Anthony Stabile is here and he and JK go over the Late Pick 5 for Opening Day. Join NYRA Bets today to take advantage of our $200 bonus offer when you use the promo code MONEY at NYRABets.com.
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Hello, and welcome to the hi Rebecca late pick five podcast. I’m your host, Peter Thomas foreign, a towel back with you from the Brooklyn bunker. So excited that it’s Belmont time again. And I’ve got two guests today to talk about this opening day, pick five, we will start with a regular co-host of this program.
You’ve seen him on NYRA telecasts. And you’ve heard him on this show. He is coming to you at the moment from Lexington, Kentucky, but he’ll be back in New York soon. I’m talking about the people’s champion, Jonathan kitchen. What’s up JK. What’s going on at PTFE. And I know you’re a snore on the snore as well.
I’m sitting next to another snore and it happens to be a little one and a half foot long, a Boston terrier pug mix. So if you hear something in the background, that sounds like a snoring. It’s not me. I’m not sleeping. I’m wide awake. It just happens to be the little, uh, the little lady next to me. You’ve been accused JK of sleeping through these shows before, but I was hoping not to make it that literal.
It sounds like you’ve got your excuse all planned. I like that. Joining us today, very excited to have on one of our, in the money network shows for the second time in a week, the charismatic racing analyst, you know him from his work at the horse racing radio network. You know him from his appearances on talking horses, you know him from his work behind the stick, in the aqueduct.
Announcer’s booth talking about our buddy, the big a Anthony Seville Anthony, what’s happening. Hey guys, I am, uh, I’m broadcasting and joining you guys from Winterfeld this morning, the game of Thrones references are going to come fast and furious. I have to ask how did you two discover your mutual love of the show?
Is this a Twitter thing? No, I think it was, I thought it was a Breeder’s cup. J K I, that we were hanging out at, uh, at golf house. Oh, that’s what it was. I think I remember that, like I asked you something and you had to, you had to go cause you were going to watch game of Thrones, something along those lines.
Well, I gave you with a line of something, but I think it was that I think it was Africa. We’re not going to get into your game of Thrones predictions here, Anthony. Cause they’re on our monster pod, Kentucky Derby preview, which will be up within minutes. By the time you’re listening to this, if it’s not up already, we’re going to make you go check that out.
For there, but we will get predictions about this late. Pick five at Belmont on Friday opening day. Before we get into it, though, I will ask one general question. What kind of feelings do you get? Anthony, as a long time, New York guy, big racing fan. When Belmont opening day rolls around, you know, it’s funny, Pete, I, uh, Peter, I.
Aqueduct was like a second home to me. I live a mile away. I live in a town called tower beach early one mile from aqueduct. Great pizza. Aqueduct has always been, yeah. Um, accurate. It’s always been like a second home, but my favorite respects Belmont park. So, and it was a little different leaving aqueduct the year because of all the race calls and everything.
And it’s even more so I never thought it could be more special, but it is more special to me now. Uh, but. Yeah. I mean, this is people talk about opening day baseball and you know, a lot of different things be in the start of spring. To me, this is like, all right, winter is over. We’ll leave an aqueduct.
We’re going to Belmont park and we’re going to be all on a Saratoga for the better part of the next six months. I love Belmont. I love sitting outside with my buddies, smoking cigars in between my gigs and just betting horses and shooting the breeze, talking horses. And this is like a, it’s literally one of my favorite days of the year each and every year.
I love opening day. You said winter is over. I thought winter was coming, but whatever I told you there’d be, be more than one folks. If you don’t watch the show, you’re going to be a little lost, but stick with us. And then later you can Google it and get all the, uh, get all the explanations I wanted to ask you.
If I wanted to ask you about your work responsibilities in general for the upcoming meet, but I want to pause first and get to, did you ever think guys like you and may have been going to these New York racetracks for so many years? Did you ever think you’d be getting paid to go to these places? No. Um, you know, like I put up a very long Facebook post about everything that went on at aqueduct, this meat, um, you, you, you want, I knew I wanted to be a part of the game.
I knew that I was allergic to five 30 in the morning and that it wasn’t going to be on the backside. Um, And then breeders’ cup 1989, uh, the pack day, uh, just, just the, the, the butcher job on easy dollar for the fourth time. Um, I was at the metal lands and I was. Well, you know, 12 people, cause most 12 year olds are supposed to cry when their favorite horse wins and loses.
And I was just, I was furious and my mom and dad turned to me and they said, you know, well, why don’t you think about becoming a writer or, you know, because there was no, there was no such thing as talking horses in 1989 and nobody did anything like, well, we, all these studies, you know, the Fox sports Saturday, the racist shows podcasts.
Nobody thought that if you tell me, you thought this was going to be going on, uh, you know, I’m an, I call you a bold face liar, but you know, it. So, so you turned to writing and from that day on, you know, I always wanted to be a race color installed and I knew writing would probably be a little bit of a easier way to get to the racetrack every day.
And, um, From that point, I was going to be a journalism major. And my Dean, Christine Halleran, I talked my way out of the cockamamie schedule. They gave me a St John’s my first semester. And she crossed all journalism and wrote communication. Arts is my new major. I said, why did you change my major? She said, because with that mouthpiece, we got to get you talking in front of a camera.
Okay. I’ll follow your lead deem our hour. And, uh, here we are. It was a very good call, a very good call to be sure. We, I want to do your whole life in times on another show on this show today, we’ve got a lot of races to cover in a short amount of time. So I’m going to leave the audience wanting more in terms of your backstory.
And I think we should just go ahead and dive, right, right in. And the first NYRA bets late pick five of the season starts with race five on Friday. And Anthony, as the guest, we’re going to start with you on this one. How are you going to kick off this first night bets late pick five of the season? You know, I think the first thing we need to keep in mind is, uh, that we may be getting some rain.
Overnight Thursday into Friday. I don’t know how much, um, depending on where you read a quarter of an inch, half, half an inch. Um, so just keep that in mind. Uh, you know, when you’re listening to these selections, obviously things can change with the weather. Avalina was real good in the slop. She came back, uh, that’s number eight and Reese five.
She came back and she got beat. Just ahead. She got herself into a little bit of a doodle on the front end and survived until the last three or four jumps. Got beat by a horse out of a barn that was going really good at the time. Uh, she’s outside now. There’s some other speed in here that excess capacity as a little gas.
Uh, she’s. Primo’s probably going to be the main speed, but I think Kendrick and Avalina can just post up outside from the cozy outside Saul and, uh, Work out a good trip pick Benny’s tribute would be the other one. I think she’s going to improve with a little more distance. She was a good first time out again.
She handled the wet track. No reason from believe she wouldn’t handle it again, or a dry track. She gets an extra eighth of a mile. You know, when the Rudy horses win first time out, they usually have a little. A little talent, a little substance to them. And this Philly who’s, you know, bread to go much six Romans really wasn’t supposed to be her game.
I think they have it. They have the right to, but I think, you know, it’s a chalky star. If you asked me, well, sometimes in a gimmick, like the pick five, you can still find plenty of equity. Even if you have a chalky start JK, how did you see this one? I think that, you know, understanding the condition book is something that I’ve been trying to get better at.
And one of the things I’ve picked up along the way, it, it racetracks everywhere across the country, as he started allowance races. Well, you know, horses have to do a certain thing to qualify. And in this situation they have to run for a tag of 50 or less. I love to see a horse who. Over excels in that situation where they ran for 50, where they became eligible for the, for the tag and the horse Avalina that, that Anthony mentioned at the start, uh, one by 13 when they ran for a tag in the slot.
So it’s almost like they kind of snuck her in to this spot. They got the, when they became eligible and now she’s going to just beat up on these starter allowance horses. I think she’s the most likely winner. She’s a horse that I would press up in the situation. Feels like this race has a possibility of kind of falling apart.
A lot of horses that are going to be stretching out and going from six to seven and a and six to seven with a little bit of speed. I thought she was the most likely winner. And than I thought excess capacity was the Avast. We said made a lot of sense. Uh, Chad Brown dropped the horse for 50 Steve being one of the sharpest horse men in the country, picked the horse up and then he gets Manny Franco.
If you’ve been following aqueduct this year, you don’t need an, uh, an introduction to Manny Franco. Those are the two that I need to get out of this spot. I feel like they’re the most likely. Uh, the two, uh, two horses of, of all of these let’s move on to Ray six. It is carded for a mile and a quarter on the grass.
As Anthony points out, there may be some rain. There are some MTOs in here. Jonathan, let’s keep it with you for your thought. And if you feel like throwing in a note about if they come off, you can, but you can also just make it clear that you’re giving turf only thoughts. Yeah. So here’s my, my MTO thoughts, right?
I mean, obviously soft differs Dermot magnet. We mentioned Dermot on our first, uh, NYRA vets podcast, talking a little bit about his history working under Todd. Pletcher working under Chad Brown, obviously being in those barns, you pick up some pretty good habits. Uh, this is the second time I can remember that.
I think the last time you mentioned magnet. He was entering Lecky NTO, uh, last week and the horse actually got beat in that spot, stretching out. I think that he’ll be tough with soft, a soft that gets in for type. Obviously we like those when the races come off the grass, no kickback for those turf horses.
So I think he’ll be tough if they come off. Um, the horses that if it stays on that I thought were interesting where it just kind of a little bit of a spread race, uh, authority down on the inside for Christophe making the first start. Obviously you have to respect those connections going a mile and a quarter.
Um, but the horse that I was the most interested in was a Sphera for, for Belmont, um, rent was three to one that day at Tampa. So it took some money. They obviously thought the horse had some ability Connie even run in that race now gets more ground for, uh, for an Irish bred horses. Uh, whose whose mother obviously, uh, enjoyed longer distances.
I think this distance could fit this horse perfectly. Obviously you can’t ignore, uh, albatross, these sorts of nonsensical. And then also, I think Chad has one in here. Uh, and when Chad has one, you better pay attention, Anthony, how do you see it? Yeah, Jonathan brings up a good point about Saphira. She, she was actually even shorter than that.
She was two to one, most of the way, uh, that day on April 3rd of Tampa. And then the winter took a big punch down. I want to say the winter was somewhere in the eight to five range when all was said and done, uh, uh, Del Corp and on Ocala court horse who got the money. She didn’t have to clean this trip that day.
Uh, I didn’t love the trip. I didn’t love the ride. It goes to one of Mott’s main men, uh, in Jr. Alvarado, like Jonathan said as well. This is a spread race for me. You got to use Krzysztof source. I thought from the inside, she’s already gone to mile and a quarter twice. Um, and we haven’t seen her for a while and this isn’t one of Khrushchev’s right.
Best angles of best moves. Normally they need a race when they come into the country. But I do like the fact that she’s getting the Lasix and Joel Rosario for the first time. She’ll probably reluctantly be my top pick in here. Um, Sephora gotta be used. More likely than not as the Chad Brown horse. I’m not really a fan of this village burned a lot of money at three to five.
When all the town got loose on a lead last time I was able to kind of gave her a great ride. Just stealing on the front end. I want to use a few one here. There’s a horse in here, the free Amarone. Um, It’s an interesting one from Mike Mika ran the horse open state bridge remorse and rental was opened down in Florida.
A couple of times, ran into Kamia park, who might be Chad Brown’s second best three year old filly behind newspaper of record. Uh, didn’t do much running next time. They ended drinkers last time, ran the horse against Steve pres through the outside post 11 out of the, um, Going a mile at aqueduct. Now she stretches out to a mile and a quarter.
He makes a lot of cheese to Kendrick Carmouche. I want to mess around with this. I’m a Roni and, you know, especially if it’s on the turf, she might be 15 to 20 to one. I might try it again. Good hunch play for levers of Italian wine and her, her damn obviously was, uh, was the, the world famous megahertz trained by Bobby Frankel out on the West coast.
She hasn’t done all that. She’s produced much John, but, uh, she’s going to be 20 to one in a field. That’s an absolute, you know, this is a kind of a puzzle or a bowl. Bell’s had a dozen chances, you know, there’s, there’s a lot of horses in here that, uh, that have obvious holes. And these are the races that you can fish, especially if you think it’s going to start chalky, you want to try and get a horse.
Like I’m a runner. All right. Let’s look at this seventh race. We are back on the dirt in an allowance, race going six and a half short ish field here, Anthony, how are you going to attack it? You can knock me over with a sneeze of the four. Ms. And max are the five breaker. If you don’t win. Um, if, if one of them go down, I’m going down with them.
Uh, you know, good point earlier from Jonathan about playing that starter allowance. So many of these theater allowance races now, and playing that game that you don’t, it’s all a horse, like really over towards a great example around the horse of 50, a couple of times, get her eligible for those starter races when the starter condition, well now what do you do with it?
You’ll be a runner for the tag, be a runner and the other then. So Steve S was an officer runner and the other, then he runs into a horse and Ms. And max was a state bread who runs through her state brick conditions, still eligible for the open conditions. And she’s never missed a board. And Oh, by the way, the one time she ran open, she got beat three lengths.
Two lengths to dream Pauline. And then you look at break curfew who was rumored to be a nice one from Chad. First time she wins, runs around the golden rod a month later, going through turns caught the sloppy track. No good comes back off a three month break runs. Okay. On a fast pace. Well, you know what?
Now she’s got the Reece under a belt from two months ago. She comes back, you know, I think Harlem is in max go. And the other ones that second, and they have kind of a run of the race. Whoever made a better price win is how I looked at it. J K, how are you going to approach this? I’m going to guess looking at the way, this pace projects out that you’re going to be with Anthony about the four and the five, but I’ve seen you in this instance and other times take a strong preference of one of these types over the other.
What’s it going to be this time? Yeah. I mean, those two are the, are the most likely winners ones. I think we’ll get across one of the things we’ll try to give you guys on the NYRA bets, uh, late pick five players podcast is we’ll try to highlight better ways to play the wagers. Um, and, and so I don’t see a world in which you can toss one of these, unless you have a strong opinion, I’m going to use both of them.
But the one thing that I’m going to do that makes me feel a little bit better, not feel so dirty, helped me sleep at night is I’m going to make two different tickets. I’m going to have one ticket with Ms and mass. Where I’ll have a $2, $3, $4, $5 pick five, and then I’ll have another ticket with break curfew.
Who’s my second choice in here for a 50 cents for a dollar, for $2. Essentially. I want to have more on one combination than the other. Anthony made a point that I try to avoid, which is rooting for the bigger price I want to root for the one that I think. Has the best chance of winning in the only way that I can avoid that, that conundrum that we always find ourselves in, which is rooting for the longer prices is to put more money on the horse that you think is going to win.
Regardless if they’re the favorite or not. I’m going to put more money on Ms and mast. Uh, you mizzenmast excuse me. And then a break curfew will be my second. That is one of those names that’s just designed to make a racing analyst, say it incorrectly. And max, everybody wants you to just want to go with the sire, but anyway, let’s talk about the affirm success.
The featured race on opening day at Belmont J K, what is your view here? This race feels like they’re going to absolutely fly. Um, the horse that kind of got my attention the most was the four Pat on the back, who’s cutting back, ran a mile on eight to the empire classic won that race ran well in the cigar mile.
Well enough in the cigar mile, the cut back to six. It’s a big cutback, but I think he’s going to have enough pace to close into. So a Pat on the back will be my top pick. And then I, I thought that, uh, I wanted to get into Tribeca. I was a little bit concerned about the trainer change. I don’t normally like off of Rudy Rodriguez, but the horse has a little bit of finish.
Has the outside draw could improve here. Uh, Kendrick obviously is, uh, is the type of rider. That if you have a horse that you need to finish, he’ll typically have the horse close enough to the pace where he doesn’t get too far back. Um, so those are the two that kinda got my attention, and this is a wide open race.
There’s a million horse that can win here. This is also one of those opportunities where the speed of the speed can get you where it looks like it has the potential of falling apart, but then the horse with the most speed ends up winning for me, that would be, I love Lulu, uh, for Jason, uh, service. And obviously those.
Those sprinters seem to find a way to keep running. And I would, I would assume that if one of them is going to keep running, it’ll be this one, Anthony, who’s going to be on your tickets here. Yeah. You know, I love Lulu moves up from me, especially if it comes up wet. I mean, he’s in, and he’s been fine on his ride track, especially of late he’s only 800,000 by just being a wet Trek specialist.
Unless your name is exaggerator. I love Lulu. Like Jonathan said, a lot of speed Bavaro from the inside draw. And I know two of the last three, they’ve tried to get a little cutesy. There’s no cutesy from the inside drop of aro has to go try Becca. He’s probably not fast enough, um, to keep up with Bavaro at his top speed.
And I love Lulu, but man, I mean, I think he’s kind of shown that. Yeah, he’s just a one he’s one run he’s he’s on the front end and that’s it. Uh, so it’s almost like, uh, before Rocky, Apollo and Rocky to get ready for world war three on the front end, that’s the case. You have to respect Pat on the back, but I’m going to give Syndergaard a chance in here.
And I don’t want to narrowly say this, but I actually liked the right of change to Jr. Alvarado from John Velasquez. God helped me for saying these things. Um, yeah. With all the pace. I think he’s the first one to come calling. And I think the one thing Jr really does best is he gets these horses to relax.
I don’t know what happened last time, because he was relaxing. Just fine for regive from just off the pace. Last time he was keyed up, Johnny was on the scene with Skyla scramjet in the Tom fool. He fell apart weight. But now he’s going to be able to get back to an outside stalking trip with some speed in here, Pat, on the back’s a little more accomplished at this point.
I don’t think anybody thought we’d be saying that in their five-year-old years, that you’d want Pat on the back over Syndergaard, but here we are a Pat on the backs of the abuse, shorter price and Syndergaard. Um, I think at the three quarters I want send the guard there. The two for me, you got to use, I love looms.
One. The only thing that bothers me a little bit by, I love Lulu Jason service. Hasn’t been going as strong in New York as he was the last six months. So that kind of bothers me a little bit. Um, you know, maybe your minds on maximum security and getting, uh, getting those roses in a week and a half. I don’t know.
Um, But I’m going to try to in the garden, Pat, on the Pat on the back, lots of great stuff to unpack there, Anthony, and I just want to highlight the way that you use the rider switch to sort of. Affect how you’re designing the race in your head. That’s the type of jockey analysis that I really love to hear.
It’s not that jockey EA is necessarily better than jockey B. In fact, jockey B may be better than jockey, but maybe just maybe jockey suits this horse in this spot today. I just appreciate your pointing that one out. Enjoyed that very much. Let’s move on to the nightcap. We’ve got New York breads on the grass going seven furlongs again, guys, feel free to either identify your thoughts as turf only, or a turf or dirt here, just in case that weather comes, we’re going to be optimists, but just in case Anthony let’s have you close out this NYRA bets late, pick five with a thought on this one.
I’m using the two, 10, 11, and 12 on the turf. Uh, the two obvious sources are chiclet stream and, uh, drying the Chan, the two Chad Browns, one’s returning from a seven month layoff. The other one’s returning from a nine month layoff. Um, uh, I’m going to put the 12 Heineken on top. This force, uh, broke the maiden first time out as two year old, came back and ran into Bolton landing.
We haven’t seen her for the long time. Uh, Jasmine Jose Loscano. They won that when Chad won his first rediscovery, I was able to scan on Maram 10 years ago. And there was a little bit of loamy action between the two, but they’ve been hooking back up. I think he’s written five or six horses for him. One word about half of them so far at aqueduct.
Uh, so he’s the one. She’s the one for me. I’ll use Chiclets stream. The interesting horses, I think. I think our in toxicologist first time turf from Michelle Nevin, from the 10 hall and passport to victory, uh, she’s getting back to a turf sprint for the first time in over a year for Jeremiah and Engelhart, whose first inclination, every claim this was for 16,000 was to run the Wars on the turf that ran the Wars on the turf.
Right thing. They stretch the horse out, the stretch out. Didn’t do any good. I just don’t think she wants to go long. And then a bunch of sprint races at finger lakes and aqueduct on the dirt in which she did nothing but her money. Another one of these remarkable Jimmy re yo claims, but Maya’s first inclination was the runner on the turf when he claimed her.
And now she’s getting back to that surface. She’s the kind of where she’s going to be a middling. Price in here. Uh, I think she’s a sneaky kind of horse on the dirt. She obviously has to be used. I think you got to use quest deck of the race comes off, made in beauty is getting a huge drop in class. And, uh, the top pick for me would be with oddly princess.
So I think I was able to kinda, I was winning this race tear for Derek J JK. How are you going to close this one out? Yeah, this is a tough one. You know, we, we talk about time for me and the pace projector and going seven, they projected Questex is going to be loose. Um, I I’ve been playing around a little bit with stats, race lens, and we talked about that on the other show.
One of the things that I put in one of the biggest mysteries in the world to me, uh, is sometimes turf sprints can get a little bit tricky because of the change in distance, California. We see it when they go from five to six and a half from Del Mar in San Anita. We also see it in New York with Saratoga at five and a half.
And then we have the six and the seven at Belmont. I think sometimes it can be a little bit misleading. One of the things that I found out in doing some research, which is a little bit shocking, is that the horses that are projected to be on the lead. That was when we went six and their previous star.
Now they’re going seven. They only win 14% of the time and horses projected on the lead and North America winning 14% of the time is a negative stat in my opinion. So Questex one of those that feels like she’s going to be loose, but for a rider, who’s not a top name writer. I’m a little bit scared that, that, that this horse is going to invite the closers into the race, not going to open up enough to take advantage of that side of that, that, uh, that lead in that, that pace advantage.
It is going to get mowed down late. Um, I agree both Chad’s make a ton of sense. The one that got my attention was, um, trying to change. How do you say an Anthony drunk? I don’t know. I’ll I’ll bike rest to Larry on Friday. I, I, I don’t know if it’s, if it’s trying to channel, can I have no idea? I like Chan let’s go with dry fed and both ways.
That’s the best way to do it. This horse, this horse was one of those typical horses who has the very impressive two year old races. And now is turning three. It’s the biggest jump I think you can see in growth in a horse from two to three. And if this horse improves just the 12 points that we, you know, tend to 12 to 15 points that you could expect from a two-year-old a three-year-old is going to be extremely tough, extremely difficult in this spot.
Both CHADS make a bunch of sense to me. And then, uh, Ailish uh, the horse for a TD, a bride who I thought was interesting. This horse is a horse that has, you know, some, some, uh, PPS you’ll see a very good late patient. And what I’ve found is that those are the horses that win the seven Furlong, um, turf sprint.
It seems very intuitive and obvious, but the horses that, that have the best finish. Typically do well in those races, they’re usually never too far back and they can get into the mix. So I think this one is one that I’ll definitely use that Anthony didn’t mention all the rest that he mentioned, make a ton of sense to me.
Uh, but the two CHADS and this, uh, Ailish is the, uh, the two of the three horses that I’m excited about using. I’m going to go ahead and fade quest deck and thinking that they’re not going to get the ride that you need. Are you sure that Ailish, isn’t some weird game of Thrones hunch play cause you miss Lord Bayless.
I do not miss Lord Bayless. Although there has to be a horse named little finger, right? I’ll tell you this. I don’t know about little things about the last, uh, it’s chaos. And as you guys both know, chaos is in the pit, Anthony, before we get out of here, I just want you to give people the chance, uh, to know where they can get more of you on social media.
And of course your responsibilities throughout this Belmont meet. HR and, uh, on three to six on Wednesdays, three to seven on Thursdays and Fridays, you can check horse racing, radio.net for the programming and the westerns. We actually have the Nairobi bets, a weekend stakes preview, Friday nights from six to seven.
Uh, and then for now we’re of course going to be doing some of the Fox shows at some point with Jonathan, uh, and the crew, my man, Andy Serling, who I’m with on nearly, um, I’m there almost every day. On almost daily basis, we’re talking horses. And if we kick off at 12, 10, um, most days, one 30 posts, we go, we go on air at 12, 10.
So I mean, and the, uh, have a real lot of, a whole lot of fun with talking to great rapport. You’ll be hard pressed to find two sharper handicappers than those two. We’ve done what we can do in terms of this late pick five. I want to thank Anthony steel. I want to thank Jonathan kitchen. We encourage you all to get involved on Saturdays late, pick five and throughout the weekend, hopefully it looks like the Saturday.
Weather’s going to take a positive turn. They’ve got this beer festival out there at Belmont. I’m a. I’m sort of on the also eligible list right now. I’ve got a few things cooking, but I definitely want to get out there for at least a few hours. I agree with Anthony, one of the great Harbinger’s of spring and the good times to come is the opening of Belmont park.
I am going to just thank the audience. I thank you guys already. I’ll thank the audience for listening. That’s important. We got to get that in there. I’ll say this podcast was a production of in the money media and thank drew Kourtney for his being the business manager and all the stuff he does, but I’m going to dispense with the usual salutation.
At the end. And I’m going to give that honor this time, this time only to our guest Anthony steel. What is dead, may never die.
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