This is one of the bigger days of racing in Arkansas, as two major preps for the Derby and the Oaks highlight this expanded twelve race program. Secret Oath looks to continue to run huge efforts when she takes on five rivals in the Grade 3 Honeybee, which goes off as Race 5. Newgrange is back in town for Bob Baffert to try to take down another large pot in the Grade 2 Rebel, which is Race 11. With the 12 race card, there’s an extra Pick-5 (Starting in Race 5) and Pick-4 (Starting in Race 6) in the middle of the card. Like last weekend, Florent Geroux and Joel Rosario are out of town, riding Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon in the Saudi Cup today. John Velazquez is back in town again, getting the call on Yuugiri in the Honeybee and Newgrange in the Rebel, among live mounts. The first post is scheduled for 12:10 CT/1:10 ET.
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 5 | 4,5 | DBL, PK5 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 1,10 | 2,4 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | DBL, PK3 |
| 4 | 12 | 1,11,12 | 4,9 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 6 | 3 | 3,8,10 | 4 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 7 | 2 | 2 | 5,7 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 8 | 8 | 2,8 | 10 | 9 | DBL, PK3, PK5 |
| 9 | 1 | 1,2,9 | DBL. PK3, PK4 | ||
| 10 | 13 | 8,13 | 11 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 11 | 2 | 2 | 8,9,10 | 6,11 | DBL |
| 12 | 4 | 4,8,11 | 3,7 |
Race 1:
The day starts with a maiden special weight race for three year old fillies at six furlongs. There were two divisions of a race at this same condition on 1/23, and Threave’s Company (#3) Little Mombo (#4) and Heartyconstitution (#5) are coming out of the heat that was much faster than the race that Firewolves (#8) was in. Firewolves turned in a dull effort as the 9-10 favorite in the slower heat. I’m not sold on her after that dull performance last time. I think Heartyconstitution is the one to beat in her second career start. She broke from the rail with a big field, and was able to hang in there while under pressure the entire race. She faced a very nice Asmussen filly in Hot and Sultry that day, who had a race under her belt and was just better on that day. I think she can turn the tables on Little Mombo, who was a solid second in that same race, one and a half lengths in front of Heartyconstitution that afternoon. She took a big step forward in her second career try. These are the two that should decide the opener.
Race 2:
Open $12,500 claimers go 1 mile and 1/16 here. On the outside, Indian Gulch (#10) invades from Turfway Park after being claimed out of a similar race in December, where he was moving well late to get up for 4th in his first start on a synthetic surface. Thomas Van Berg claimed him that day and brings him back to the main track, where he’s won all twelve of his career victories. He’s run well wherever he winds up, including two wins in six starts on this oval throughout his 43 race career. He’s an adaptable type that knows how to win races. First Line (#1) is another one that was recently claimed, taken for $20K out of his last start. I don’t love the claim and drop move, but a win and claim is still profitable. He didn’t have the best beginning last out, which kept him from running his race. Hollendorfer has him working well over this oval and he draws the rail, so I’m expecting him to return to some of his better form here. If we see the version of him that was running well in New York this spring or in Kentucky this fall, he’ll be the winner. River Cactus (#2) was most recently 7th in mud here when facing a deeper and tougher field in an optional claiming/starter allowance race last month. He’s been primarily based in Illinois, running in optional claiming/allowance races, usually for a $20K tag. He’s only faced open claimers once in his 52 race career, which is a bit unusual. He’s run for the same connections for all 52 starts as well, earning over $229K during that span. He’s been a productive eight year old for this barn and has done most of his career damage on the main track. Moliere (#4) is the morning line favorite that I’d cover with on the multi-race exotics, but maybe try to beat in the vertical wagers. He was claimed by Diordoro three starts back for $30K, but he hasn’t shown up in his last two starts for his new connections. He takes a steep drop in class, which may be the remedy, but it’s fair to ask the question if he’s losing a step at this point in his career.
Race 3:
Five of the eight runners for a race at this condition back on December 19th, are back for another shot.They’re joined by a pair of recent maiden breakers and longshot that looks in over her head here. While I’m not crazy about the rail draw, I’m still going with Icy Stare Down (#1) here. I picked her to win the Dixie Belle Stakes last week, but she opted out of that race, which came up very salty, in favor of this spot. Cox tried to get her in an allowance race in January, but that was canceled due to weather. This daughter of Frosted was a $425K purchase at the OBS April Sale last year, and she looked the part on the track, beating a good field of maiden special weight sprinters on this course back in December. Hot and Sultry ran a big race to break her maiden in her next start and Peace Peddler (#4) who finished third that day, tries her again after breaking her maiden in her most recent effort. Much like there was in the 12/19 optional claiming/allowance race, there is a lot of early speed signed on in this spot, and she should be able to sit off the pacesetters and make a run at them late. I’m willing to draw a line through the last effort from Marr Time (#3) after acting up before the race and throwing in the towel early as the heavy favorite when facing winners for the first time. She was foaled by one of the best broodmares of this generation, the late Leslie’s Lady. She also foaled Into Mischief, Beholder, and Mendelssohn, so this filly is about as blue-blooded as they come. She won on debut at Keeneland and has been very sharp in the AM over the last two months for Cox. Peace Peddler is likely to be a part of the early pace battle here, but she has more upside than a lot of the fillies that will likely be pressing her. She was the winner of the slower of two maiden special weight races that I referenced in Race 1. An improved effort from Firewolves in that race could possibly flatter her here. I’ll cover with her on deeper tickets, as she’s going to have survive another contested pace, while moving up in class.
Race 4:
There’s the potential for these early sequences to be very chalky, so I’m going to try to find some value in this $30K maiden claimer restricted to Arkansas breds. Macho Ronnie (#12) gets at the outside gate for his debut for Al Cates. He appears to have missed a few months of training after preparing for his debut at Louisiana Downs this fall. He returned to the work tab last month with three fairly sharp drills over the local oval. First time starters have done well in these races this season, and he looks like he has the best chance of the ones that are starting for the first time. Northern Woods (#11) can’t be as bad as his debut, where he was claimed at this level by Ron Moquett. He was away slow, and tried to move up before fading out of the picture that day. Moquett, who has good numbers first off the claim, worked him last week, which looks like a reasonable drill for his second try. Peace Dog (#1) drops in class after a decent try with state bred maiden allowance runners two weeks ago. He was wide that day, and now draws the rail, which isn’t a great deal either. If he can run back to his last effort, he’ll be tough here. On deeper tickets, the morning line favorite Allo Enry (#4) keeps getting close, but hasn’t connected yet. Perhaps the rider switch to Santana will help. I don’t love him as the favorite, but I’d cover my bases with him in a wide open race. The same could be said for J’s Little Man (#9) who finished right behind Peace Dog last time out. He’s had ten starts, over three seasons, running exclusively on this oval. His last was his best race, so we’ll see if he can build off that effort in his third race of this current form cycle.
Race 5: The $300K G3 Honeybee Stakes:
50 points is on the line toward entry in the Kentucky Oaks in this contest for three year old fillies. Secret Oath (#3) looks like she’s just too good for these. She faced Optionality (#1) in the Martha Washington Stakes last month, and in that race, Optionality was clearly the lone speed. She was able to set an easy pace and appeared to have a significant tactical advantage over Secret Oath. However, Secret Oath ranged up three wide and blew by the front runners. She had no problem running without Lasix, which was a valid question that she had to answer in her last start. Today, she appears to have more of a tactical advantage over her rivals as Optionality should have company on the front end with Yuugiri (#2), Ice Orchid (#4), and Free Like a Girl (#5) signed on to this field. She should handle her business again here, and if she’s as impressive in this race as she has been in her last two, I think she deserves consideration for the Arkansas Derby against the boys. Of the other trio, I’d give a look to the Louisiana bred, Free Like a Girl. She’s been dominant in two turn races against state bred stakes company. This is a big step up in class, but she’s earned the opportunity to compete in this spot. She’d be my backup on a few of the deepest tickets.
Race 6:
There’s a full field signed on for this time restricted $12,500 claiming race. Secretary at War (#3) rebounded nicely with starter allowance company last out after coming up short in a slower $10K claimer two back. He made a strong run, but was outdueled late by Tappin Fora Dance, who ran very well that day. He wheels back in two weeks, while facing a softer group while running for a tag that is more than what he was claimed for two starts ago. He’s been right there in his last three starts, keeping him in better form than the majority of his rivals today. Lonely Private (#8) was claimed by Karl Broberg, who is coming off a monster week last week here. The horse has not been the best version of himself in his last several starts, but perhaps the barn change can help him return to the better form that we saw from him in previous seasons. Cristian Torres gets the call, as David Cabrera is not named to ride any horses this afternoon. Awesome Saturday (#10) is the lukewarm morning line favorite, making his first start since December and dropping in class. Diodoro claimed him for $25K at Churchill three starts back. He ran second in his last two starts with better. He missed a little bit of time and returns at a lower level, which is a bit of a concern. However, this move is not unusual for these connections. On deeper tickets, American Joey (#4) has run well enough in his last two starts with starter allowance company over this track. He might benefit from a little rain, which is a possibility today. He’s likely better suited for underneath, but he wouldn’t be the worst longshot to throw on a multi-race ticket if your budget allows.
Race 7:
There’s a big scratch in this race, as the morning line favorite, McLaren Vale (#6) did not make the trip from Southern California. I like Call Me Jamal (#2) quite a bit in this race. With the defection, the morning line odds will shift, so 15-1 simply won’t be an option. However, I thought his effort in the Southwest was better than it looks on paper. He had a miserable draw and was wide every step of the way. He ran an even race, never quitting and finishing in the middle of the pack. Other than the stretch out sprinter, Sky and Sand (#5), there’s really not a lot of speed signed on, so I think he could run a race similar to his maiden breaking effort two starts back. Sky and Sand will likely go to post as the favorite, but he’s stretching out for the first time after a strong victory at six furlongs with maiden special weight company last month. He had a little issue at the break, but he was able to overcome that, sitting behind the early leaders and pulling away as a much the best winner. I think he’s better when he’s tracking the leaders, so I do expect Call Me Jamal to dictate the terms on the front end. Tyler Gaffalione is in to ride today and he’s on many of the Asmussen runners throughout the program. Ignitis (#7) misfired in the Southwest after a respectable third place finish in the Smarty Jones. Lasix and blinkers are both added in hopes of a rebound this afternoon. He’ll likely be able to sit closer to the early pace today in this smaller field.
Race 8:
The final Pick-5 of the afternoon starts with a maiden special weight for three year olds going 1 mile and 1/16. This isn’t the deepest group so the shorter prices are likely going to be tough. I’m going to give another shot to Life on the Nile (#8) after giving a me a brief thrill at 30-1 last out. Ethereal Road, who goes later on in the Rebel, rallied from way back to dominate that race. He ran well in his first try around two turns. He’s beautifully bred to get the distance, sired by Pioneerof the Nile out of Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Life is Sweet. He continues to get better and should have another forward move in his second time routing. Quick to Blame (#2) is the logical favorite for Brad Cox. He finished second in that same race, taking the lead on the turn, but getting passed easily by the winner. He’s hit the board in all three tries and has a definite post advantage over my pick. It may be his day, so he’ll be on all of my multi-race tickets, but he’ll be a short price. Rider’s Special (#10) is one of two starting for Willis Horton Racing LLC. Both are live, but I think he’s a little more interesting as the longer price of the pair. He was 5th behind Dash Attack in the mud in his local debut. That was a significantly better effort than his actual debut at Churchill. He adds blinkers today and could be dangerous if he can work out a trip from his high draw. Curly Tail (#9) is the other Horton runner, this one trained by Dallas Stewart. He seems to be pace dependent, and his best shot is if some of the firsters can challenge the top two early. He may be better suited underneath, but there’s enough unknown commodities here to cover with him on deeper plays.
Race 9:
The morning line for this allowance race feels a little out of whack. I’m not feeling the morning favorite, Prioritization (#10). He gets a wide draw with as many as five speed horses slotted inside of him. He’s moving up in class after beating a nice starter allowance horse in Leading West last out. Arrieta taking off this one in favor of the Santos Dumont (#2) is also a bit concerning. Pat’s Property (#1) showed his huge win at 45-1 with starter allowance company back in December was no fluke when he ran huge last out to narrowly miss in another starter allowance race. He moves up in class, but I’m not sure this field is much tougher than his last try. There’s a lot of other speed signed on, but he’s got the rail, which could be advantageous here. Calibrate (#9) has to be better than his last effort where he was a no-show when making his first start in three months. He is one of a few that is capable of rolling from the back of the pack when he’s right, and that style might play well with this group as many seem to want to make the front end here. He’s faced some high quality horses in his career, including Essential Quality and Aloha West to name a few. I’m thinking he’ll rebound here, and maybe do so at a bit of a price. Santos Dumont makes his first start for Chris Hartman and his first start since April. He was in good form before going on the shelf, narrowly missing in a pair of similar races here last year. He might need the race here, but at 12-1 (ML), or around that number, I’d be willing to find out how fit he is.
Race 10:
There’s a pair of horses coming in here from two very strong maiden special weight races. If Slim Man (#13) draws in off the also eligible list, there’s no way he’s going to go off anywhere near 5-1 (ML). He was clearly second best in the fastest six furlong maiden special weight race of the meet last out. Favorite Outlaw is a very nice horse that beat him going away that day. Slim Man was four lengths better than another nice horse, Insolito, in that race. He has two sharp efforts, coming from off the pace, and might be better going 6 and ½ or 7 furlongs (which isn’t an option here). I think he’s just faster than these. Stayed in for Half (#8) ships in from the Fair Grounds after finishing second to Zozos in a maiden special weight there last month. Zozos was an impressive allowance winner here two weeks ago and the third place finisher from that race, Strong Quality, came back to win a maiden special weight when stretching out to two turns at the Fair Grounds last weekend. He’s bred to be a good sprinter, and Asmussen has developed some excellent sprinters over the last few years. I expect him to take a step forward here. Plausible Denile (#11) is the most interesting of the first time starters in this race. His last two works have been very sharp in the morning for James DiVito. He was a $375K purchase at the OBS Sale last March, so he’s definitely got some speed to go along with a very nice pedigree. This is a tough spot to debut in, but I’d upgrade his chances if Slim Man doesn’t get to run.
Race 11: The $1 Million G2 Rebel Stakes
I covered this race much more in depth on the ITM Kentucky Derby blog, so I will link that post below. I think Newgrange (#2) is absolutely the horse to beat, and a logical single in this spot. He had multiple disadvantages in the Southwest when I thought he was vulnerable, but he still found a way to win. On paper, there’s less pace signed on and he’s drawn a significantly better post for this race. He’ll be a short price, but he’s the most likely winner. The other spots are wide open here so value and track condition will play a role in how I’ll construct my tickets. Ethereal Road (#10) and Chasing Time (#8) were both visually impressive in their respective wins on this course. Both will need to take another step forward, but both are interesting here. I think Ethereal Road will be a considerably longer price. Barber Road has been second in the first two Derby Points races here, despite having some trouble in both races. He continues to improve and he feels like a must-use underneath. Stellar Tap (#6) may have shown that he’s quickly maturing in his last start, while fighting on throughout the race despite a rough trip. Dash Attack (#11) was flat in the Southwest on a fast track, but he could be worth upgrading if the forecasted rains come through earlier in the day.
https://inthemoneypodcast.com/kentucky-derby-preview-series-the-g2-rebel-by-eric-solomon/
Race 12:
The card ends with a strong state bred optional claiming/allowance race headlined by the return of Rolling Fork (#11). He was very good in one turn races in open company at Churchill and Colonial after leaving Arkansas. He ran very well here last year when facing state bred company and he’s been working well for his return. Draw a line through his last race, which was an open stakes race going a two-turn seven furlongs at Charles Town, and he definitely belongs with these. He’s a major player that will be on the A line for my tickets, but I’m going to take a shot with Where’s Randy (#4) coming in off a maiden score. He’s a three year old that has been a little green, but when he gets rolling, he can definitely run. He’ll have a legitimate pace in front of him to close into. He’ll need to stay out of trouble, but he did improve when the apprentice, John Hiradlo, took over riding him last time out. Speed was pretty good yesterday, and another three year old, Mo Choctaw (#8) might be the fastest of the fast. He could hang with the ultra-talented Gar Hole last out when facing winners for the first time. Even though he debuted with state bred maiden claimers, his effort was sparkling two starts back. On deeper tickets, Ricardo Santana might be able to work out a stalking trip with Goodnight Archie (#3) while making his third start off the layoff today. His last two haven’t been bad, but he’s been too close to the front early on and hasn’t had enough left for the stretch drive. Heritage Park (#7) is another part of the pace puzzle in here. He was caught late when facing state bred claimers last out and he might be one to fade if there is some rain coming down. However, He’s racing back into his best form and he was really good here and at Prairie Meadows last year.
Favorite Bet Today: Late Pick-5 ($45 Ticket, $0.50 Base Wager)
Newgrange feels like a very good single in the Rebel, assuming the track doesn’t get too wet. If there is an off track, I might change my ticket structure to get a little bit of coverage there. The maiden special weight races feel like there are a few logical players in both. I’m hoping to get a bit of price in the 9th and 12th races to have this wager payout nicely.
The Ticket
Race 8: 2,8
Race 9: 1,2,9
Race 10: 8,11,13
Race 11: 2
Race 12: 3,4,7,8,11
