SARATOGA – 8/2/2025
By Nick Tammaro | @NTamm1215
SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS BROUGHT TO YOU BY @BUCCHEROSTUD | LEARN MORE AT http://IHSTALLIONS.com
RACE 1: 2-5-1-6
The debut effort of #2 TAGERMEEN was promising, as he was bet down to even money and chased the pace after a rough break. He wound up being overwhelmed by eventual winner Curtain Call and settled for second. The workout he posted on 7/21 was very strong, as he clearly moved better than the stakes winner Obliteration, who will go in Race 3 today.
RACE 2: 7-2-4-5
#7 ORBIT changes surfaces at second asking after debuting in a race taken off the turf. Trainer Mark Casse is a strong 22% with 2YOs moving to turf for the first time in the maiden ranks when they have experience ($2.36 ROI). The dam here was a turf winner and she’s kin to turf stakes winner Angel Terrace as well as international GI winner Order of St. George. The stretchout and speed he showed on debut is encouraging as he’ll likely be on the front end early.
RACE 3: 5-6-1
Call me stubborn, but there are knocks on the two favorites today, which brought me to #5 CAMIGOL. He broke his maiden handily at second asking against a group of overmatched Florida breds down at Gulfstream. Trainer Antonio Sano now ships him up for a spot where he can lay back and make one run. #1 EWING is very formidable off a smashing debut win, but trainer Mark Casse is 0 for his last 18 with 2YO second timers off maiden wins on debut. #6 OBLITERATION was an impressive winner of the Sanford, but he was handily out-worked by Race 1 contender Tagermeen on 7/21.
RACE 4: 2-5-10-9
#2 XY SPEED has amassed an excellent record largely in South Florida for trainer Mike Lerman. This is the first start this barn will have in NY over the last five years, and leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. gets the mount. He’s at his best when he can race with Lasix and his inside post will help him stalk and pounce this afternoon.
RACE 5: 1-2-4-7
When #1 METFARDEH worked with #9 ENDORSE on 7/18, this filly buried her in impressive fashion. She certainly looked worthy of the $2.3 million price tag in that drill, so expect big things on debut. The rail draw is hardly ideal, but this filly is by 16% debut sire Into Mischief and is out of a stakes winning dam. She’s kin to stakes winner Window Shopping, so there’s real pedigree power in play.
RACE 6: 8-3-7-2
The morning activity of #8 IMMACULATE MOON are enough to give her serious consideration today. She recently worked with smashing debut winner Man in Finance, who beat restricted maidens nicely in his unveiling. The outside draw and aggressive pilot in play for this daughter of McKinzie make her a major player at a square price.
RACE 7: 5-13-1-3
#5 DILGER returns off a break today and drops in class for trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. He has been very strong at his best and should be in stalk and pounce range early today. Irad Ortiz, Jr. has done very well with Joseph over the last couple of years at Saratoga (29%, $2.66 ROI). This guy should be an active participant in the pace today and his morning drills have been very sharp.
RACE 8: 5-3-4-10
There’s plenty to like about #5 WIN FOR THE MONEY, a Grade I winner of the 2024 Woodbine Mile who comes in on a 4-race losing streak. He has been forced into the pace too regularly in recent starts and needs to sit back more to make one run. If that occurs, his chances will greatly improve and the price in this spot is going to be plenty attractive. His best races make him a major player.
RACE 9: 5-2-6-7
Until de-throned, #5 TEST SCORE is the king of 3YO distance turf ranks. He was an impressive winner of the Belmont Derby last time out from just off the pace and should be forwardly placed again this afternoon. The interesting thing is that a couple of the Euro invaders, including #2 JUWELIER look to have real speed. That should ensure a solid tempo in this Grade I event on the Mellon Turf.
RACE 10: 3-6-8-4
The cutback in distance worked like a charm for #3 LOOK FORWARD the last time trainer Michael McCarthy did it on Kentucky Oaks day in the Eight Belles. This daughter of Bolt d’Oro did her part with a. smashing score from just off a robust pace. In fact, her last two stakes wins sprinting have both come after chasing strong paces and finishing with authority. Her price will come down off the 8-1 morning line, but she should still offer plenty of value at the windows.
RACE 11: 5-9-10-3
The entry of a rabbit will provide exactly what #5 SIERRA LEONE has needed in recent dirt routes – pace. He is a late runner who’s shown more tactical speed in recent starts, including a runner-up finish last out in the Stephen Foster. This race has been the focus of trainer Chad Brown’s campaign with this 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner who who has run well here at Saratoga, even if you wouldn’t know it from his 0-3 record.
RACE 12: 1-3-12-9
#1 TALES OF THE HEART from the rail is a major player. She was wide and well off a slow pace last out before finishing with interest for trainer Bill Mott. Any additional pace in here will help, and the projected frontrunners looks like lesser types who’ll capitulate early. That will open things up from this filly on the rail.
RACE 13: 10-2-9-7
#10 SAY YES TO DREAMS is a Euro invader for trainer Chad Brown, who has excelled with these types over the years. This gal has trained well since relocating to Brown’s barn and should be a tough customer in the lane. The addition of Lasix also helps her cause, as does the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr.
