Monday’s card was great to watch, with exciting races, turnover at the top of the jockey standings, a few big prices, and a win or two along the way. I have yet to see any kind of definitive pattern emerge with the track as of yet, but there was some rain that fell before Monday’s racing kicked off. With an eye on the weather, let’s get into this Tuesday card.
All times EDT
RACE 1 – 5 ½ furlongs, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 3:30 p.m
A very tough opener to get started. Diptique (#4) showed her love for the Erie tapeta in her first start on the synthetic, winning at a massive price last time out and turning in a 52 Beyer Speed Figure. If she runs it back, she is an easy choice here, offering what could be a higher ceiling compared to the runners she faces today. Yesterday saw the jockey standings take a massive shift, with Gaddiel Martinez taking the top spot from Antonio Gallardo. I like Martinez’s mount in this race for second, Triple Secret (#5). The daughter of Bucchero is coming off a layoff for the Randel Russel barn, which has a 19% winrate bringing horses back from long layoffs. Crystal Water (#1) is 5-for-8 in the money at Presque Isle, so I expect her to run better in her second start back from the layoff and get to third.
Race 1 selections:4-5-1
RACE 2 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 3:57
Turf Cat (#1) comes off a tough half-length loss and stays at this claiming tag, and the 4-year-old gelding gets an extra half-furlong to work with this time out. In three starts over 6 furlongs, the #1 has won twice. Israel Rodriguez gets the call once again for Turf Cat, and he’s been as hot as any other rider this meet. Gift Exchange (#5) comes down to a class where he won against some of these same horses two races ago, and he should look sharp again here. Martinez gets the call for Randall Russel’s Thunder Cane (#3), and between the Russel barn’s 27% strike rate with horses in their second start off the layoff and how hot Martinez has been riding, I’d hesitate to leave this horse out of any wagers.
Race 2 selections:1-5-3
RACE 3 – 1 mile 70 yards, Allowance Post Time: 4:24
I’m staying with Israel Rodriguez’s mounts and selecting King Mendelsshon (#5) to win this allowance race. There should be at least a bit of regression after a Beyer of 69, but the percentages of Scooter Davis extending his sprinters (36%, $2.67 ROI) and getting his winners to repeat on the track (35%, $2.26) are too profitable to ignore here. This horse has also won two of his last three starts. A Million Dreams (#1) should find this field of horses suits him better after falling to Jes See Me on May 17th. Revolutionnaire (FR) (#4) was second that day but turned in an 8-length loss in a 5th place finish last time out. I suspect this horse is classy enough to make it for the money, but not enough so to win today.
Race 3 selections:5-1-4
RACE 4 – 1 mile, Claiming $5,000 Post Time: 4:51
Not a lot to go off of in terms of form on the synthetic, leading me to go with the 6-year-old Secretary Of War (#1), trained by Matthew Kintz and jockeyed by Gaddiel Martinez. This War Dancer gelding has been the picture of consistency since last year, turning five straight speed figures between 64 and 66 since early September. Only Get’n Better (#4) should indeed do just that in his second ever start on the synthetic surface, where he faced the #1 as well as three quality horses in Van, Triple Start, and Burnin Turf. If this Not This Time son builds on that effort, I suspect he could give the #1 a run for the money in the stretch. For third, I’ll tip my cap to the 10-year-old Marsac (#3) making his 46th career start. I anticipate that some of these horses won’t run their best over the synth, leaving the door open for ol’ Marsac to get in the money.
Race 4 selections:1-4-3
RACE 5 – 1 mile, Claiming $5,000 Post Time: 5:18
Uppity Up (#3) came off the layoff a winner for Gallardo and the Kintz barn. With this mild drop in class from a $6,250 claiming tag, a bigger effort is expected from this daughter of English Channel. Xerces (#1) should find himself in a kinder spot here after running a state-bred $10k claiming race and losing by a neck, which leads me to believe he will flex his class in this race. In 10 starts, he’s only finished out of the money twice. Kitten’s War (#4) is coming off the layoff for trainer Kevin Rice, another conditioner who gets his runners to fire off a long break with a 29% win rate. Adam Rice’s La Panda (#6) takes a steep drop from the allowance level to this field and to a level where she’s won several races at, a must-have horse for any box or multirace wager. I faded her for more interesting horses, but that could come back to bite me.
Race 5 selections:3-1-4-6
RACE 6 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $8,000 Post Time: 5:45
Kotylos (#4) has been second twice under David Delgado and been very consistent at this distance, hitting the board 13 times in 20 attempts. Outsider (#2) comes off the layoff for Randall and gets Martinez, taking a steep class drop from allowance company where he was at the end of his 4-year-old campaign. The 8-year-old Wrote In Stone (#5) will be a part of the early pace and could stick around, but his last start at this distance was a last-place result. Fortunes can change, though, and I expect them to for this John Fennessy trainee.
Race 6 selections:4-2-5
RACE 7 – 1 mile 70 yards, Starter Optional Claiming $13,500 Post Time: 6:12
Winning streaks are always cool to follow, but I legitimately think La Crema (#1) could win her third race in a row stretching out to a route after a 6 furlong score. Last year in the fall, this horse did the same pattern, running 3rd in a 6 furlong race before winning over a mile and 70 yards. In order to cross the wire first, though, she’ll have to beat an old rival she’s not gotten around before, Night Nurse (#3). This 4-year-old Divining Rod filly is looking for her old form when she won 4 straight last year between August and October. Her speed figures still indicate competitiveness, but I’m playing her assuming she’ll get the short end of the stick once again. Little Miss Munny (#7) feels too obvious due to the drop from allowance company and the 3-1 morning line but sometimes the simplest angles are the best to play.
Race 7 selections:1-3-7
RACE 8 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $5,000 Post Time: 6:39
Paschal Moon (#8) may not be a bettable price, but on paper looks the most likely to win this race after scoring back-to-back victories in his last two starts. I have some interest in Riding A Dream (#6) at the 10-1 morning line after turning a weak effort in a four-horse field. If Tim Girten can get this gelding back to his form from a year ago, he’ll be a great asset to that barn. Snowname (#5) has caught two heavily biased tracks in his two starts, so it will be interesting to see how he runs if the track has less bias to it. He also comes out of the high-percentage Ron Potts, Jr. barn, making him a safe choice for third.
Race 8 selections:8-6-5
One day I’m going to finish one of these articles before 9 p.m, but today was not that day. The jockey standings are a great storyline I should point out more, with Gaddiel Martinez picking up three wins today and taking the lead in the standings while Walber Alencar and Martina Rojas each scored two, while Antonio Gallardo and Israel Rodriguez went winless. Each race went to a different trainer, so not much in the way of changes on that front. See you tomorrow for more Erie racing action!
