AQUEDUCT ANALYSIS – 01/01/2025
RACE 1: 4-5-2-1
While Finger Lakes shippers are often unable to stay competitive down here, #4 LIGHT THOUGHTS is interesting. She showed some early life on debut and now gets Lasix in a spot where she can get the lead right away. Should she get to the front and start dictating terms, she’ll be very dangerous from start to finish.
RACE 2: 6-2-5-4
The competition that #6 JANSSEN faced last out first time against winners was far better than what he meets here. He was a nice winner two back at 9 panels and looks to have what it takes to be effective at a mile. He can be forward as well in a race that’s hardly overloaded with pace. The outside draw is also deal.
RACE 3: 4-1-2-6
The dam side pedigree on #4 FREUD’S FANCY is all geared towards dirt. The surface switch will help her make amends for two dull turf tries prior, both of which came against better competition. There’s nothing in here that will keep her from a clear early advantage and that’s of great significance.
RACE 4: 4-5-7-1
#4 HAPPY HENRY is the one to beat at second asking after checking in 4th in a stronger than par MSW for older horses last time out. The runner-up came back to wallop a field in his next start at Gulfstream and earned a 97 BSF in doing so. The stats for trainer Chad Brown second time out in maiden races are strong to boot.
RACE 5: 4-5-6-3
#4 PLAY GOOD PAY GOOD faced better last time out at Churchill Downs. She is at her best as an off the pace type who’ll be in line to benefit today if things heat up on the front end. The price will be fair given the competitive nature of this field and one bad recent running line often leads the public other directions.
RACE 6: 1-5-6-3
The traffic issues that #1 ICE ROAD faced last time out were more than enough to keep him from a better finish. He was along the inside the entire way and an opening never came to fruition in crunch time that afternoon. The fact that he’s a true distance horse helps his cause in this soft bunch.
RACE 7: 4-1-8-2
The ability to sit off the pace makes #4 NILO’S ROSE the one to beat in this “featured” event on the program. She ran well on debut to #8 SHADYSIDE but came back to break her maiden easily against 8 overmatched rivals in late October. She returns now to face winners and should get plenty of pace to target in the closing stages.
RACE 8: 3-7-8-2
Why not try for a price here like #3 AH CA IRA? We have no idea whether this daughter of Maximum Security can run a step given that she blew the break on debut and wound up putting in a token bid in crunch time. This is an opportunity to improve for a barn that has generally done quite well with 2nd time starters.
