Oaklawn Park Racing Preview – 4/13/24 – By Eric Solomon

The Grade 1 Apple Blossom Handicap is one of the signature races at this Oaklawn meet every year. The list of names that have won this race is beyond impressive. Bayakoa, Paseana, Heavenly Prize, Escena, Azeri, Zenyatta, Havre de Grace, Untapable, and Midnight Bisou are just some of the big names to take home the trophy in this prestigious race. Nine horses are signed on for this year’s contest, which is also supported by the Grade 3 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap. First post for the super-sized 12 race card is an earlier 12:10 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The first of 12 races on the afternoon is a $12,500-$10,000 N2L claiming race for fillies and mares going six furlongs. There’s not much in terms of value in the opener, as I think it’s going to be hard for these ladies to beat Savage Darling (#7) here. While I’ll acknowledge that she refused to break two starts back, her other three efforts would easily beat this bunch. She rebounded after that race against a more competitive field at the Fair Grounds in her last start. I think she’s popular winner at short odds in this spot. Subway Susie (#3) is the back up play for me in this spot on the drop in class. While Mamba Out (#5) has been more consistent, she often comes up short. We could see a bit of a forward move from her at this level.

Race 2: 

$25K-$20K N2L claimers will sprint six furlongs in this race today. My Uncle Leon (#3) should prove to be very tough to beat on the drop in class for Eddie Milligan. He looked good when breaking his maiden in an off the turf allowance race at Churchill last May. He was competitive in a strong N1X allowance race at Ellis in June before going to the sidelines. Willis Horton Racing transferred their horses to Eddie Milligan Jr., which explains the trainer change going into this race. He came back flat against a good N2L allowance bunch last month, This is the right level of competition for him. He looks to be too good for these. Tirico (#9) is the backup for me in this race. Since leaving Brittany Russell’s barn, he’s been up against it in his three local tries. He was claimed for $30K last out and now enters this race with a $25K tag for Steve Asmussen. Erik Asmussen gets the mount as Keith rides Go Otto Go (#2). While the connections might prefer that one, I think Tirico could benefit from an outside draw here. 

Race 3:

Open $8K claimers are going to sprint six furlongs here. Raymond (#7) has been very consistent of late. In his last nine races, he has won twice and finished in the money five other times. His two off the board finishes came in the slop where he was a voided claim and on Tapeta at Presque Isle. He ran a credible race last out in the slop where he almost went down after clipping heels with a rival. Carlos Barbosa lost his irons and it looked like the horse was going to plummet back through the field. However, the moment he got back in his irons, the horse responded and took the lead before getting nailed on the wire. Had that incident not happened, I think he almost certainly would have won that race. He’s better on a fast track and should be there with this group at the end. Paco Lopez is in town today to ride Shotgun Hottie in the Apple Blossom. It’s the first time that I can remember him racing here, at least in the last few years. He’ll pick up the mount on Smokin’ Hot (#6) for Dan Ward, who is familiar with his work at Monmouth. He cuts back in distance after fading with time restricted claimers at one mile in his last start. Only six of his 17 career starts have come on the dirt, but he’s only finished off the board in one of them. He fits with this group today. Full Authority (#10) won his last race after taking a deep drop in class. He’s been away for two months, which I’m not certain I love. His works since then have been on the slow side, especially for a horse that was a little more lively in the mornings last summer. I’ll cover with him in this spot, but I do have some doubts. 

Race 4: 

Many of these rivals are familiar with each other in this $30K-$25K maiden claiming contest going 1 1/16 miles. Even though many of these finished in front him last out, I think there’s upside with Darvesh (#2), making his first start off the Greg Compton claim. He made his second career start last month, trying two turns after two months off. He was wide and carried out by a first time starter going into the first turn that day. The pace was solid and Vazquez moved early to try to put him in play. He leveled off, but he did finish with a little interest. He makes his second start at two turns today while getting a better post and running for a higher percentage barn. While weights aren’t a big factor in my handicapping, I do think it’s worth noting that he gets in 11 pounds lighter than the favorite, and when coupled with a better starting position, that could be meaningful. There’s enough positives there to think that we’ll see a better effort from at decent odds. The Heights (#7) was finishing well in that same race when making his first start since May. Despite his strong pedigree, this is probably the right level of competition for him. My main concern is that he doesn’t have a ton of early speed and horses coming from too far back were struggling yesterday. Rocket Night (#8) drops in for a tag while making his second start for D, Wayne Lukas. His barn had a pair of winners yesterday and this three year old colt keeps getting a little better with each start. I think it was clear that he wasn’t going to win races at the maiden allowance level here, so the drop makes sense. He may be a bit pace compromised in this race as well though. 

Race 5: 

The Early Pick-5 ends and the Mid-Card Pick-5 begins with another $25K-$20K N2L claiming race, this one going 1 1/16 miles. Interlock Empire (#1) is the class of this field, dropping in for a tag for the first time in his nine race career. He closed well into a fast pace to break his maiden going away here last March. That was a good enough effort to take a swing in the Arkansas Derby. He failed to hit the board in that race or the Bath House Row Stakes later that month. He tried the turf twice and one more start on dirt in allowance company, all to no avail, finishing off the board each time. His main issue is that he has absolutely no early speed and he often leaves himself way too much work to do. The rail draw should help him stay in contact with this field early, but there isn’t a ton of pace signed on. I’m going to include him because he has been facing considerably better fields than the group that he’s up against today, but I’m going to try to beat him with a few prices. Deluca (#5) faces winners for the first time after overcoming some traffic to beat $30K maiden claimers last month. His Beyer pattern appears to be up and down, but he was in position to be battling for the win two back before being forced to steady significantly late. He crossed the line 4th, but was moved up to 3rd. Had he not dealt with that, his final figure would have likely been closer to his prior start. On paper, his bigger number last time out looks like a big enough jump to start to thin about entering bounce territory, but I see that more of a steady progression. This is not a particularly strong field and he has enough tactical speed to sit close. I think he’s capable of finding the Winner’s Circle in this spot. Artwell (#4) had his number put up in that same $30K maiden claimer that Deluca is coming out of. He drifted late and was nailed on the wire by the horse that caused the stretch issues. The victory from his rival last month validates some of the form from that race. I don’t see anyone that’s going to be challenging Artwell for the early lead in this spot. He faced a better group of winners in the slop and was no match for Southern Sunset, who is a beast on a wet track and just came back to win again yesterday. He drops in class and should be able to set an easier pace on a fast track. 

Race 6: 

The Mid-card Pick-4 begins with this maiden special weight race for three year olds going one mile. Yell County (#8) should be very tough in this race, cutting back to a mile after finishing second to a runaway winner at nine furlongs last month. The winner, Native Land, came back to clear the first level allowance condition on Wednesday at Keeneland. This gelded son of Vino Rosso has two good efforts at this meet and now makes his third start off the layoff for Robert Medina, whose horses tend to get better with more starts. The dam has produced two graded stakes winners so there is talent there as well. He has tactical speed and feels like the one to beat in this race. Lear (#6) is one of two runners that Steve Asmussen will be sending out. This one debuted in the slop against older horses when sprinting six furlongs. The maiden special weight races for older sprinters have been contentious and fast races all season long, so I can look past his off the board effort that day. He’ll get a fast track today while stretching out to two turns. His sire, Lea, has a modest stud fee, so the fact that he was sold as a two year for $310K, over 40 times his fee at the time, tells me that his connections saw something promising about this colt. The morning line favorite is Corporal (#1), who cost $1,150,000 as a yearling. Brad Cox will send out this son of Gun Runner for the second time after finishing off the board in a good maiden special weight sprint on the Louisiana Derby undercard. He was absolutely hammered at the windows, but didn’t have the best beginning. He never was a factor that day, finishing second to last. His dam, Kathballu, was a multiple stakes winning filly, who did win twice at two turns, but she did her best work at one turn. He’s her first foal to make it to the track and being sired by Gun Runner, there’s reason to believe that he’ll be better at two turns. Cox has strong numbers with maidens in their second start. In the last five years, he has sent out 205 second time starters, going from sprints to routes in that second start. 55 of those horses have come back as winners (27%). Horses sired by Gun Runner are winning 20% of the time in their first route races. The stats are definitely there, but the value is what I’m not sure about. After watching his debut, I’d need closer to 4-1 than 2-1 to be interested. Otherwise, he’s more of a saver for me. 

Race 7:

An overflow field of 14 is entered in this $12,500 maiden claiming sprint, where horses bred in the state of Arkansas will run with a $20K tag. I’ll try the Karl Broberg first time starter, Champagne Mike (#5) here. Broberg has quietly had a better meet this year than he had in the last few seasons. Most of his work comes in the claiming game, so he doesn’t debut too many first time starters. He does have two wins with seven debut runners over the last year in maiden claiming company. This horse is a Florida bred through and through. His sire didn’t do much on the track, but he did win on debut at Calder and has one debut winner in dirt sprints with nine first time starters. The works are good and Arrieta taking the mount is a plus. Auto Dial (#9) is going to take most of the money. On paper, he should dominate based on speed figures, but the continued pattern of claiming horses and taking a deep dive in class for Flurry Racing Stable is odd. It feels like earning the leading owner title is more valuable than turning a profit at this meet. I have my doubts, but many of these horses have won races like this at this meet, so I can’t really ignore him. Corked (#3) has a new trainer with Diodoro on suspension for the moment. He ran a respectable race first off the claim with $50K maiden claimers last out. He’s another one taking a deep drop shortly after the claim, however, his class makes him a contender in a field where many have tried and failed.Without Objection (#7) ran a big race when cutting back to a sprint for Chris Hartman last month. He just missed when facing Violent River. I do think that Auto Dial and Corked are faster than that runner, so I see this as a tougher spot. That race also somewhat came out of nowhere. He doesn’t have the red flags that the other two do, but to take him at 7-2 in this field, I need to see that he can run back to that last start.

Race 8, $500K Count Fleet Sprint Handicap:

The signature sprint race of this meet carries a $500K purse. The winner of this race last year was Skelly (#4) who is back to defend his title. He has six wins and a second place finish in eight starts on this oval. No one in this field is as fast as he is from the gate. He was good enough to be sent to Saudi Arabia in February where he finished second in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint, carrying a $1,500,000 purse. Even though his stablemates Jaxon Traveler (#2) and Ryvit (#7) have early speed, they’re not going to duel with Skelly up front. I’d look for Jaxon Traveler to press the pace and Ryvit to try to repeat his effort in the Steel Valley Sprint at Mahoning Valley, where he came from off the pace to win. My only concern with Skelly is how much the trip overseas took out of him. We often see horses struggle in their first North American start after racing in Dubai. He has three works since that race which, while they aren’t blazing, they are on par with his prior works going into races like the King Cotton Stakes. I can’t ignore him, but I think if Tejano Twist (#6) is going to beat him, this is the spot where it will happen. He’s a closing sprinter that was pace compromised in the Whitmore. He lost by a nose to Jaxon Traveler, in spite of the moderate tempo in front of him. He was struggling to gain in the King Cotton Stakes in the slop, which was also the case in that race last year. Skelly being in here ensures a decent pace since that runner is so naturally quick. He’ll be coming late, and if the favorite is still a little tired from his trip, he could be the beneficiary today.

Race 9:

The final Pick-4 of the day begins with a N1X allowance race for older horses going one mile. This is an absolutely wide open contest where there are several runners that could be win candidates. I landed on Mackman (#9), who is facing winners for the first time today. He passed the two turn test with flying colors while breaking his maiden in his last start. He faces several hard knocking horses, but many of these are not horses that seem to love to win. He has more upside than most and I see Cristian Torres hanging around to ride as a plus. Sara’s Shaman (#2) ships from Gulfstream for Saffie Joseph today. He has two strong races in a row after some tough races at the start of his career. His sire, Shaman Ghost, needed some races to figure out how to be a racehorse, and that seems to be the case with this runner. He was caught late when setting the fractions in a N1X allowance race in the slop at Gulfstream last out. I think Castellano will put him on the lead and try to get him home in his third race off the layoff. Silver Heist (#11) is one that could be a longshot candidate to be flying late in this race. Keith Asmussen is likely going to have to pass them all to win this, but I think his only move is to try to tuck over at the break and make one sustained bid. He is making his second start after a 10 month layoff, so he should be more fit for this race. I see some upside with this four year old Tapit gelding. Alexander Helios (#7) is a saver for me in this race. He was excellent when breaking his maiden and clearing the N1X allowance condition at Tampa. He remains eligible for this condition at Oaklawn, but his two local races weren’t his best. He cuts back in distance and gets Paco Lopez to ride, which feels like an upgrade over Leparoux.

Race 10:

A pair of races for Arkansas breds will sandwich the Apple Blossom Handicap in the Last Pick-3 opportunity of the afternoon. Fillies and mares will go six furlongs in this optional $30K claiming/N1X allowance contest. I’m going to try Ms Carroll County (#7) on top here. She makes her third start off the layoff after running a competitive third with an N2L allowance field here last out. She ran her best race in her third career start when she crushed a state bred maiden special weight field. She’ll be overlooked as her connections have had a brutally tough meet this season. She should be well placed in a race where I think some of the shorter prices might be running a down race. Music Mistress (#4) had a down race when she was beaten by Punchy Girl (#6) by less than a length. She had some self-imposed trouble at the start, breaking in sharply and causing some unpleasant trips for herself and others. She was beaten to her spot after that and had to try to run behind horses while pinned in along the rail. She got a seam along the rail, but Punchy Girl had the momentum coming over the top. I think it’s more likely that Music Mistress rebounds and puts forth a better effort than getting beat by Punchy Girl again. Mozingo (#9) is likely favorite after running a huge second behind Kantex in the Downthedustyroad Breeders’ Stakes last month. She’ll need to show me that she can put two big efforts together. At short odds on her, I prefer some of the others, but her last was too good to completely dismiss. 

Race 11: The $1.250,000 Grade 1 Apple Blossom Handicap:

Bob Baffert has had horses start 30 times at Oaklawn in the last five years. He has been in the Winner’s Circle 15 times in that span and many of the horses that were not winners, were horses that were just along for the ride. For example Muth came in to win the Arkansas Derby, Bonaqua came along for the ride to finish third in her maiden race. Adare Manor (#4) is the reason for this business trip, but Grazia came along and was 4th yesterday in allowance company. Adare Manor was excellent in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile last month, but Sweet Azteca was just a little better. She can control the tempo in this race and shouldn’t have any issues making the lead from post 4 if that’s the plan. She ran big in that race and she may finding her best stride now as a five year old. Her only two starts outside of Southern California were losses, but both of those came as a three year old. I think she’s simply faster than her eight opponents in this race and she’ll earn her second Grade 1 victory today. Wet Paint (#3) loves this course but she’s making her first start off a layoff and I don’t think she’s going to get a particularly fast pace to close into. I think this is a good spot for Taxed (#2) to finish in front of her for the first time. She was beaten by Wet Paint in all three starts on the trail to the Kentucky Oaks last year. Morse skipped the Oaks and ran in the Black Eyed Susan instead where she earned her first graded stakes victory. She ended her season in September and came back nicely to win a six furlong sprint here last month. I was against her that day, because I thought that race was strictly designed to get her set for this race. She’s going to need to be faster, but I think she’s a good saver in this race and I believe she can finish in front of her nemesis for the first time today.

Race 12:

The day ends with a $50K-$40K maiden claiming race for Arkansas breds sprinting six furlongs. If Chrome’s Echo (#14) is able to draw into the body of this field, he has been working like a horse that could be ready to roll on debut. There isn’t much speed signed on and, judging from his 47.2 drill last week, he may be sent from his outside post. If he doesn’t draw in, the favorite, Time Andbeyond (#2) looks tough on the drop in class. He’s had a lot of stops and starts in his career, so making his third start without interruption is a plus. This is probably the right level for him, after finishing in a dead heat for second last month. I’d like to see Keith Asmussen have him forwardly placed here. Perhaps Changing Times (#3)is ready to go for Bret Calhoun, who does have good numbers off the layoff and with runners going from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company. He’s also moving from open company to state bred company, which is another drop in class. He didn’t show much in his first two starts, but perhaps the time off has served him well. There isn’t a ton for him to deal with here, so I do see him as a live longshot. 

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 107/484 (22.2%, $1,032.40, $2.13 ROI)