We got one heck of an eight-race card lined up, with lots of bettable, competitive fields. There is the slightest bit of weather in the area, but it shouldn’t deter a trip to the track. Without further ado, let’s get into this card.
All times EDT
RACE 1 – 5 furlongs, Maiden Special Weight Post Time: 3:30 p.m
Kicking the week off with a group of 2-year-olds. There’s a baffling morning line on Bossy Wossy (#7), whose workout times look outstanding, with multiple 3-furlong works under 36 seconds and half-mile works under 48 seconds. The only question left is if he’ll go 5, but I think that extra furlong won’t be an issue for this son of Maclean’s Music. Israel Rodriguez is third in the jockey standings, and Juan Arriagada’s barn is winning with 2-year-olds at a 22% rate. I don’t expect the morning line to hold on the #7, but I think Jorge Delgado’s shipper Final Minute (#3) will be equally as popular at the window. Sired by a son of Maclean’s Music, Drain The Clock, this colt has a start in him on the Jersey dirt, going 5 furlongs at Monmouth Park where he finished 3rd. I have high hopes for Matowy (#2), sired by Frosted and by a mare who won and placed many times on the Presque Isle synth. His last half-mile work was timed at 46.3 over a half-mile, though he might want to go longer given his sire and his dam, sired by Tiznow.
Race 1 selections:7-3-2
RACE 2 – 5 ½ furlongs, Claiming $5,000 Post Time: 3:57
This is a $5k claimer gamblers dream about (or maybe it’s just me), including a large field, bettable longshots and lots of places to hedge money for potentially big returns. Thalberg (#3) at the 10-1 morning line is the horse that interests me, dropping in tag and picking up Gaddiel Martinez, a rider cutting his teeth on the sprints this meet. Two of the horses who finished ahead of him on the 6th of July have run back in higher classes and both finished second, so the drop in tag from $8,500 looks attractive here. Smokin’ Hot (#4) retains the meet’s leading rider Antonio Gallardo and was close last time out, losing only by a half-length. Israel Rodriguez picks up the reins on Riding A Dream (#7) over other horses he’s been in the irons for, which is always a tricky thing to judge. I don’t want to mark this horse as washed at 4 years old, and the speed figures from last year indicate that he might have just needed time to adjust to a new trainer’s barn.
Race 2 selections:3-4-7
RACE 3 – 1 mile 70 yards, Claiming $12,500 Post Time: 4:24
I really like Mr. Colossal (#7) in this spot. While he had a tough race last time out, two horses from that $25k claimer have run back in the money, with winner Nuts And Bolts winning her second consecutive race just last week. He has the ability to compete here and I think Walber Alencar is a solid switch even as this horse loses Gaddiel Martinez. Billy White Shoes (IRE) (#4) drops here from a $16k optional claimer at Penn National, and his running on the Turfway synth this winter indicates he could be good enough to make the transition to the Erie tapeta. If Gideon (#1) drifts at all, it’s worth the two dollars to speculate with conditioner Lisa Allen’s $3.58 ROI and 20% win rate in route races.
Race 3 selections:7-4-1
RACE 4 – 1 mile 70 yards, Claiming $5000 Post Time: 4:51
Kitten’s War (#6) weakened in her trip last time out, but she’s not one to come off a layoff guns blazing. She should look much improved this time for leading trainer Kevin Rice’s barn. Little Martha (#4) ran a 6 furlong allowance last time out and finished 4th, so this spot is some class relief for her. Extending a horse off a sprint run is a high-percentage move for Murray Rojas’s stable, winning at 20%, and jockey Martina Rojas has had several multi-win days lately. Inanna’s Quest (#3) should enjoy the class relief and will stick with jockey Scott Spieth, a likely slot-in for third.
Race 4 selections:6-4-3
RACE 5 – 5 furlongs, Maiden Special Weight Post Time: 5:18
Multiple 2-year-old events on the same card will make for an exciting sequence, and a tough open to the Late Pick 4. The simply-named Boom (#9) has worked exceptionally up to his debut, with multiple half-mile works clocking in at 47.1 seconds and three back he worked 5 furlongs in 59.4 seconds, turning a corner from his slower June workouts. Cash Cashel (#6) is coming off a second-place run and makes his third start for Timothy Hamm. I like the move to retain Walber Alencar as well. I can’t ignore the Ron Potts barn forever, and Antonio Gallardo will surely destroy at least one of my trifectas at some point in the card. What’s Your Name (#7) worked a half-mile in 46.3 seconds, and the barn is firing with 2-year-olds at a 25% win rate.
Race 5 selections: 9-6-7
RACE 6 – 1 1/16 miles, Allowance Post Time: 5:45
If Devil Anse (#4) makes the change from Churchill Downs dirt to the Presque Isle synthetic, it will be tough to beat him. This horse is no stranger to routes, with his last tapeta start coming at Turfway going 12 furlongs in an optional claimer. Brandon Kulp’s Neoking (#2) rises from the claiming ranks, and the Kulp stable keeps their winners in good condition, sustaining success with 33% of winners winning their next start. Manoah’s Glory (#1) should look sharp coming from the back of the pack, winning three of his last four starts, including two wins on the Gulfstream synthetic course.
Race 6 selections:4-2-1
RACE 7 – 6 ½ furlongs, Allowance Optional Claiming Post Time: 6:12
Heavy Pour (#3) should be tough once again, really showing some strength since his 5-year-old debut and getting Gaddiel Martinez aboard. Scooter Davis is vying for leading trainer, and I am loathe to count out Certain (#1), getting Gallardo aboard. A horse from this barn with a 9-2 morning line would be worth the inclusion for any box bets. Live Stream (#4) is a horse I’ve talked about before, and he didn’t embarrass himself in either the Tom Ridge Stakes or in his last race. Getting a lighter weight assignment might be the ticket for him.
Race 7 selections:3-1-4
RACE 8 – 1 mile 70 yards, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 6:39
Silent Diva (#6) is back in this race (hopefully), and I’ve said before how much I love her pedigree. I will only be using her for third, however, as there are horses that I think will fire better in this race. Michael Pappada has a high win rate with horses who won their last starts, and I expect the 9-2 Lillesand (#9) to compete well in her first tilt against winners. Dance On Air (#4) makes her first start on tapeta after a narrow beat on the Mountaineer turf. Tapeta is the weird middle-ground between turf and dirt, so I’m taking a shot this Good Magic mare transitions well.
Race 8 selections:9-4-6
In the jockey standings, Antonio Gallardo has a 3-win edge on Gaddiel Martinez after a big week, with Israel Rodriguez a trying third 11 wins back. The trainers standings continue to be tight, with Kevin Rice beating out Scooter Davis by only two wins. See you tomorrow for more Presque Isle handicapping!
