AQUEDUCT ANALYSIS – 11/21/2024
RACE 1: 4-5-3-1
#4 KEEPTHEDREAMALIVE is a first timer by Into Mischief, whose progeny hit at a 16% clip as 2YOs. The dam here was a Grade I winner who banked over $1.1 million and her lone prior foal to race was a winner as a 2YO. The worktab is strong and Hall of Famer Bill Mott has long been at his best with debuting fillies.
RACE 2: 3-4-1-6
#3 YO DADDY is back on short rest just 11 days after a disappointing effort at 4-1 against a far tougher N1X field going a mile. He was inside much of the way that afternoon and the outside paths were best on that afternoon. The last time he went long led to one of his best efforts up at Saratoga and anything close to that would make this son of Yoshida very tough to handle.
RACE 3: 3-1-7-4
All signs point to #3 FIRST CLASS CAT being very tough to handle for Linda Rice and Flavien Prat this afternoon. She moves into open company off two strong efforts against NY bred rivals of late. This is her third start off a short break and she has the tactical speed to stay within range from the start. From a speed figure perspective she towers over these rivals.
RACE 4: 5-7-2-3
#5 BOYS CODE is a legitimate potential upsetter here as he drops in class out of a series of NY bred allowance races. He is a one-run closer who’ll need pace help, but the two favorites have major flaws on paper. The best races this gelding has run make him a contender and he’s in a winnable spot, even for these low percentage connections.
RACE 5: 6-10-1A-9
There’s no telling what was going through the mind of the rider on #6 FURRY FOX on debut. He took this filly wide the entire way before she flattened out late against a solid group of NY bred 2YOs. The blinkers going on for this red hot barn make her the one to beat, as she should be far more involved early under an aggressive pilot.
RACE 6: 5-6-4-2
#5 WILLFUL DESIRE is the kind of Linda Rice trainee you want to bet as she returns from a layoff following a bad performance in August. She has been given some time off and looks like a major pace threat this afternoon. The recent bullet workout signals her readiness and she has some back form that make her a major contender.
RACE 7: 6-5-2-7
While a dry surface would be preferable for #6 TRUE EMPRESS, she arrives in top form and should be in a good spot stalking the pace today. Her last race was solid, but she was aided with a stalking trip in a slow paced affair. The good recent form since the trainer switch is too significant to overlook and she’ll be a deserved short price.
RACE 8: 1-8-6-3
The last two efforts from #1 LCGOLUCKY have not been bad, and the latter of the pair came against considerably tougher competition. He’s a good fit in this weak affair and should be a square price thanks to the connections in play. The rail is not ideal, but how wet this surface will be should determine any apparent track profile.
