AQUEDUCT ANALYSIS – 12/27/2024
RACE 1: 4-6-1-2
#4 CATANA ran a good race on debut in a rich MSW event at Churchill Downs and figures to improve with experience. She was bet down to 2-1 in her unveiling and made a strong late move following a poor break from the gate. Having more experience will help her overcome those issues and she’ll be a more finished product today.
RACE 2: 1-5-6-4
The strong recent form of #1 BETTA GO GO GO has been in makes him the one to beat as he returns to New York. His last trip to the big Apple led to a narrow miss on the weeds and his recent dirt efforts were good enough to win here. His speed and inside draw are no problem as Dylan Davis should have him in the mix from the start.
RACE 3: 6-5-2-1
#6 ELVIS HIMSELF is the one to catch off a narrow miss last time out here at the Big A. The outside draw will enable him to utilize his speed to get to a comfortable early advantage. This is his third start off a layoff to boot, and that is often a time when horses are in position to move forward.
RACE 4: 1-2-3-7
#1 JUSTHEART was inside attempting to rally last time out and came up empty late. She can improve here against a vastly weaker field than the one she faced last time out. The human connections here will help you get real value at the windows and her dirt races put her in range in this bunch.
RACE 5: 7-2-4-3
#7 SAUCY SIX is drawn well outside on the move down to the 25k level for unheralded connections. The field she exits was better than this one, and the wide trip worked against her that afternoon. Being back on a dry surface shouldn’t hurt her chances and subtle forward moves with low level claimers must always be heeded.
RACE 6: 8-3-7-2
No reason to jump in front of the barreling train that is the barn of Rick Dutrow, Jr. as #8 COMMERCE COMET enters off a win right off a claim. He figures to have the ability to move forward in this spot and should be moving well in the closing stages. Staying a little closer early would undoubtedly help his cause.
RACE 7: 8-5-1-3
#8 LADY MINE had a tough trip last time out when she was largely on the wrong part of the racetrack. This is a spot where she can rebound and the price is going to be far more appealing given how well backed she was at the windows last time out. The best Aqueduct performances of her career make her a major threat.
RACE 8: 11-1-8-6
#11 STERLING SILVER narrowly missed last time out in the Empire Distaff and now shortens up to a mile. This is a distance that suits this gal much better than the 9 furlong journey from last time. She has been very good when facing NY bred stakes company around one turn and figures to be tough to beat in this large field.
RACE 9: 1-11-6-3
#1 AKINMUSIRE goes 3rd off a layoff for trainer Rick Dutrow, Jr. and moves out of the MSW ranks. He is a late runner who is adding blinkers here and that should keep him more in the mix in the opening stages. The rail draw is not the most ideal but he will be a deserving favorite and likely winner.
