The second of four stops on the Derby Trail at the Fair Grounds will be the Lecomte Stakes today. A field of eight horses are entered, headed by the winner of last month’s Gun Runner Stakes, Track Phantom. A field of eight has been assembled for the first 40 point Derby Prep race of 2024.
Historically, Hard Spun used this race to start his 2007 campaign that led to in the money finishes in the Derby, Preakness, and Breeders’ Cup Classic, along with a Grade 1 score in the King’s Bishop. In 2013, Oxbow won this race which started his three year old season, which resulted in a victory in the Preakness.
Do note the Southwest Stakes, which was scheduled for next Saturday, has been rescheduled for Saturday, February 3rd, creating a day with four Derby prep races.
Fair Grounds, Saturday 1/20/24, Race 13: The Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes
40 Total Derby points (20/8/6/4/2)
1 -Next Level (30-1 ML): His best moment came at Del Mar in September when he finished 3rd in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. He’s been abysmal in his first two stakes races at two turns though, finishing a distant last in both the Grade 1 American Pharoah and the Gun Runner Stakes here last month. Sandwiched in between those races is a maiden score on this oval at this distance. He beat a soft field that day though and the lack of staying power when facing better horses at two turns is not encouraging. It is being reported that he will likely be scratched.
2 – Nash (5-2 ML, 20-1 Circa): I’m not sure what to make of his effort in the Gun Runner Stakes last month. He was a solid second behind a very fast horse in his debut at six furlongs. He was absolutely brilliant when breaking his maiden in his second start when going two turns for the first time. In his stakes debut, he was bet down to the 1-2 favorite. He had a bit of a stutter-step at the break, but nothing serious. He didn’t make the lead that day, as Track Phantom was aggressive from his outside stall. However, he seemed to be very comfortable down the backstretch, moving like a horse that was going to blow by the competition. He was asked to come after Track Phantom, and didn’t have much punch, as Snead came up along his outside and went by. He battled throughout the stretch, but could do no better than third. I didn’t see a visible excuse for his dull effort in that race, which makes it hard to get too excited about his chances in this spot. He has a better spot in the gate than he did last out and there’s less early speed signed on for this race. Assuming that Next Level defects, his rail draw could help him set the tempo this time, taking it to Track Phantom early. He’s the second choice on the morning line and is currently tied for the fourth lowest price on the Futures Board at Circa, behind only Dornoch, Nysos, and Fierceness, so there is a definite belief in his ability. He could very well win this race with ease, but there’s enough there to be concerned. As a result, I see little value with this one.
3 – Tizzy Indy (30-1 ML): The second of two Keith Desormeaux longshots was most recently a distant third in an optional claiming/starter allowance race over the local turf. He broke his maiden three back with $20K maiden claimers and was unable to beat a soft starter allowance filed at Churchill two starts back. Traditionally, the Fair Grounds cards an allowance race for three year olds on this card, and there was a race under those conditions in the condition book. Perhaps that race not filling is the reason we’re seeing him in this spot, where he feels hopelessly overmatched.
4 – Can Group (6-1 ML, 300-1 Circa): This seems like the right time to take a shot in a stakes race on the dirt for this Grade 2 winning son of Good Samaritan. He was third in his debut in the slop and then as distant third behind graded stakes winners Timberlake and West Saratoga in his second career try. He moved to turf and broke his maiden at Kentucky Downs and then went on to score at 27-1 in the Grade 2 Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland in October. Most recently, he ran well to be 4th, beaten only two lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Casse could have waited for the Grade 3 Kitten’s Joy Stakes in two weeks on the turf at Gulfstream, however, why not take a chance on the dirt in a Derby Points race, especially at this point in the season, before the races get tougher. If this doesn’t work out, he can always come back in the Colonel Liam Stakes in March, which could set him up for a nice spring campaign on the grass. If it does work out, that would give Casse plenty of options on either surface moving forward. His sire was a Grade 2 winner on turf and dirt, and one of his Grade 2 wins came on this oval in the New Orleans Classic Stakes. His dam is an unraced daughter of Street Sense, so there is definitely dirt ability in his pedigree. He likes to come from behind and the long stretch here could suit that style. I think he’s an interesting runner that has some serious upside in this race.
5 – Ethan Energy (4-1 ML, 90-1 Circa): The second of three Brad Cox runners entered in this race is coming off a strong effort in maiden special weight company in his most recent start. He was much sharper from the gate in that race compared to his debut, where he broke at the back of a large field at Keeneland. He never really was able to get involved that day, but he was much more engaged last time. He actually broke first, but settled in the middle of the pack. Geroux had to ride him a little bit to get him going, but once he did, he was gone. He circled up four wide and moved by the leaders with ease. The runner-up, El Magnifico, wasn’t great in his next start, so there’s questions about the quality of the field he beat. He’s capable of coming from off the pace, which is encouraging, and if his odds go higher than Can Group’s, I could talk myself into using him. Geroux riding Nash tells me that he thinks that colt is the better prospect. Luis Saez is an excellent replacement though. I’m leaning against him in this race, but at higher odds, I could reconsider.
6 – Lat Long (8-1 ML, 250-1 Circa): He outlasted an average maiden special weight field when making his 5th career start last month at Oaklawn. His effort was given a bump when the runner-up from that race, Common Defense, easily won his next start last weekend. He has finished in the money in all five starts, losing to both Dornoch and Track Phantom. Track Phantom was almost five lengths better than him when they hooked up two starts ago. I haven’t seen enough growth in that span to make me think that he’s going to be able to ship here and close that gap while facing winners for the first time.
7 – Track Phantom (9-5 ML, 40-1 Circa): He led the majority of the way in the Gun Runner and was able to hold off both Snead and Nash despite being a part of a solid tempo on the front end. He’s progressed nicely over his first four races for Steve Asmussen. Cristian Torres rode him perfectly that afternoon, while Joel Rosario had the assignment on his stablemate, Risk It, who was not nearly as impressive. Rosario is back in the saddle on this son of Quality Road, who is in search of his third straight win. I thought he was up against it from a pace standpoint in that race, but he broke well, and challenged longshot Next Level early, leaving something in the tank for the end of the race. He paired his last two Beyer figures, so there’s reason to believe that this is a race where he could move forward again. If he can outsprint Nash in the early going, I think he’ll beat him again. If Geroux is more aggressive with that one, I can see them engaging in battle for a good part of this race. While Nash could easily wind up being the better horse, I think Track Phantom is better right now.
8 – Awesome Road (8-1 ML, 150-1 Circa): The third Brad Cox runner was cross-entered in the Leonatus Stakes at Turfway, which will now be redrawn for next week after they canceled racing this weekend due to bitter cold temperatures. He’s the only runner that Cox entered in that race and the class relief offered in that spot might be a plus for this son on Quality Road. He was brilliant in his debut at Ellis, but his last two races, which were graded stakes routes, were not his best. He finished double-digit lengths behind the winner in both of those races. While I think the field was stronger in the Breeders’ Futurity, I don’t see the Kentucky Jockey Club field being that much better than this group. I suspect he’s going to be more effective in one turn races. It is being reported that he will be scratched from this spot.
The Verdict: 4-2-7
While I don’t see this prep race as a particularly good betting race, I am intrigued with Can Group, trying the dirt at two turns for the first time today. He is a Grade 2 winner and he showed a lot of growth toward the end of his two year old campaign. He met a pair of next out graded stakes winners in his last start on the dirt, and his pedigree suggests that he can handle the main track. If Nash and Track Phantom go hard after each other, I think he could be the best beneficiary. I’d like to get better than his 6-1 morning line figure, but as the 4th choice in the wagering, I’d be willing to take a chance.
Track Phantom bested Nash in the Gun Runner Stakes last out. I thought the effort was strong for Track Phantom in a race where the setup for him wasn’t great on paper. Longshot Next Level forced a stronger early pace, but he stayed the course, pressuring him from the outside until he folded, and holding off a dedicated closer in Snead and the heavy favorite, Nash, who wasn’t nearly as effective when coming from off the pace. His speed figures suggest that this could be a spot where he hits another career top, which would make him very dangerous. He’s the morning line favorite, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Nash take more money at the windows, thus creating a little bit of value on him.
However, with the defection of Next Level in this race, there doesn’t appear to be a third party candidate to join the early pace battle. With Nash drawing the rail, he should be able to secure better early positioning against his rival, Track Phantom. Nash was excellent when he was able to dictate the terms two starts back at Churchill. He didn’t run his best race when racing behind horses last time out. If he’s going to rebound, this is the ideal spot for him to do so. Track Phantom ran too well in the Gun Runner to exclude him this time around. While I think Nash has the higher ceiling, his foundation gave him the advantage last time out. He is eligible to improve off that race, and if the odds disparity between Nash and him widens, he’d be more interesting.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 150th Kentucky Derby on May 4th, 2024. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
