After a few days off, I’m back sharing some thoughts at Oaklawn this week, just in time for a loaded Apple Blossom card tomorrow. There are some vulnerable morning line favorites today, making for some good opportunities to try to create some value on this card. First post today is 12:35 (ET).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 2 | 2,8 | 6 | DBL, PK5 | |
| 2 | 10 | 1A,7,10 | 1 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 4 | 7 | 4,7 | DBL, PK3 | ||
| 5 | 8 | 8 | 7 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 6 | 5 | 4,5 | 6 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 7 | 1 | 1,12,13 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 9 | 7 | 5,7 | 1 | DBL | |
| 10 | 5 | 5,6 | 1 |
Race 1:
The day starts with a $20K N3L claiming race at six furlongs. I don’t trust the morning line favorite or the second choice in this spot. League of Legends (#2) was more consistent in 2023, so perhaps that’s a function of him showing his age. He has been facing tougher competition though, so the drop in class should be appreciated. Some of his recent struggles have come on off-tracks, so the warm and dry forecast should be favorable. Super Constitution (#8) was 4th at this level last out, finishing about 4 ½ lengths behind Pressure (#5), who is the morning line favorite. That race from Pressure seemingly came out of nowhere and I’m not convinced that he can replicate that effort. Super Constitution has been more consistent, which is a valuable asset with this group. On deeper tickets, Hot Ticket (#6) is a live longshot, if he can eliminate the antics at the gate. He was slow to go in his last two tries, but he was close at this level three back at Remington when he was on better behavior. I’m willing to look past his last race in hopes that we’ll see something more reminiscent of his Oklahoma form.
Race 2:
$12,500 maiden claiming fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs here. As per usual, Arkansas breds will run with a $20K tag. There’s not a lot of strong recent form in this race, so perhaps the first time starter, Breathtaking Folly (#10) makes some sense in this race. Timothy Martin has not had a great meet, but he is capable of winning with the debut runner. She’s the first foal to run from the mare Canteen, who had one win on the NYRA Circuit in her career and was competitive on debut. Practical Joke is a great first out sire with his runners winning 18% of their debut races in dirt sprints. 6 of 31 of those firsters (19%) came at the maiden claiming level. Dance My Way (#7) has been second in her last two starts at this level. While she hasn’t looked like a winner in either of those races, she did pair those Beyer figures and could be eligible to take another step forward today. Miss Terre (#1A) is the preferred half of the Champion Racing Stable entry. She was a bit slow to get into stride last time out in her second career start, which was her first on a fast track. She was behind a wall of horses as the frontrunners scampered away, leaving her with too much work to do. She closed with some interest to get into 5th, but I think she’s better than that performance. Mitolemybelle (#1) is worth using if Miss Terre scratches and I have no qualms with getting her in a two for one special in this spot if both go. She is making her second career start and her first in two months. She was a dull 7th in her debut when facing better. This is a big drop for her second try.
Race 3:
The $100K maiden claiming race is another contest where I’m not trusting the morning line favorite. Always Be Smart (#4) ran into Native Land, who was a dominant winner in maiden allowance company here last month. That one just came back to clear the N1X condition at Keeneland, so the form from that race should hold up. He’s been a bad actor at the gate, I’d feel a lot better if those antics could be resolved. Blinkers go on and he drops in class for this race, while also cutting back from 9 furlongs to 8 ½. I see him as the one to beat. I’d be willing to give Major Mack (#2) a second shot at two turns. His first try in a route came three starts back in the slop. He paired his Beyers from his debut race, but was still 13 ½ lengths behind the winner. The top two finishers were in their own race that day and his last two efforts in sprints were more competitive. He looks like the one that they’re going to have to run down late in this race.
Race 4:
$12,500-$10,000 N2L claimers will sprint six furlongs here. It’s an Asmussen family affair in this race with Steve Asmussen sending out Fastened (#4) and American Icon (#7). The former is ridden by Keith Asmussen and the latter is ridden by Erik Asmussen. American Icon has improved since being claimed at the end of the Churchill meet last November. He’s run four times since then, twice at Sam Houston and twice here at Oaklawn. The Sam Houston races are better, but there are some excuses for his local efforts. He caught a sloppy course here last time and three starts ago he was facing better when going one mile. I think this is the right level of competition for him and I think with a fast track today, he’s going to be tough. Fastened only has three starts, so the potential is still there. He finished up the track in his first two starts, but he was very sharp when beating $12,500 maiden claimers here. It’s a bit of a question mark as to if he can duplicate that effort. If he can, he’s likely going to win for fun. However, I do think a little regression is possible. Cravensworth (#10) is the morning line favorite making his first start off the Dan Ward claim. He’s hit the board in his last four starts and is making his third start off the layoff for a barn that does well with new claims. I don’t love him as the favorite, but the longer priced alternatives aren’t very appealing. .
Race 5:
The Early Pick-5 concludes with a $30K N3L claiming race at 1 1/16 miles. I don’t trust the favorite, Southern Sunset (#3) at all in this race, especially on a fast track. Dance Some Mo (#8) stands out as a horse that could offer some decent value after a rough trip last out when facing a better group. Lips Say Bliss was the winner of that race and he is favored in another starter allowance race at Keeneland this afternoon. He broke through three starts back when he cleared the N2L claiming level with a front running victory when breaking from the rail. He ran well two starts back when facing starter allowance types, but he struggled against a better field in his last start. He drops back in for a tag and he finds a field where there isn’t a ton of early speed. I think he can either control the tempo or press the pace just off the leader’s flank. He should have better position on Long Crow (#7), who makes sense on figures, but he often leaves himself too much work to do. He makes his third start off the layoff after two on the board finishes in his last two tries at this level.
Race 6:
The Late Pick-5 begins with an open $45K-$35K claiming race going one mile. This is another race with a morning line favorite that I would advocate playing against. On paper, it looks like The Reds (#3) is dropping in class, but the reality is that he has faced a fair of watered down fields in off the turf races in his last two starts at the Fair Grounds. While his figures are solid, I see him more as a horse that is more likely to finish second or third than to win this race outright. Phantom Ride (#5) feels like the one to beat in this race, coming in having won two straight. He beat N3L claimers two back and he beat a respectable N2X allowance field on the turf at Sam Houston in his most recent try. Asmussen seemingly has got him out of the funk that he was in from October to January. Uninvited Guest (#4) had a rough trip last out with time restricted claimers, running with a comparable tag. He ran up on heels when the frontrunners were trying to slow the pace down on the first turn. He was stymied and relegated toward the back of the field. He came with a nice move down the backstretch, but again, when Harry Hernandez thought he had a seem to run through, he was denied. I think he’s better than his last two efforts and he fits well with this group. On deeper tickets, I’m giving one more shot to Roman Centurion (#6) is worth thinking about as a backup in this spot. I loved him last out, but he came up empty. He didn’t have the best break two starts back, so there’s definite room for growth, if this year old gelding still has some strong efforts in the tank.
Race 7:
State bred runners go six furlongs in this beaten $12,500 claiming race. This race is either open to non-winners of three races or to horses that have not won a race at this current meet. You Vee Cee (#1) makes his second start off the layoff for Ron Moquett in this spot. He ran a solid race to be third at this level in his most recent start. All three career wins have come on this oval and he was a horse that was a definite upgrade in his second start off the layoff last season. On the opposite end of the starting gate, Choctaw Zip (#12) scored his first win of the meet when $20K N2L state bred claimers in the mud in his most recent effort. While both of his wins came on the off-track races, he ran a career top speed figure on a fast course two starts ago. Shake Up (#13) needs a defection to participate in this race. He was huge on this oval three starts ago, finishing in front of Choctaw Zip. He hasn’t run back to that effort because his last two starts were forgettable. He caught a brutally tough field when going one mile in the mud last out. He was up against a strong group in his last start. The class relief will be the key here.
Race 8:
A field of eight has entered this N1X allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. One of my stronger opinions today is Flashy Lass (#3), now racing for Steve Asmussen. She was excellent at Keeneland and Remington this fall. She came to Hot Springs and found a lot of bad weather in her three starts at this level. She broke from the outside and was caught three wide going into the first turn. She settled off the early pace and made an early move to the front to try to get the jump on the closers. She took the lead, but couldn’t hold off the race winner, Insensitive, and the runner-up, Paris Style (#6), who is the morning line favorite in this race. I think she can sit a comfortable stalking trip, just behind Rose Parade (#1), who figures to dictate the terms from her rail draw. I don’t think Asmussen will need to be as aggressive and I think getting back on a fast surface will be the key to getting her back in the Winner’s Circle. Rose Parade is the back up for me in this spot, coming off a strong maiden special weight score in the slop three weeks ago. She’ll need to prove that she can have the same impact in a fast track against winners, however, the future seems to be bright for this daughter of Curlin.
Race 9:
Bob Baffert has Adare Manor running in the Apple Blossom tomorrow, so he decided to bring Grazia (#1) along for the ride. She was a winner on debut at Del Mar this fall, but she was a no show in her second career start in the Starlet. She makes her first start of the year, cutting back in distance. She looks like a nice filly, but I don’t love the rail, and I think she’s going to be overbet. She’ll be a B line play for me. Lady Moscato (#7) is coming off a maiden score for D. Wayne Lukas. She looked like a promising filly over the summer, but she went off form after faltering in the Spinaway. She looked like she was trending in the right direction when breaking her maiden in her second start off the layoff in her last start. She’ll face winners for the first time, but I think she’ll pass that test today. There’s a chance for a lively early pace battle and that could set the table for a longshot like Divine Gal (#5). She closed well into a fast pace when breaking her maiden in December. She came back in the Mockingbird Stakes and flattened out when going five wide on the turn. She was well beaten in her last two races, both at two turns. I think this is a good spot for a wake-up call at long odds. As many as four could be battling for the lead and I think she;s better at one turn. I’d prefer a little more distance, but at 15-1 or better, I could look past that.
Race 10:
Beaten $10K claimers will close out the Friday card. Lamutanaatty (#5) was my top pick with open $10K claimers here last month and he came within a neck of getting the job done. He caught a sloppy course that day and was claimed by Wade Rarick, who has good numbers with a limited sample first off the claim. I think he’s a good fit in this race and he looks like a horse that is going to take another step closer to getting back to his better form. Creme de La Chrome (#6) is probably the most consistent runner in this field. He always shows up, and getting class relief should be the key to him getting closer to crossing the wire first. He has 6 wins in 17 career starts, so he does know how to find the Winner’s Circle. Colt Fiction (#1) is a Jonas Gibson/Flurry Racing claim and drop special. I don’t love this move, but it has worked well for these connections in the past. If he rebounds from a disastrous outing, he’s going to be awfully tough to deal with. However, I’m never fully comfortable as a handicapper with a claim and drop move like this.
Meet Statistics:
Top Pick Winners: 105/474 (22.2%, $1,013.80, $2.14 ROI)
