This year’s Robert and Beverly Lewis stakes (Susan and I sat next to them at the 2000 Kentucky Derby by the way) features a short field that is long on talent. Let’s take a look at the field from the rail out.
#1 MADAKET ROAD is part one of the Bob Baffert-trained Cerberus in this spot. And you’d think he’d be the longest price of the triumvirate. Stamped himself as a runner to keep an eye on when finishing second at graded stakes level on debut, that’s not an easy thing to do. Backed that up with a facile maiden win in a race where the form has worked out OK. Stretches to a mile today, and on his pedigree that seems questionable to me (despite these connections tendency to buy horses who can run long). I’m taking a wait-and-see attitude.
#2 CITIZEN BULL is YOUR two-year-old champion and he makes his first run since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. I am on record questioning how the form in that race will hold up given the unexpectedly slow pace after the stumble of East Ave at the break. Gaming, who was second, has done absolutely nothing to disprove my hypothesis, having run poorly twice. CB is by far the most accomplished horse in the field, but is he the fastest right now? That, gentle reader, is the question.
#3 RODRIGUEZ ran the proverbial “hole in the wind” last time, scoring a 101 Beyer Speed figure. If that’s not the fastest of his generation thus far, it’s close. We have no line on that form at all – no runbacks yet. He looks the fastest of these early and has already gone a mile, so the added ground seems unlikely to be a hindrance. Speed was good on the day of his maiden win (surface has red coding on TFUS) but there are a lot of arrows pointing in this direction and with his stablemates to make the market for him, he could be an OK wager.
#4 CLOCK TOWER looks to be a need-the-lead type whom I don’t think is fast enough to make the top against the Bafferts drawn directly to his inside. He appeared to improve mightily for turf, where he’s a Grade 3 winner and Grade 2 placed. Even at that, those are some weak figures, that wouldn’t likely get him into the money even in this five horse field.
#5 VALENTINES CANDY won his first race on his eighth try and needed statebred maiden competition to do so. Every principle of handicapping says he has no chance.
VERDICT: I am very happy to nail my colors to the mast of #4 RODRIGUEZ. There is a real chance to get value in multis here despite the short field if you single and move on (and don’t give away too much equity by over-spreading in the other legs).
He might also just make a nice win bet.
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