogi made his first start of the year three weeks ago, and looked better than ever. However, his three biggest efforts have come on a wet course. The weather forecast for Monmouth for Friday is beautiful, so he should be running on a fast course. He’s been okay on fast surfaces, hitting the board both times, but his early speed has carried better when there’s moisture on the track. He’s improved enough to be very dangerous at this level, regardless of the track condition, however, I don’t see him as a single.

Pick-5 Ticket: $36.00 Ticket

Race 2: 2, 4, 6

Race 3: 4, 6, 8

Race 4: 1

Race 5: 1, 3, 7, 8

Race 6: 3, 8

Meet Stats: 32/123 (Top Pick Winners) – $228.80 / $1.86 ROI per $2 win bet