AQUEDUCT ANALYSIS – 12/1/2024
RACE 1: 3-1-5
Simply seeking an alternative to #1 SHOP LIFTING seems like the right move here so #3 TRUTH AND BEAUTY gets the nod. She is by 17% debut sire Bolt d’Oro and is out of a dam who was stakes placed as a 2YO. She’s dropped one winner from as many to race and the worktab here looks solid.
RACE 2: 4-6-3
#4 SHADYSIDE showed real speed when victorious at 2nd asking for trainer John Kimmel, stalking the pace and pulling clear late. She has every right to improve facing winners and earned a Thorograph figure in her last that makes her the one to beat.
RACE 3: 3-2-6-7
The class drop on #3 FINAL DENILE is significant, as he was last seen against N1X foes for Christophe Clement. He figures to be towards the back set to make one run on the cutback in distance and his prior dirt races are undoubtedly good enough for him to get the nod as the one to beat today.
RACE 4: 8-4-6-2
#8 REFUAH faced a salty bunch of beaten claimers at Churchill Downs last time out and looks like an excellent fit for this NY bred event. He has tactical speed and should be stationed outside of the pace players before pouncing when ready. While his prior efforts against NY breds have all been good, it’s winning that has always been the issue for this son of Daredevil.
RACE 5: 8-6-3-4
It seems silly to step in the way of the Rick Dutrow Express, as #8 DREAMWORKIN looks to get a maiden win off a surface switch this afternoon. She was solid on debut against a tough field then followed it up with a positive effort on turf. This is the spot where she can put forth her best moving back to the main track for the circuit’s hottest trainer.
RACE 6: 8-10-2-7
#8 VAN VOLLENHOVEN is dangerous on a surface switch at second asking for trainer Dave Duggan. This barn is underrated to begin with, but also does very well with turf to dirt movers. The speed he showed in his unveiling makes him dangerous and today’s aggressive pilot should have him in the early mix.
RACE 7: 5-1-2-6
In a really difficult affair here a tepid look goes to #5 WILD IRIS, who was up in time to break her maiden last time out for Dave Duggan. This barn is 4 for its last 19 with dirt starters exiting maiden wins($2.07 ROI) and this gal should get some pace to run at late. Her speed figures from her last two are every bit fast enough to contend in this spot.
RACE 8: 2-3-1-8
The likelihood that #2 GOLDEN DEGREE wires this field is actually quite high. She is loose on paper, has been in very good form and her trainer picked up two more wins on Saturday afternoon. There’s an argument to be made that this gal is better than the field she faces today and she should have a massive edge from a pace perspective.
RACE 9: 2-5-11-8
#2 MAJULU switches surfaces and ran a credible race in her lone prior dirt try. That was enough to land here in a race with no standouts whatsoever. If she can get to the front, which seems likely given her speed and the inside draw, then there’s a reasonable chance she can take them all the way.
