Oaklawn Park Racing Preview – 4/26/24 – By Eric Solomon

There’s only six days of racing left in the 2023-2024 meet at Oaklawn. The second to last week of racing begins with a 10 race, Friday afternoon card. At this point, the weekend should be dry and on the cooler side. Temperatures should warm up for Sunday though. First post today is 12:35 (ET). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day begins with a $10K N1X claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. The lack of early speed in this race is a factor, especially when the 6-5 morning line favorite, Beachgrass (#3), likes to do her running from the back of the pack. She’s a consistent type that typically runs her race, and she adapted to win a paceless race on the turf at Golden Gate three starts ago. She’ll be on my tickets, but she’s going to have to be closer to the front end than she was on her last two starts. I’m going to try Undecoded (#7) in hopes that she can steal this one on the front end. I tried this move with her two back in February, but she couldn’t clear without having to go three wide halfway around the first turn. She was then pressured by the favorite, who was a little rank down the backside. She broke inward last out and that cost her an opportunity to make the front end. She showed some improvement in her speed figures despite finishing almost 12 lengths behind the winner. This is the softest field she’s faced and her 2023 here was excellent. I’ll try to get her on the form reversal one more time. It’sfiftyshadetime (#6)  just missed against a similar field. Keith Asmussen, who had a winner and a runner-up at Keeneland on Wednesday is back to ride this one for his father for the second time. Like Beachgrass, I need to see a little more speed from him to convince me that he’s worth the short morning line number. 

Race 2:

We’ll stay at 1 1/16 miles for this $12,500-$10,000 N2L claiming race. Whenever there’s a race like this, where the shorter priced runners are horses that struggle to win, I’ll usually opt for a less experienced runner. Captive Audience (#6) was claimed off of Brad Cox in his debut for $30K. Cipriano Contreras claimed him and dropped him in a maiden claiming race with a $12,500 tag, which is usually a red flag for me. I tried to beat this one that day and he proved to be too good for that field. He earned $18K in purse money and was not claimed, which worked well for Contreras, who is having a tremendous meet. This feels like the right level to face winners for the first time. I can see him moving forward once again. Both Contrabandista (#4) and Life On the Nile (#9) have become familiar with each other, with Life On the Nile finishing in front of his rival in their last two races together at this level. Contrabandista just missed getting up for second last time and today he draws inside of his rival, while getting a rider upgrade to Cristian Torres, who is running away with the jockey title at this meet. I think he’ll be able to save more ground than Life On the Nile, who is in the outside stall today. There are others that want to be forward, so that one risks going wide into the first turn. While his overall figures are better than this group, Life On the Nile really does need everything to fall his way to find the Winner’s Circle. That was the case when he finally broke his maiden in the slop at Delaware this fall. He’s more of a saver for me in this spot as he’s been a habitual money burner throughout his career. 

Race 3:

Beaten $12,500 filly and mare claimers will go six furlongs in the first sprint of the day. To be eligible for this race, a horse must either qualify under the N3L condition or have not won a race since November 28th. When a speed horse blows the break and runs poorly, I’m often willing to forgive that race and that is the case for Spanish Delight (#7). She was making her first start after being claimed by Timothy Martin when facing similar last out. She broke awkwardly, and Harry Hernandez was jostled around in the saddle, costing her valuable position early on. Early speed is her game, and there’s much of that signed on in this race. She was very sharp at Prairie Meadows last summer and now she’s in her third start off the layoff. I like her chances to wire this field. Essential Business (#2) is the morning line favorite, and the runner that is most likely to be making ground on the top choice. She still could be able to grind out a win with this group, but she’s not the same horse that was running big races in Southern California last summer. 

Race 4:

Three year old fillies will go 1 1/16 miles in this optional $100K claiming/N1X allowance race. I see the two shorter priced horses being the ones to beat in this six horse field. In Just My Heels (#6) should have a pace edge and has the class edge over Under the Palms (#4). However, I think Under the Palms has the higher ceiling. I’ll be using both, and I’ll be looking for the better value play, but I think In Just My Heels could get away with setting soft fractions on the front end, which could make her hard to run down. She made the lead two starts back in the Honeybee, and faded to be 7th day. The pace was more aggressive in the Fantasy and she couldn’t keep up early, and threw in the towel around the ½ mile marker. Her maiden score three starts back was solid and I think she’ll appreciate the drop in class. Even though she’s the morning line favorite, I’m thinking Under the Palms goes into the gate as the post time favorite. Under the Palms was excellent when beating a nice maiden allowance field here on Arkansas Derby Day. She has lingered near the back of the pack in her first three starts, but Brian Hernandez had her closer to the leaders in the early stages last time. She has looked much sharper here than she was as a two year old at Saratoga last summer. Emmanuel Esquivel rides for the first time today.

Race 5: 

We’ll end the Early Pick-5 with a $12,500 maiden claiming race for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. As per usual, Arkansas breds are eligible to run with a $20K tag. This is a deep drop for Enigmatic (#9), who is also printing for the first time. Brad Cox trains this three year West Coast filly, who has a few decent efforts. She was 4th as the beaten 4-5 favorite with $50K maiden claimers last out. With only six days of racing left in the meet, it looks like the goal is for Cox to leave Arkansas without this filly in his barn. This is a deep drop in class and it’s not a strong field for this condition. While the drop is suspicious, she’d really have to run awfully to lose this race. She’s Taboo (#4) is the second choice and the filly that the favorite will likely have to run down. She was a voided claim with bottom maidens last out when she finished second. If she runs back to her two best races, she’ll at least be competitive, but she’s also thrown in some clunkers. I doubt there will be sufficient value with her to try to take a stand against the favorite. 

Race 6:

The Late Pick-5 gets started with a $32K-$28K N2L claiming race at six furlongs. There’s a lot of speed signed on for this race, and while it’s been a long time since Ben Diesel (#11) found himself in the Winner’s Circle, he’s dropping in class and he should get the right set up. He’s been effective in one turn races when facing better. The six furlong trip might be a little short for him, but this drop in class has been a long time coming. He’s a homebred for Willis Horton who has earned almost $300K, despite only winning once. He’s been facing significantly better fields in allowance company over the last few seasons and he’ll get one of the softer fields that he’s seen in his career today. This race is a little top heavy, but there’s also a lot of filler. He is the one to beat. Sound Doctrine (#3) is the morning line favorite after a pair of big efforts with N2L claimers. He’s dropping in class slightly and he hasn’t competed in over two months. The gaps in his form line are a bit concerning, especially if he goes into the gate around even money. If this field stays intact, he’s going to have a lot of company on the front end early as well. He’s worth covering, but he is beatable in this race. 

Race 7:

This is a wide open maiden special weight to start the Late Pick-4. The race starts with Wants N Needs (#7) who ran a huge race in his debut, only to be nailed on the wire. That race, which was on the Arkansas Derby undercard, came back fast. He has one workout since and figures to be a player in this race. He’s going to be on my tickets, but I’m intrigued with Mischevious M (#4). He was the lukewarm betting favorite in the Texas Thoroughbred Association Derby at Sam Houston last month. Sometimes those restricted stakes races are on the weak side and not comparable to maiden allowance races on a circuit like this. However, I thought that was a decent field that he was up against while debuting at two turns. With Sam Houston not taking simulcast money outside of Texas, a lot of the money on him was local money, which tells me that some people thought this horse had some ability. Austin Gustafson has only trained two horses at this meet and neither hit the board. He typically wins a good number of races each year in Texas though. The horse cuts back to a sprint, which as a son of Runhappy, should be suitable for him. He’s the pick for me in this spot. On deeper tickets, I’ll give a look to Doug Anderson’s first time starter, Zatara (#9). This one is the first foal to race from a dam that was a two time stakes winner on this oval. She was a close third in her debut. Audible doesn’t have great numbers with debut runners, sprinting on the dirt (4-54, 7%). However, I do think this one has a shot in this race. 

Race 8:

There’s 11 runners set to go in this $37,500-$32,500 N1Y claiming race going 1 1/16 miles. I’ve been a fan of Trident Hit (#4) for quite some time now. He’s been flat in his two starts at this meet so far, but those races have come against better horses. This is a decent drop in class, but it’s probably the right level for him. He’s not as far removed from his last win as some of these runners are, finding the Winner’s Circle four starts back at Churchill in September. He’s been eligible for this condition for about nine days. Home Run Trick (#1) was claimed for $32K after running a clunker in open company last time out. He was very good two back when finishing second in an open $30K-$25K claimer. He wants to be near the front end and the rail draw should help his cause. He still has a great record on this course with 8 wins and 17 overall in the money finishes in 27 career starts at Oaklawn. Camp David (#2) was a winner here in 2023 with N1X allowance company and has been shut out in five starts since. All of those races came against stronger groups, and he’;s been very consistent. I don’t love him as the favorite, but I do see him as a player with these. 

Race 9:

The featured race today is a N3L allowance race for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. There’s three short prices and three double digit longshots on the morning line here. Hypersport (#4) is the pick in this spot to rebound after struggling with a good group last month when making her first start in 11 months. She’s not a horse that loves to win, but you can say that about a lot of these ladies. Taxed was the winner of that last race, and that filly won the Black Eyed Susan last year. Palacein was the runner up and she just won the Wilma Mankiller Stakes at Will Rogers. Backyard Money was the third place finisher and that one and she came back to win a salty starter allowance race earlier in this month. If they were eligible, those three fillies would be even money or less with this group. I’m not convinced that either Effortlesslyelegant (#3) or Our Keepsake (#5) is worthy of their short prices in this spot. Both have their top figures on off-tracks. Our Keepsake was in a tight spot last out, but she was no match for Tanya Showers. I feel like Effortlesslyelegant would be really good at seven or eight furlongs in a one turn race. Perhaps she’ll get to try that in Louisville next month. Instead, I’ll use Lady Dreamer (#1) as my alternative in this spot. She’s a four year old filly, making her third start off the layoff. She’s started 10 times and she’s never finished off the board. She still needs to run a career top race to win this and I’m not certain how high her ceiling is. I think she’s closer to these than her 12-1 morning line might suggest. 

Race 10:

The Friday card wraps up with a beaten $12,500 claiming race for Arkansas breds, sprinting six furlongs. After watching his debut in January, I would have never expected to see Twenty to Park (#5) at this level at this point in the season. He decimated a maiden field on an off-track in January, drawing off to win by nine lengths. He’s failed to show the same explosiveness in his last three starts though, where he was a beaten favorite each time. He was 4th, beaten less than three lengths in the Rainbow Stakes last out, so it’s surprising to see that he’s not getting another shot in N1X company. Perhaps it’s a business decision, as his value in open races over the next six months isn’t the same as what it is when Oaklawn is running. That is the fact that will keep me from trying to beat him outright. You Vee Cee (#10) is the top pick. He makes his third start off the layoff after drawing the rail for his first two starts of the year. He was shuffled back out of contention in his last. He’s appeared to be more comfortable when running on the outside of horses. He has yet to find a way to get back to his best 2023 form, but if he can get close, I think he wins this one. On deeper tickets, Hoppin John (#1) is cross-entered in a tougher spot on Sunday. I don’t think his connections were thrilled with the rail draw, however, I do think he has a forward move to give in his third race of his current form cycle. If he runs, he’s an interesting one to think about underneath. 

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 114/517 (22.1%, $1,085.80, $2.10 ROI)