Road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby – The $300K Smarty Jones Stakes – By Eric Solomon

The first of four Derby Points races at Oaklawn and the first Derby Points Race for three year olds is the Smarty Jones Stakes. This race is named for the 2004 Kentucky Derby winner who blazed through prep races in Arkansas en route to his Triple Crown bid that came up just short. Last year we saw Brad Cox run 1-2 with Victory Formation winning. His stablemate, Angel of Empire, was second and he would go on to have the better season. This year, Cox will send out three runners in this race, all of which scratched out of another points race in favor of this one. 

Oaklawn Park, Sunday 1/1/22, Race 9: The $300K Smarty Jones Stakes

20 Total Derby points (10/4/3/2/1)

1 – Informed Patriot (5-1 ML, 140-1 Circa): The first of two Asmussen runners in this race is making his 5th career start today. He broke his maiden going seven furlongs in his second career try at Churchill in September. He finished 3rd in the Street Sense Stakes in a sea of slop at Churchill in October. I didn’t love his effort last out in a one turn mile at Churchill. He was pressing a hot pace and he hung around to be third, but I thought he’d run better than he did. I do think he’ll improve at two turns though, and an interesting footnote is that his full brother, Spun to Run won the Smarty Jones Stakes at Parx in 2019. He would go on to win the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at this one mile distance that same year. While I think there is upside, I don’t think he possesses the same physical attributes of his brother, otherwise I would think he would have sold for more than $90K at the Keeneland September Sale in 2022. While I wouldn’t be surprised if he won, I have mixed feelings about him today.

2 – Catching Freedom (9-2 ML, 75-1 Circa): This Constitution colt is bred to be a good one, and I think it’s very interesting that Brad Cox is entering him in this spot, along with one of his high profile Derby prospects. I really like both of his first two races. He debuted in a one turn mile at Churchill. He was well backed in that race, but he got away a step slow, and was jostled around a bit while jockeying for early position. He was in behind horses and had to wait, but once Geroux was able to get him angled out, moving about five wide off the turn, he pulled clear as a much the best winner. Cox brought him back in an allowance race at Churchill last month, where once again, he was a heavy favorite. He was jostled around again at the break, but was able to settle comfortably behind horses. There were a few early moves in that race, as he waited patiently. He was caught behind horses going into the turn and Geroux rolled the dice by keeping him inside. He never was able to get out, as the frontrunners held their position, and the eventual race winner, Parchment Party kept him pinned in while coming with his late bid. He looked loaded once again, but never really had a chance to run. He still improved upon his initial Beyer Speed Figure, while finishing 4th. The dam was graded stakes placed and a stakes winner at nine furlongs. Her first two runners, Strava and Bishops Bay, were stakes placed as well. Cristian Torres will get the mount on this one who s

3 – Lagynos (6-1 ML, 110-1 Circa): The second Asmussen runner in this field ran a sneaky good race two back in allowance company at Churchill. He finished a length better than Catching Freedom that day. He hit the front after pressing an aggressive pace at long odds. However, he was caught late when Parchment Party came over the top with a powerful late kick. Asmussen ran him back two weeks later and kept him in an allowance race that was originally scheduled to be run on the grass. Rosario rode him for the first time that day and he gets the return call here. He rode with a lot of confidence yesterday, winning three times with three excellent rides. The dam has produced some useful horses, many of which have flourished on the turf. I wouldn’t be surprised if Asmussen goes back to the grass with this one at some point, but I think he ran well enough on dirt to take a shot in a race like this. 

4 – Mystik Dan (5-1 ML, 120-1 Circa): This son of Goldencents put up a monster Beyer Speed Figure of 96 in his second career start. He ran well in a 6 ½ furlong race in his debut and then cut back to 5 ½ furlongs for that second race. He made the front and pulled away with authority. He was absolutely flat in his next start when going a one turn mile. He was close to a hot pace, but he got a dream run along the rail. He had nothing left for the stretch drive though, finishing 5th, beaten eight lengths. Nothing about his last effort makes me think that he wants to go two turns at this point in his career. I think he would have been much better suited for the Renaissance Stakes yesterday. Ken McPeek has done  a good job getting the most out of horses that appear to have a one turn oriented pedigree, but I’ll be looking elsewhere today. 

5 – Mo Winning (20-1 ML): He did not draw in off the AE list in a strong allowance race yesterday. Watching Carbone win that race makes me wonder if that spot was more difficult than this stakes race. He was very good winning his debut in a six furlong sprint last month at Remington. He’ll need to improve his speed figure by likely 20 points to win this race. I think with all of the two year old racing yesterday, Diodoro wanted to get him in a race now, as opposed to waiting for a few weeks. I think this spot will be educational for him, but he’s a tough sell on the win end for me. 

6 – Gettysburg Address (7-2 ML, 140-1 Circa): The second runner that Brad Cox is sending out is a WinStar homebred ridden by Flavien Prat. He won at first asking in August at Ellis Park when going six furlongs. He was a vet scratch when he was entered in the Iroquois Stakes in September. He made his next start in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes in the slop at Churchill. He used his rail position to secure a comfortable early lead. He cleared the field and had a comfortable lead turning for home. Perhaps it was all a little too much, too soon, because he folded up fairly quickly in the final furlong to finish a beaten 4th. It wasn’t a particularly fast race and the competition wasn’t very strong. While I do think that was a race that he can build off, I’m not convinced that this horse is as talented as some of his rivals in this field. I’d probably need to get 8-1 or better on him to begin to think about using him, and I just don’t see that happening. 

7 – Just Steel (9-5 ML, 100-1 Circa): The most experienced runner in this field comes in with seven career starts and two wins. His two wins have been very good, beating a strong maiden special weight field at the Spa on Whitney Day and the Ed Brown Stakes at Churchill. Both of those races were sprints though. His other five races have been average at best and he was nowhere to be found in his lone start at two turns. Granted that race came in the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland, but he was not competitive in that race. Rosario has been aboard for his first two wins and to see him named on Lagnyos is very telling to me. There’s other speed types posted inside of him, so I think there’s a big chance he loses ground going into the first turn. I think he’s a terrible morning line favorite, and while I think he’ll go off at odds higher than his 9-5, I still think the price is going to be too short for me to get involved. 

8 – Chaperone (30-1 ML): He broke through to break his maiden in his 4th career start at Remington at the end of November. He really wasn’t competitive in two turn maiden special weight races at Churchill prior to that effort. His speed figures have been flat, so there’s not a lot on paper that makes me think he can win this race. This is not the strongest bunch, and his connections paid close to a million dollars to own him. I guess when that kind of scratch is invested, you have to take shots like this. However, I don’t see it happening for him today. 

9 – Fidget (15-1 ML): Last year, we saw Brad Cox bring a modestly bred colt to Oaklawn Park to run in the Smarty Jones Stakes after winning a N2L allowance at Horseshoe Indianapolis. That horse was Angel of Empire and that colt went on to be second in this race last year before winning the Risen Star Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. He would finish 3rd behind only Mage and Two Phil’s in the 2023 Kentucky Derby. This year, Cox sends out this son of More Than Ready for the fourth time in his career and the second time on the dirt. After a dull debut, he broke his maiden in September on the turf in Indiana. Cox kept him there to face allowance runners in his dirt debut last month. Marcelino Pedroza had him pressing the pace before taking over the lead and winning by a measured length. His dam did most of her work on synthetic, but she was a winner in her only start in a traditional dirt route. Her first foal is nothing special, but her only career win came at this distance in a maiden allowance at Belterra. Most of her other races came on synthetic or turf. There are faster gate horses in this race, so he’ll likely have to prove that he can rate, so I’d like to see Martin Chuan find a place for him to tuck in behind horses. However, I think he has a decent amount of upside, and if we’re able to get odds that are around his 15-1 morning line number, I’d consider using him. 

The Verdict: 2-3-9

I like Catching Freedom a good deal once again today. I think he has looked the part in both of his two career starts. He never had a chance to run last out and he still improved upon his initial Beyer Speed Figure. I think he was the best horse in the allowance race and I see him taking a big step forward in his third career start. There is some sprinter speed that should ensure an honest tempo for him to close into today.

Lagnyos gets Joel Rosario to ride for Steve Asmussen, suggesting to me that he is the better of the two runners from his barn. I think he should sit a nice stalking trip in behind the speed. Rosario stole a race yesterday with an aggressive early move and I could see him doing something similar with him in this race.

Fidget comes into this race with two turn starts and one one dirt.He was a very good winner in his first dirt try in Indiana. This is a big step up in class, but I think he could take a step forward if Martin Chuan is able to get him to route. If he guns for the lead, I think he’ll be caught wide, and in trouble before the first ¼ mile is over. At longer odds, he’s worth considering though.