Nick Tammaro’s Aqueduct Analysis – Friday, November 19, 2021

AQUEDUCT – 11/19/21

RACE 1: 6-9-10-2

#6 SPICER ran a credible race on debut for trainer Chad Brown and figures to improve with some experience.  This barn has good numbers with 2nd time starters and there’s plenty of room for improvement.  This field certainly lacks a standout.

RACE 2: 3-7-6-2

It seems fair to say #3 ADARE is better than his rivals in this field as he goes 2nd off a layoff following a strong outing at Belmont.  He has good tactical speed and should be in an ideal stalking spot from the outset.  Unless #7 UNTREATED takes a major step forward, this guy is the one to beat.

RACE 3: 12-8-4-3

The barn change on #12 DREAMFUL is significant, as this filly exits a game 2nd place finish at Keeneland against similar foes.  The outside post is hardly ideal, but she has the speed to get clear and a heady pilot astride.  Look for her to be a major factor from the start.

RACE 4: 2-5-9-10

#7 NOBLE THOUGHT is interesting given his back dirt form, as he broke his maiden and cleared the N1X condition on dirt before being moved to the lawn.  He is now in the care of a top notch barn and should get a square pace to run at in the late stages.  There’s value to be had here as well.

RACE 5: 1-8-7-10-11

#1 RIVENDELL is interesting on the slight cutback in distance given how pace compromised she was last time out.  The move to 6 panels is no great worry given that there should be some pace in here.  She just needs to work out a trip from the rail, but you’ll get a big enough price to take the gamble.

RACE 6: 12-9-11-5

The pedigree of #12 BOLD JOURNEY makes him a major player, and the recent workout he posted signals his readiness.  He is a half to recent Empire Classic winner Americanrevolution and draws well on the outside of rivals.  Tab the tote action here, especially given how prepared he looks for this engagement.

RACE 7: 4-7-9-12

#4 QUALITY CONTROL is bred to go long and made a real move off the far turn and into the stretch of her debut at Laurel.  She is out of a dam who was a G2 winner on this circuit and there’s plenty of upside here.  Look for her to be more involved early on the stretchout in distance.

RACE 8: 9-11-7-3

#9 PAPA SMOOTH is the one to catch here and will greatly benefit from an aggressive ride.  He was involved in a very hot pace that completely collapsed last time out and held gamely to snag the fourth place spot.  If left alone on the front end here, he is a major threat go to the distance at a price.

RACE 9: 3-10-7-5

It was very hard to rally wide, or lose ground at all, on turf during the early part of the Belmont fall meet.  #3 PERJURY TRAP was squarely up against it in his last start, as he was wide the entire way before flattening out late.  He is a serious player here as a live price horse.

RACE 10: 3-10-7-5

#10 RAVING rallied well from off the pace on debut after breaking poorly.  She’s now in the care of Jimmy Jerkens for her 2nd outing, and should bring forth more professionalism this time around.  This is a particularly weak field that lacks any strength, so give this one extra consideration.

AQUEDUCT FALL STATS: 45-12-8-4             $114.80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Further reading

Cross Country Pick 5 5.28.2022

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