AQUEDUCT ANALYSIS – 12/14/2024
RACE 1: 4-5-1-8
#4 LA BANQUERA is dropping significantly in class after two dull efforts following a very strong debut. She is now in for a tag for the first time for a cold barn and there should be enough pace in here to set up her late run. The debut effort is beginning to look like a mirage, but this will be the best opportunity she’s had to produce anything close to that May effort.
RACE 2: 3-1A-4-5
#3 SUSPENDED CAMPAIGN returns off a break for an underrated small-time barn. When last seen for 16k this gal was slow into stride, as usual, but then was taken up in upper stretch before producing a late run. There isn’t enough pace in here, so jockey Lane Luzzi is going to have to keep her a bit closer early.
RACE 3: 4-6-2-7
#4 MASTER OF ARMS goes first off a claim after getting claimed for 40k last time out. He was wide much of the way in his last start on a day where you wanted to save ground. The class drop off a claim is never the best sign, but trainer Linda Rice knows how to spot her claimers for maximum success.
RACE 4: 9-6-1-7
This is the time for a price like #9 PERFECT FLIGHT with the principles in this field having massive knocks. This gelding comes out of a live race given the way the 1-2 finishers have performed since, and he was unable to cut into the margin late when those two dominated on the front end. There should be pace in here and the slight cutback will help his chances, as will the addition of blinkers.
RACE 5: 8-6-4-7
#8 DR. KRAFT was inside last time out in the Thunder Rumble division of the NYSS and spun his wheels late. He gets Lasix back on with the class relief and should be able to stalk the pace and pounce when ready. This is an opportunity to get a nice price on him as well and he’s been competitive enough at this level on multiple occasions previously.
RACE 6: 4-7-9-6
The worktab on #4 JULITA looks strong as he makes his first start for Dave Duggan. She is by 12% debut sire Honor A.P. and is out of a dam who scored twice. This is her third foal to race and Duggan is more than capable of having one ready on debut. Based on what we’ve seen of the experienced runners in here so far, she doesn’t have to be much to win this thing.
RACE 7: 7-1-9-5
#7 WINE RESPONSIBLY is an interesting price here as he goes first off a claim by a winless barn. There’s a great deal of speed signed up in here that should set the table and this guy was rounding into form before he was claimed. This class level seems realistic based on what we’ve seen of him so far.
RACE 8: 2-10-5-7
Don’t stand on the tracks when the Brad Cox Express comes rolling through and #2 SACROSANCT looks to get a third straight stakes win today. He is 3-3 and has been largely untested, including in a win in the Sleepy Hollow here on October 27. His ability to rate just off the pace is a massive weapon and makes him the likeliest winner even with #5 BOLD FORTUNE signed up.
RACE 9: 12-7-10-1
The outside draw is a good thing for #12 STONE SMUGGLER, who looks to get a second stakes win today. She was in range but came up wanting late in the Key Cents last time out, but this is a softer field top to bottom. The hot pace is no big issue, as Jose Lezcano can keep her just off of it ready to pounce late.
RACE 10: 4-3-6-2
The pace advantage #4 FIRST TRUMPET possesses is a major weapon. He is going to the lead here as he takes a sizable class drop for Eddie DeLauro and the runners he’s been facing are far tougher than what he meets today. Luis Rivera, Jr. should be able to get him to the front at once in here and that’s all he’ll need.
