Nick Tammaro’s Aqueduct Analysis – Friday, March 12

AQUEDUCT – 3/12/2021

RACE 1: 6-7-5-1/1A

#6 JILL’S A HOT MESS takes the biggest class drop in racing and figures to be close to the pace while in light under Luis Cardenas.  That’s enough to give her the nod in a weak field.

RACE 2: 7-1/1A-4

#7 MADERA was claimed for 40k in December and now returns off a layoff for 25k.  That is not the greatest sign, but she has found a particularly weak 25k event and figures to be a major threat from the outset.

RACE 3: 3-1/1A-5

The pace scenario looks to work in the favor of #3 GIO D’ORO who set a red hot pace last time out before being collared late.  He starts for a surging barn and has a ton of back class.

RACE 4: 8-3-4

#8 THEATRICAL DANCER has never tried fast dirt in two prior tries on the main track.  She was on the rail last time out, which was not the place to be, so there’s reason to give her one more shot at a square price.

RACE 5: 5-6-1/1A/1X

#5 DUST DEVIL was hopelessly wide last time out on a surface where the rail was gold.  He ended up floundering late and will be ignored to an extent at the windows.  Expect him to be a late player.

RACE 6: 2-1-4-7

One of the best barns on this circuit off the claim is that of Rob Atras.  He took #2 AIR ATTACK for 20k and moves him up a notch in class.  Atras is 31% with dirt routers first off of claims ($2.30 ROI) over the last 5 years.

RACE 7: 1/1A-5-2/2B

#1 BREAKFASTATBONNIES was an impressive debut winner and looks to be training forwardly for her first start since that score.  She obviously faces much better today but still looks to have plenty of upside.

RACE 8: 5-3-6-1

#5 VIVE LA LIBERTY was wide and raced against the grain of the surface last time out.  She was the 2-1 favorite that day and has a legitimate excuse, so hop on board at a better price today.

AQUEDUCT STATS: 152-38-27-17           $355.40

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